MISSION PLANS TO OBSERVE NIGERIAN ELECTIONS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000582 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W, AF/EX DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY AID/W FOR AFR/WA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV ASEC AMGT EAID KDEM NI ELECTIONS SUBJECT: MISSION PLANS TO OBSERVE NIGERIAN ELECTIONS ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Nigerians are scheduled to vote for Governors and State Assembly members on April 14 and for the President and National Assembly members on April 21. These elections will mark the first transition of power from one civilian government to another in Nigeria's history. Elections observation will be the Mission's top priority in April. We plan to place accredited Mission staff in the field throughout Nigeria's six geopolitical zones and conduct an independent vote tallying exercise, with the help of other domestic and international partners. We are hopeful we can credibly report not only on the conduct of the elections themselves, but also on the validity of announced results in the Presidential election and perhaps some of the gubernatorial races as well. END SUMMARY. OBSERVATION EFFORTS -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The Mission will place observers (accredited diplomatic and official passport holders) in all six geopolitical zones for both the April 14 and 21 elections, fielding approximately 40 and 60 observers, respectively. Regional observation teams will be coordinated from the following hubs: (1) Abuja for North-Central and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT); (2) Bauchi for the North-East; (3) Kano for the North-West; (4) Enugu for the South-East; (5) Benin City for the South-South; and (6) Lagos for the South-West. Local police and Mission security personnel will work closely with the hub coordinators to ensure the quick flow of information both to and from observation teams. Hub coordinators will collect anecdotal information from the Mission teams, look for regional trends, and report back to the Embassy control room, in addition to conducting their own observations over the course of the day. Once the polls close, hub coordinators will compile and report tally results to the Abuja control room (see Para 5 below). Approximately 10 locally engaged staff (LES) will be sent to the various regions to support hub coordinators and offer regional expertise to deployed teams. Should run-off elections be necessary, observer teams will be sent to areas deemed to be strategically important given the identities of the remaining candidates. ¶3. (SBU) Mission observers in all geopolitical zones will visit some of Nigeria's 120,000 polling stations to assess the mechanics of the voting procedure and determine if adequate fraud prevention safeguards are in place. Observers will also look out for voting irregularities, including intimidation by polling officials, party agents, or police, voting by ineligible individuals, ballot box stuffing or substitution, and attempts to influence voters' behavior. Security permitting, observers will be present for ballot counting at various polling stations and collation centers. The week between local and national elections allows time for Mission observers to regroup in Abuja and Lagos to compare notes and, if necessary, adjust strategies. USAID CEPS partners will hold an elections observation training session for Mission observers on April 5. ¶4. (SBU) Regional team size varies based on the expanse of the territory covered and the relative importance given to observations gathered in certain places expected to be "hotspots." The largest contingent of observers will be sent to the North-West, while (for security reasons) the smallest contingent will be positioned in the South-South. Teams will travel in pairs and be accompanied by local Nigerian police personnel. Given the significant existing and potential security concerns, no observers will be sent to the following states: Rivers, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom, and Delta States. Depending on incidents prior to the election and conditions on elections day, other cities or states may also be proscribed by the Regional Security Office. Prior to elections, hub coordinators will make advance trips to their respective regions to meet with stakeholders and Resident Electoral Commissioners, sketch out possible travel routes, identify polling stations, and confirm hotel and other logistical arrangements. VERIFYING THE PRESIDENTIAL VOTE COUNT ABUJA 00000582 002 OF 002 -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The Mission has developed a spreadsheet by which we will attempt to independently verify the validity of announced results of the Presidential and Gubernatorial elections. The Mission will enlist the assistance of other international observers, domestic observers, political party polling agents and polling officials to share vote tallies from individual polling stations with hub coordinators. Based on a sampling of results from 5,000 or more polling stations, post estimates our calculations of final results to be accurate to within 2 percent for the Presidential election. The same reports will also provide a snapshot of any problems on election day, including stolen ballot boxes, lack of voting, etc. Data from duplicative sources (i.e. NGO observers and a political party) can be used to spot check the validity of the data received. Once in possession of the data, hub coordinators will then call this data in to the Abuja control room for entry into specially designed spreadsheets. Based on the necessary 5,000 data points, each hub may be reporting results from approximately 850 polling centers (allowing for some duplication of reports for validation purposes). Post and Washington may wish to use the results of this statistical exercise to craft public statements regarding the validity of announced results of the elections. BUDGET FOR THE ELECTION OBSERVATION EFFORT -------------- ¶6. (U) Post Management will communicate with AF/EX via septel regarding the cost of election coverage and its implications for the Mission's budget. CAMPBELL