AS EXPECTED, ATIKU DISQUALIFIED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000523 SIPDIS SIPDIS DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/16/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI SUBJECT: AS EXPECTED, ATIKU DISQUALIFIED REF: A. 06 ABUJA 2773 ¶B. ABUJA 492 ¶C. ABUJA 491 ABUJA 00000523 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Thomas P. Furey for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). ¶1. (C) The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has followed through on its threat and excluded Nigerian Vice-President Atiku Abubakar from next month's presidential race. INEC made its announcement at a March 15 press conference, in which it released a list of 24 approved presidential candidates (septel). Atiku was the only major candidate excluded. The Vice-President and his advisors told us they anticipated INEC's announcement and plan to go to court to seek an injunction in hope of getting his name on the ballot. ¶2. (C) The announcement by INEC marked the latest chapter in a long period of controversy and confusion over which candidates would appear on the ballot during next month's elections. In September 2006, an Administrative Panel of Inquiry set up by the government and chaired by the Attorney General indicted Vice-President Atiku over his involvement in an diversion of funds from the Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF). The GON subsequently gazetted the indictment and declared Atiku ineligible based on the constitutional provision barring anyone indicted by such a panel for certain (mainly corruption related) offenses from running for president (ref A). ¶3. (C) INEC Chairman Maurice Iwu had told us he would exclude Atiku because of the indictment, unless a Supreme court decision directed him to do otherwise (ref B). Atiku's strategy has been to challenge the legality of the Administrative Panel which indicted him, as well as the right of INEC and Iwu, as opposed to the courts, to rule on such complex legal issues. He points to numerous rulings in lower courts--the Lagos State High Court and the Abuja Court of Appeals--as legal precedents supporting his case and claim to eligibility. ¶4. (C) The case that appears most relevant regards the setup and conduct of the Administrative panel which indicted Atiku and co-defendant Otumba Fashawe. As reported (ref. C), Fashawe filed and won a case in the Lagos High Court in December 2006 declaring that the Administrative Panel of Inquiry's indictment was unconstitutional. Fashawe was subsequently released from detention and charges stemming from the indictment dropped. Atiku claims the same ruling applies to him, even though he was not officially a party to Fashawe's suit. ¶5. (C) Comment: We expect Vice President Atiku to seek redress in the courts. He has told us he will seek an injunction to jump-start the process in the hope of forcing an expeditious decision. With time running out before the elections, it remains unclear how expeditiously and definitively the Nigerian judiciary will be willing or able to handle this case. We recall that the court challenge to the 2003 election by second-place finisher Buhari took two years to resolve. End Comment. SUGGESTED PRESS GUIDANCE -------------- ¶6. (U) Post recommends the Department issue press guidance on Atiku's candidacy. Suggested press guidance follows: --Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) on March 15 released the list of candidates who will be included on the April 21 presidential ballot. Vice President Atiku Abubakar, the candidate nominated by the Action Congress (AC) party, was excluded from this list. --Vice President Abubakar and his party will seek a court injunction, perhaps as soon as today, seeking to restore his name to the ballot. --We hope the Nigerian courts will promptly resolve the contentious issue of the Vice President's eligibility, and that all sides will abide by any court decisions and continue ABUJA 00000523 002.2 OF 002 to respect the rule of law. --The April elections will mark the first civilian to civilian transfer of power in Nigeria's history and are a key test for democracy in the region. FUREY