Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ABUJA522
2007-03-16 09:18:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:
NIGERIAN APPROVED PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES LIST
how-toVZCZCXRO7317 PP RUEHPA DE RUEHUJA #0522 0750918 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 160918Z MAR 07 FM AMEMBASSY ABUJA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8907 INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW 0175 RUEHCD/AMCONSUL CIUDAD JUAREZ 0173 RUEHOS/AMCONSUL LAGOS 6375 RHEBAAA/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000522
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2017
TAGS: PGOV
SUBJECT: NIGERIAN APPROVED PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES LIST
ANNOUNCED
Classified By: DCM Thomas P. Furey for reasons 1.4. (b & d).
C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000522
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2017
TAGS: PGOV
SUBJECT: NIGERIAN APPROVED PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES LIST
ANNOUNCED
Classified By: DCM Thomas P. Furey for reasons 1.4. (b & d).
1. (C) On March 15, Independent National Electoral Commission
(INEC) Chairman Maurice Iwu announced the names of the 24
candidates who will be allowed to contest the Nigerian
presidential elections scheduled for April 21. Presuming
that INEC's exclusion of Vice President and Action Congress
candidate Atiku withstands the expected court challenge (see
septel),we believe only a handful of the remaining
candidates are likely to have a significant impact on the
race, and that only two--Katsina State Governor and ruling
People's Democratic Party (PDP) candidate Umar Yar'adua and
former Head of State and All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP)
candidate Mohammedu Buhari--stand any realistic chance of
winning.
2. (C) The list below is divided into groups indicating our
(strictly informal) sense of the various candidates' chances
of having an impact on the race. "Major candidates" are
those whom we believe have a chance of making a second round
runoff or even winning in the first round; if allowed to
stand, Atiku would certainly have been in this group.
"Candidates with regional or factional appeal" are, in our
judgment, distant dark horses to make a runoff, but could
garner enough votes to have an impact on who does. "Minor
candidates" would be unlikely to have any impact except in a
very close race. We would be surprised if any of the
remaining candidates will win any appreciable percentage of
the vote.
3. (C) Please not that, within the groupings, the candidates
are in alphabetical order:
Major Candidates:
--------------
Maj-Gen. Mohammadu Buhari (rtd.) of the All Nigeria Peoples
Party (ANPP)
Governor Umar Yar'Adua of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)
Candidates with Regional or Factional Appeal:
--------------
Governor Attahiru Bafarawa Democratic Peoples Party
Governor Orji Uzor Kalu of the Progressive Peoples Alliance
(PPA)
Dim Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu of the All Progressives Grand
Alliance (APGA)
Prof. Pat Utomi of the African Democratic Congress (ADC)
Minor candidates:
--------------
Chief Adebayo Adefarati of the Alliance for Democracy
Alhaji Habu Fari of the National Democratic Party
Arthur Nwankwo of the Peoples Mandate Party
Chief Sunny Okogwu of the Republican Party of Nigeria
Rev. Chris Okotie of the Fresh Democratic Party
No-Hopers:
--------------
Lawrence Adedoyin of the African Political System
Olapade Agoro of the National Action Council
Godswill Nnaji of the Better Nigeria Peoples Party
Maj. Mojisola Obasanjo (rtd.) of the Masses Movement of
Nigeria
Emmanuel Okereke of the All Peoples Liberation Party
Maxi Okwu of the Citizens Popular Party
Ambrose Owuru of the Hope Democratic Party
Osagie Obayuwana of the National Conscience Party
Akpone Solomon of the National Majority Democratic Party
Who?:
--------------
Aminu Abubakar of the National Unity Party
Galtima Liman of the New Nigeria Peoples Party
Isa Odidi of the New Democrats
Brimmy Olaghere of the Nigeria Peoples Congress
FUREY
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2017
TAGS: PGOV
SUBJECT: NIGERIAN APPROVED PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES LIST
ANNOUNCED
Classified By: DCM Thomas P. Furey for reasons 1.4. (b & d).
1. (C) On March 15, Independent National Electoral Commission
(INEC) Chairman Maurice Iwu announced the names of the 24
candidates who will be allowed to contest the Nigerian
presidential elections scheduled for April 21. Presuming
that INEC's exclusion of Vice President and Action Congress
candidate Atiku withstands the expected court challenge (see
septel),we believe only a handful of the remaining
candidates are likely to have a significant impact on the
race, and that only two--Katsina State Governor and ruling
People's Democratic Party (PDP) candidate Umar Yar'adua and
former Head of State and All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP)
candidate Mohammedu Buhari--stand any realistic chance of
winning.
2. (C) The list below is divided into groups indicating our
(strictly informal) sense of the various candidates' chances
of having an impact on the race. "Major candidates" are
those whom we believe have a chance of making a second round
runoff or even winning in the first round; if allowed to
stand, Atiku would certainly have been in this group.
"Candidates with regional or factional appeal" are, in our
judgment, distant dark horses to make a runoff, but could
garner enough votes to have an impact on who does. "Minor
candidates" would be unlikely to have any impact except in a
very close race. We would be surprised if any of the
remaining candidates will win any appreciable percentage of
the vote.
3. (C) Please not that, within the groupings, the candidates
are in alphabetical order:
Major Candidates:
--------------
Maj-Gen. Mohammadu Buhari (rtd.) of the All Nigeria Peoples
Party (ANPP)
Governor Umar Yar'Adua of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)
Candidates with Regional or Factional Appeal:
--------------
Governor Attahiru Bafarawa Democratic Peoples Party
Governor Orji Uzor Kalu of the Progressive Peoples Alliance
(PPA)
Dim Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu of the All Progressives Grand
Alliance (APGA)
Prof. Pat Utomi of the African Democratic Congress (ADC)
Minor candidates:
--------------
Chief Adebayo Adefarati of the Alliance for Democracy
Alhaji Habu Fari of the National Democratic Party
Arthur Nwankwo of the Peoples Mandate Party
Chief Sunny Okogwu of the Republican Party of Nigeria
Rev. Chris Okotie of the Fresh Democratic Party
No-Hopers:
--------------
Lawrence Adedoyin of the African Political System
Olapade Agoro of the National Action Council
Godswill Nnaji of the Better Nigeria Peoples Party
Maj. Mojisola Obasanjo (rtd.) of the Masses Movement of
Nigeria
Emmanuel Okereke of the All Peoples Liberation Party
Maxi Okwu of the Citizens Popular Party
Ambrose Owuru of the Hope Democratic Party
Osagie Obayuwana of the National Conscience Party
Akpone Solomon of the National Majority Democratic Party
Who?:
--------------
Aminu Abubakar of the National Unity Party
Galtima Liman of the New Nigeria Peoples Party
Isa Odidi of the New Democrats
Brimmy Olaghere of the Nigeria Peoples Congress
FUREY