Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ABUJA583
2007-03-26 14:02:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:
ELECTIONS SNAPSHOTS #5
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UNCLAS ABUJA 000583
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
DOE FOR CAROLYN GAYE
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS SNAPSHOTS #5
REF: A. ABUJA 131
B. 06 ABUJA 3216
C. 06 ABUJA 3061
D. 06 ABUJA 2917
THIS CABLE IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. NOT FOR INTERNET
DISTRIBUTION.
UNCLAS ABUJA 000583
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
DOE FOR CAROLYN GAYE
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS SNAPSHOTS #5
REF: A. ABUJA 131
B. 06 ABUJA 3216
C. 06 ABUJA 3061
D. 06 ABUJA 2917
THIS CABLE IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. NOT FOR INTERNET
DISTRIBUTION.
1. (SBU) This cable is the fifth in a series of elections
snapshots designed to provide a sense of the local
environment in the run up to the elections planned for April
2007. In-depth information will continue to be reported in
septels, with the snapshot format being used to convey
interesting and pertinent anecdotes or facts. Post welcomes
any comments or suggestions.
THE CANDIDATES AND CAMPAIGNS
--------------
2. (SBU) This Day newspaper published an opinion poll on
March 11 indicating Yar'Adua is the presidential
front-runner. According to the results, Yar'Adua is likely
to make a "strong showing" in almost all the 36 states,
securing the consitutionally required twenty five percent of
votes case in over 30 states on the first ballot. With
regard to gubernatorial races, the poll predicts, if
elections were held today, PDP would win outrightly in 16 of
the 36 states, including: Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Bayelsa,
Delta, Ogun, Oyo, Anambra, Osun, Kebbi, Kwara, Kogi, Niger,
Bauchi, Gombe, and Kaduna. Polling data shows the
gubernatorial race will be close in Abia, Enugu, Imo, Edo,
Ebonyi, Ondo, Ekiti, Nassarawa, Benue, Adamawa, Taraba, and
Katsina states -- with AC and/or ANPP candidates threatening
to overtake PDP. According to the poll, the PDP, which
remains solidly in control of the south-south zones, may
manage to wrestle control from the ANPP in the North-West
states of Kebbi, Jigawa and Sokoto states.
3. (SBU) COMMENT: A senior member of This Day's editorial
board told Polcouns on March 23 that his publisher had
received "millions" from the Presidency to print data
designed to look like polling data. He claims no poll had
been undertaken by the newspaper. END COMMENT.
4. (SBU) The 24 presidential candidates and their running
mates are scheduled to participate in a four-day presidential
debate beginning April 1. The debates are organized by the
Nigerian Elections Debate Group, the National Broadcasting
Commission, the National Orientation Agency, the National
Democratic Institute (NDI),and the UN Development Programme.
At present, Vice President Atiku is not scheduled to appear
in the debates as he is not on the INEC candidates list.
ELECTION PREPARATIONS
--------------
5. (SBU) Leadership newspaper published a photograph on its
front page March 22 of what it claims is an INEC polling
station supplies bag and its contents. The paper allegedly
obtained the sample of the supplies (which INEC will send to
each polling station) from an INEC contact. The supply bag
is stamped with the INEC logo and includes blue Papermate
"Erasermate" pens (erasable ball points). According the the
newspaper report, INEC will instruct polling officials to
remove the pen caps, which clearly have an eraser, when
placing the pens at the voting stations. (COMMENT: With the
caps removed, the pens appear to be plain blue ballpoint
stick pens. Few Nigerians are familiar with erasable pens so
the Erasermate name on the pen would not raise suspicion
among most voters. END COMMENT.)
5. (SBU) Of Interest: Nigeria has never had a president with
a college degree. A win by Yar'Adua or Atiku (or a few of
the lesser-known candidates) would be the first by a college
graduate.
CAMPBELL
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
DOE FOR CAROLYN GAYE
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS SNAPSHOTS #5
REF: A. ABUJA 131
B. 06 ABUJA 3216
C. 06 ABUJA 3061
D. 06 ABUJA 2917
THIS CABLE IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. NOT FOR INTERNET
DISTRIBUTION.
1. (SBU) This cable is the fifth in a series of elections
snapshots designed to provide a sense of the local
environment in the run up to the elections planned for April
2007. In-depth information will continue to be reported in
septels, with the snapshot format being used to convey
interesting and pertinent anecdotes or facts. Post welcomes
any comments or suggestions.
THE CANDIDATES AND CAMPAIGNS
--------------
2. (SBU) This Day newspaper published an opinion poll on
March 11 indicating Yar'Adua is the presidential
front-runner. According to the results, Yar'Adua is likely
to make a "strong showing" in almost all the 36 states,
securing the consitutionally required twenty five percent of
votes case in over 30 states on the first ballot. With
regard to gubernatorial races, the poll predicts, if
elections were held today, PDP would win outrightly in 16 of
the 36 states, including: Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Bayelsa,
Delta, Ogun, Oyo, Anambra, Osun, Kebbi, Kwara, Kogi, Niger,
Bauchi, Gombe, and Kaduna. Polling data shows the
gubernatorial race will be close in Abia, Enugu, Imo, Edo,
Ebonyi, Ondo, Ekiti, Nassarawa, Benue, Adamawa, Taraba, and
Katsina states -- with AC and/or ANPP candidates threatening
to overtake PDP. According to the poll, the PDP, which
remains solidly in control of the south-south zones, may
manage to wrestle control from the ANPP in the North-West
states of Kebbi, Jigawa and Sokoto states.
3. (SBU) COMMENT: A senior member of This Day's editorial
board told Polcouns on March 23 that his publisher had
received "millions" from the Presidency to print data
designed to look like polling data. He claims no poll had
been undertaken by the newspaper. END COMMENT.
4. (SBU) The 24 presidential candidates and their running
mates are scheduled to participate in a four-day presidential
debate beginning April 1. The debates are organized by the
Nigerian Elections Debate Group, the National Broadcasting
Commission, the National Orientation Agency, the National
Democratic Institute (NDI),and the UN Development Programme.
At present, Vice President Atiku is not scheduled to appear
in the debates as he is not on the INEC candidates list.
ELECTION PREPARATIONS
--------------
5. (SBU) Leadership newspaper published a photograph on its
front page March 22 of what it claims is an INEC polling
station supplies bag and its contents. The paper allegedly
obtained the sample of the supplies (which INEC will send to
each polling station) from an INEC contact. The supply bag
is stamped with the INEC logo and includes blue Papermate
"Erasermate" pens (erasable ball points). According the the
newspaper report, INEC will instruct polling officials to
remove the pen caps, which clearly have an eraser, when
placing the pens at the voting stations. (COMMENT: With the
caps removed, the pens appear to be plain blue ballpoint
stick pens. Few Nigerians are familiar with erasable pens so
the Erasermate name on the pen would not raise suspicion
among most voters. END COMMENT.)
5. (SBU) Of Interest: Nigeria has never had a president with
a college degree. A win by Yar'Adua or Atiku (or a few of
the lesser-known candidates) would be the first by a college
graduate.
CAMPBELL