Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ABUJA705
2007-04-13 14:36:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abuja
how-toVZCZCXRO4947 PP RUEHPA DE RUEHUJA #0705 1031436 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 131436Z APR 07 ZDK FM AMEMBASSY ABUJA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9176 INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW 0239 RUEHCD/AMCONSUL CIUDAD JUAREZ 0235 RUEHOS/AMCONSUL LAGOS 6591 RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000705
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/12/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI
SUBJECT: FCT MINISTER SHARES POLL DATA
Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4. (b & d).
C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000705
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/12/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI
SUBJECT: FCT MINISTER SHARES POLL DATA
Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4. (b & d).
1. (C) Minister of the Federal Capital Territory Nasir
el-Rufai requested a meeting in order to brief on the latest
political information from the Presidency. He did so under
the guise of President Obasanjo's "promise to keep missions
informed." He showed copies of polling data from throughout
the country that had been used, although very late, in the
PDP candidate Musa Yar'Adua's campaign. He did not leave
copies of the data.
2. (C) He commented the President Obasanjo was not happy
with the parts that showed that Nigerians view his
administration (and he personally) as corrupt, that Nigerians
want a change of leadership (and someone that is not a puppet
of the current administration) and that Nigerians view the
candidates rather than the party as the most important factor
in deciding for whom to vote. The polling data also showed
that ANPP candidate Muhammadu Buhari was much more widely
known than Yar'Adua and that, while neither were prime
factors, religion is more important than ethnicity in all
regions of the country except the Southeast.
3. (C) The polling data suggested an extremely close race
for the Presidency with Yar'Adua behind in many places that
the PDP did not expect. It did not address local factors
developing throughout the nation, however, but did provide a
broad framework for the final days of the campaign. Rufai
said that, based on the data, the PDP was making a greater
effort to limit Obasanjo's campaigning and to push Yar'Adua
into the limelight.
4. (C) At the end of the briefing, Rufai commented that he
was worried about violence. He said that "we are getting
reports of violence in unexpected places." He commented that
he was even unsure about the situation in Abuja and had
called a special security meeting for April 12. Rufai said
that he had advised his security teams to "call in the
military" to ensure security in Abuja during the election
period.
5. (C) COMMENT: It was unclear what message el-Rufai was
delivering to the Ambassador or even if he had been
specifically authorized to share the data with us. Had the
message been to prepare the USG for news of a PDP sweep or,
conversely, a PDP defeat it would have appeared reasonable.
To suggest that the President was shocked that party loyalty
was not a big factor in elections and predict a race tight
enough to likely require a runoff do not seem good reasons
for the briefing. In any event, some of the questions
outstanding will be answered in the next 24 to 48 hours.
CAMPBELL
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/12/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI
SUBJECT: FCT MINISTER SHARES POLL DATA
Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4. (b & d).
1. (C) Minister of the Federal Capital Territory Nasir
el-Rufai requested a meeting in order to brief on the latest
political information from the Presidency. He did so under
the guise of President Obasanjo's "promise to keep missions
informed." He showed copies of polling data from throughout
the country that had been used, although very late, in the
PDP candidate Musa Yar'Adua's campaign. He did not leave
copies of the data.
2. (C) He commented the President Obasanjo was not happy
with the parts that showed that Nigerians view his
administration (and he personally) as corrupt, that Nigerians
want a change of leadership (and someone that is not a puppet
of the current administration) and that Nigerians view the
candidates rather than the party as the most important factor
in deciding for whom to vote. The polling data also showed
that ANPP candidate Muhammadu Buhari was much more widely
known than Yar'Adua and that, while neither were prime
factors, religion is more important than ethnicity in all
regions of the country except the Southeast.
3. (C) The polling data suggested an extremely close race
for the Presidency with Yar'Adua behind in many places that
the PDP did not expect. It did not address local factors
developing throughout the nation, however, but did provide a
broad framework for the final days of the campaign. Rufai
said that, based on the data, the PDP was making a greater
effort to limit Obasanjo's campaigning and to push Yar'Adua
into the limelight.
4. (C) At the end of the briefing, Rufai commented that he
was worried about violence. He said that "we are getting
reports of violence in unexpected places." He commented that
he was even unsure about the situation in Abuja and had
called a special security meeting for April 12. Rufai said
that he had advised his security teams to "call in the
military" to ensure security in Abuja during the election
period.
5. (C) COMMENT: It was unclear what message el-Rufai was
delivering to the Ambassador or even if he had been
specifically authorized to share the data with us. Had the
message been to prepare the USG for news of a PDP sweep or,
conversely, a PDP defeat it would have appeared reasonable.
To suggest that the President was shocked that party loyalty
was not a big factor in elections and predict a race tight
enough to likely require a runoff do not seem good reasons
for the briefing. In any event, some of the questions
outstanding will be answered in the next 24 to 48 hours.
CAMPBELL