FCT MINISTER SHARES POLL DATA

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000705 SIPDIS SIPDIS DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/12/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI SUBJECT: FCT MINISTER SHARES POLL DATA Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4. (b & d). ¶1. (C) Minister of the Federal Capital Territory Nasir el-Rufai requested a meeting in order to brief on the latest political information from the Presidency. He did so under the guise of President Obasanjo's "promise to keep missions informed." He showed copies of polling data from throughout the country that had been used, although very late, in the PDP candidate Musa Yar'Adua's campaign. He did not leave copies of the data. ¶2. (C) He commented the President Obasanjo was not happy with the parts that showed that Nigerians view his administration (and he personally) as corrupt, that Nigerians want a change of leadership (and someone that is not a puppet of the current administration) and that Nigerians view the candidates rather than the party as the most important factor in deciding for whom to vote. The polling data also showed that ANPP candidate Muhammadu Buhari was much more widely known than Yar'Adua and that, while neither were prime factors, religion is more important than ethnicity in all regions of the country except the Southeast. ¶3. (C) The polling data suggested an extremely close race for the Presidency with Yar'Adua behind in many places that the PDP did not expect. It did not address local factors developing throughout the nation, however, but did provide a broad framework for the final days of the campaign. Rufai said that, based on the data, the PDP was making a greater effort to limit Obasanjo's campaigning and to push Yar'Adua into the limelight. ¶4. (C) At the end of the briefing, Rufai commented that he was worried about violence. He said that "we are getting reports of violence in unexpected places." He commented that he was even unsure about the situation in Abuja and had called a special security meeting for April 12. Rufai said that he had advised his security teams to "call in the military" to ensure security in Abuja during the election period. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: It was unclear what message el-Rufai was delivering to the Ambassador or even if he had been specifically authorized to share the data with us. Had the message been to prepare the USG for news of a PDP sweep or, conversely, a PDP defeat it would have appeared reasonable. To suggest that the President was shocked that party loyalty was not a big factor in elections and predict a race tight enough to likely require a runoff do not seem good reasons for the briefing. In any event, some of the questions outstanding will be answered in the next 24 to 48 hours. CAMPBELL