APRIL ELECTIONS, A SHAM IN SHAMBLES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000666 SIPDIS C O R R E C T E D COPY -- CORRECTED CLASSIFICATION SIPDIS DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY E.O. 12958: CLASSIFIED BY POL MLIERMANS FOR REASONS 1.4(B) & (D) TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM NI SUBJECT: APRIL ELECTIONS, A SHAM IN SHAMBLES REF: ABUJA 598 AND PREVIOUS ABUJA 00000666 001.8 OF 002 ¶1. (C) Summary: American election partners to date have yet to see a template or ballot for next month's elections. Despite assurances from INEC chairman Professor Maurice Iwu, there is no evidence that any of the estimated 300 million ballots needed have been designed, printed or distributed. This combined with no apparent centralized voter registration list, no indication as to where the polls will be located and no concrete accreditation process for election observes leave many questioning INEC,s role in preparing for the elections. Despite what appears to be considerable hurdles to overcome, President Obasanjo has declared as recently as this week that elections will go forward as planned. Election partners once again stressed their belief that Nigeria is in the midst of a political crisis and that many outside of the country have yet to recognize this or its future implications. ¶2. (C) Ambassador, DCM, Poloffs and USAID officials met with representatives from IRI, NDI and IFES on March 29 and again on April 5 to discuss Nigeria's progress in preparing for the upcoming elections. As election day approaches, the level of frustration among the election partners continues to grow. INEC has yet to show any evidence of election preparedness. Tensions are starting to rise as evidenced by INEC chairman Iwu,s contentious meeting with the IFES country director when pressed for details on ballots. Election Preparation -------------- ¶3. (C) The election partners conceded that despite assurances from Chairman Iwu and other INEC officials, no one had seen either an election ballot or a template for such a ballot. Press reports quoted INEC National Commissioner in charge of information and publicity, Barrister Phillip Umeadi saying, "...the biggest printing press in the world can only print 1.2 million copies in a day, so you figure that out yourself. We have just 17 days to the elections. So, you add up the details." While no formal announcement has been made as to who has been contracted to produce the ballots, sources suggest that the original contract was given to the Nigerian mint. They in turn have subcontracted the work out to a South African firm with connections to Nigerian Andy Uba, among others. ¶4. (C) As the European Union, NDI, IRI IFES and other international organizations begin to send their long term election observers to Nigeria, INEC has still not finalized its terms of accreditation for observers. INEC has stated that it will cap international observers at 2,000 and domestic observers at 60,000. INEC has also changed its accreditation policy once again stating that all observers must be accredited in Abuja exactly 3 days prior to elections. Many questions have arisen from this policy and according to IFES representatives the policy is moving, but in what direction remains to be seen. For now, it appears that diplomats will be able to provide some level of election monitoring regardless of what accreditation policy INEC settles on. Additionally, if history is any guide, the accreditation will happen at the eleventh hour will all international observers granted access to the polling locations. Both EU and NGO election observers have reported being harassed by the Nigerian State Security Service because they have not been officially accredited by INEC. ¶5. (C) The election partners conceded that there appears to be no centralized voter registration list. The lists that have been generated appear to be flawed at best or perhaps fraudulent at worse. INEC has not officially released the voter lists to the political parties, but it is widely believed that they are aware of the lists. To that end, none of the major three political parties have registered any form of complaint, official or otherwise. INEC stated that the lists would be made public the week of 2 April, but all parties believe this to be another round of hollow pledges from Prof. Maurice Iwu. ¶6. (C) INEC announced that Nigerian firm Reltel had been awarded the contract to electronically transfer the election results from around Nigeria to INEC for final tallying. The ABUJA 00000666 002.6 OF 002 contract was awarded after none of the major communications firms in the region registered bids for the job as the political implications were deemed too risky. INEC announced that the results would be transmitted using VSAT (very small aperture technology) systems. This appeared to be a positive step until the IFES representative noted that VSAT had been tried in Australia during its elections to transmit data from remote regions in the continent. There, due to the technical nature of the equipment, the results were poor and unreliable. Additionally, the equipment requires a highly trained operator and a steady supply of electricity, both of which are in short supply in Nigeria. INEC has begun hiring poll workers for the election, but to what extent is unclear. There have been no ad campaigns or media blitzes recruiting workers, and to date the poll locations themselves have not been announced. It is assumed that poll workers have not been trained at this point either, which is of concern to all election partners. Reaction to INEC -------------- ¶7. (C) Surprisingly, there has been little to no reaction by either the political parties or civil society. Each entity seems resigned to the fact that elections, in some form, will take place and to some extent that the result has already been determined. Some election partners equate this to fatalism among the Nigerian populace and that they are truly powerless to effect any real change by voting. Election partners point out that there is most likely competitive rigging taking place and that each political party has its own interests in mind by not voicing opposition to the lack of preparation by INEC or the apparent signs of fraud already displayed. While the parties are not reacting, small groups of individuals are. There have been reports of sporadic violence at campaign rallies against major party candidates including PDP, AC and ANPP. These confrontations have not been widely reported in the press, but come from election partners throughout Nigeria and highlight an undercurrent of frustration by the populace leading up to the election. COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) Election partners have posited that elections will go on, and that Nigerians will accept anything that gets President Obasanjo out of office. However, how close they associate Musa Umar Yar'Adua with Obasanjo remains to be seen. If President Obasanjo is seen as still controlling PDP even after he leaves office then the level of acceptability of a Yar'Adua victory will be considerably less. The inability of INEC to formulate a coherent policy on observer accreditation as well as the conducting of the elections have many concerned about the quality of the upcoming elections. CAMPBELL