NIGERIAN ELECTIONS: KADUNA NUMBERS GAME

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000731 SIPDIS SIPDIS DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/17/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI SUBJECT: NIGERIAN ELECTIONS: KADUNA NUMBERS GAME Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4. (b & d). ¶1. (C) Poloff and GSO formed one of two teams observing the April 14 Gubernatorial elections in Nigeria's Kaduna State. Poloff's team visited over 30 polling stations: some were in the cities of Kaduna and Zaria, a number along the road between them, and others off a side road to the North and West of Zaria. A second team started in Kaduna and made a wide swing through the southern half of Kaduna state and visited about 20 more polling places. Both teams visited stations in the cities, as well as large and small towns. On the whole, while we witnessed several outbreaks of fisticuffs, as well as some blatant cases of intimidation and ballot box stealing, as well as a generous dose of almost comic chaos, we found the actual conduct of the election at least not awful in most areas. ¶2. (C) Throughout the day, we attempted to keep an eye on one statistic: how many people were actually able to vote. Our observation was that, while we found no polls open at the official opening time of 8:00AM, they were open in most places by 10:00 or soon thereafter. All but one station closed by 3:15PM. Because the voter's registers (which averaged about 500 names) at the polling stations were not arranged in either alphabetical or numerical order, the presiding officer at each station had to go through the register (usually around 27 pages) to find each voter. In the early part of the day, this process took 5 to 7 minutes per voter. While most presiding officers got better at this over the course of the day, our sense is that it still took some time, with an average of about two minutes per voter being about right and consistent with our observation over the course of the day. Polling stations we visited in the early afternoon were still working on their first book of 100 ballots. ¶3. (C) Toward the end of, or just after, the polling period, were able to visit about nine polling stations. All but one had started with five books, or 500 blank ballots, and had used about one and a half books by the end of the day. A few used slightly less, a couple slightly more. This is consistent with the rate of about two minutes per voter we were seeing all day and with the polls being open for about five hours. We therefore presume the turnout in Kaduna state was in the ballpark of 30 percent. Our colleagues who went south from Kaduna said the polls opened a bit earlier, more like 9:30 than 10:00, but we still think the overall turnout was somewhere in the mid-30s. Comment: You Do the Math -------------- ¶4. (C) The announced results for Kaduna state show that the PDP candidate won with about 1.3 million votes, and that just under 2 million were cast in the state, which has 3.3 million registered voters. This indicates a turnout of about 60 percent. Neither of our observer teams saw a turnout at any single polling station anywhere near this figure, nor, based on the procedure being followed, do we see how this would have been physically possible in the available time. Our sense is that something like 750,000 to 800,000 "votes" were added to the Kaduna state total, perhaps by direct ballot stuffing, but more likely at one of the several collation levels after the actual polling station. Our ability to call the Kaduna event an "election" must be tempered by this reality. End comment. CAMPBELL