NIGERIA'S ELECTIONS: HOPES TO HOLD ROUND TWO

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000716 SIPDIS SIPDIS DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/15/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI ELECTIONS SUBJECT: NIGERIA'S ELECTIONS: HOPES TO HOLD ROUND TWO REF: ABUJA 709 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4. (b & d). ¶1. (C) Nigeria's April 14 Gubernatorial and State elections were held amid much confusion and problems throughout the country. Across Nigeria, polls opened late, were staffed by inadequately trained officials who lacked enough and/or proper voting materials and possessed either incomplete or inaccurate voter,s lists. In most parts of the nation where elections took place, voting did not commence until about 10 AM. Embassy observers in Enugu, and Anambra states report the polls opened briefly, if at all, throughout the states, and we have reports from Delta, Rivers and other states of a similar situation. In those places where there was voting, poll workers used a variety of methods to accomplish their appointed tasks for the day, but in few places did they adhere to the basic procedures, evidently due to a lack of training and familiarity with the process. Among the problems, the incomplete and innacurate voters list added to the confusion. Taking on average several minutes, and as long as 30 minutes in some cases, to find a voter on the list slowed down the process during the day. ¶2. (C) The elections and the announcements of winners have been marred by serious, sporadic violence nationwide in each of the six geopolitical zones. A nationwide ban on political activity and curfews in key areas announced April 16 could dampen the potential for violence to spread. INEC has yet to announce the results in several key states and will most likely do so after curfew hours in an effort to limit any possible violent reaction to the announced results. In addition to the curfews in select cities, the government of Nigeria has deployed the military to potential flashpoints throughout the country. As of April 16, demonstrations and/or property damage have been reported in Katsina, Kano, Gombe, Bauchi, Adamawa, Taraba, Benue, Nasarawa, Kogi, Enugu, Ebonyi, Anambra, Rivers, Bayelsa, Delta, Edo, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo and Ekiti - 21 of 36 states. ¶3. (C) While the count is coming in slowly for some flashpoint areas, many people have gathered in the streets in those areas awaiting announcements. The opposition parties have yet to decide on a course of action in response to very high totals announced for some areas where no elections were held (as most observers, including our own, believe is the case in Anambra, Delta and Rivers),and in response to what many partisans are likely to view as phony "results" announced by INEC. (Comment: Despite the many shortcomings of last Saturday's poll, our guess is that the violence will diminish over the next couple of days, allowing the Presidential election to hold. That said, if the logistical problems that plagued these elections are repeated, and dubious results are again announced for many areas, the popular reaction could produce more of a reaction next week. End comment.) CAMPBELL