ELECTION 2007 THIS WAY COMES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000462 SIPDIS SIPDIS DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM NI SUBJECT: ELECTION 2007 THIS WAY COMES REF: ABUJA 403 AND PREVIOUS ABUJA 00000462 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Worries about election readiness from the technical and political perspectives dominated the Embassy's March 8 meeting with NDI, IRI, and IFES. Though INEC has finished drafting polling day procedures, IFES and UNDP experts are troubled by many of them and are negotiating for revisions. Problem areas include ballot box security and transmission of results. Opposition parties ANPP and AC continue to fight with INEC over candidate disqualifications and allege that they have been denied police permission to hold rallies around the country. NDI is helping to organize presidential debates, scheduled to take place April 1-4. Credentialing procedures for domestic and international election observers have not been released by INEC. NDI has prepared handbooks for domestic election observers and plans to hold a training session in Abuja for observers from diplomatic missions. A U.S. congressional delegation led by Representative Donald Payne may travel to Nigeria to observe the polls. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Ambassador, DCM, Poloffs and USAID officials met with representatives of the National Democratic Institute (NDI), International Republican Institute (IRI),and IFES on March 8 to review Nigeria's progress in preparing for the upcoming polls. Though all three organizations continue to plan for and work toward elections in April, they expressed growing concern about that the process will be delayed or will be extremely flawed. Technical Preparations -------------- ¶3. (C) INEC technicians are working to review and clean up the voter registration data in all 36 states and the FCT. As they examine the lists for errors, duplications, and other problems, the reported number of registered voters has declined. Though Chairman Iwu originally announced a register of 61.5 million voters, that figure has already been reduced to 58 million, and will likely drop further. INEC presented a "final" version of a polling procedures manual to IFES and UNDP. Both IFES and UNDP found a number of major flaws in the document, and they submitted a joint 5-page critique of the document and are working together to ask INEC to edit the procedures. IFES said that as written, the procedures would "lead to much electoral conflict." For example, the manual says that ballot boxes could be either closed with a numbered seal or locked with a padlock. Padlocking the box would not meet international standards for security, especially given Nigeria's history of ballot box stuffing. INEC's procedures for transmission of results are also problematic. The Commission insists that results will be transmitted both on paper and "electronically" through 5 stages of collation (from poll to ward to local government area to constituency to state). However, IFES does not believe that INEC has any mechanism in place for electronic dissemination of results. IFES fears that INEC will use mobile phone text messaging as its "electronic transmission" method -- but this raises serious questions about data accuracy and security and distinguishing legitimate submissions of results from false ones. ¶4. (C) All three organizations were concerned by recent public comments by Attorney General Bayo Ojo and INEC Chairman Iwu, indicating that election preparations may not be on track. Given the GON's consistent denial of any problems with preparation, could the recent change of tone signal a desire to delay the election? IRI also found it strange that the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) has taken INEC to court. If the GON is serious about the upcoming election, why would one federal agency take another to court this close to the election, IRI asked? Parties and Campaign Activities -------------- ¶5. (C) IRI noted that its political party contacts continue ABUJA 00000462 002.2 OF 002 to say that no delay of the election will be tolerated. The sentiment that a flawed election is better than a postponed election is pervasive. Both the opposition ANPP and AC parties have complained about disruption of their planned campaign events due to lack of police permission to gather large crowds. Court battles over candidate disqualifications continue. On March 6, a Federal High Court ruled that INEC has "no right to disqualify candidates." INEC has acknowledged the ruling and pledged to abide by it, and this was widely reported as a "victory" for Atiku. However, INEC responded noting that it had not disqualified any candidate, as Atiku and others were made ineligible by an Administrative Panel. ¶6. (U) NDI is working with media and civil society to organize Presidential Debates, scheduled for April 1-4. All major media organizations except the state-run NTA television have agreed to broadcast the debates. In mid-March, NDI is sponsoring the visit of a group of Americans from the U.S. Presidential Debates Commission to work with the Nigerian debate organizers. Due to the large number of candidates, the organizers plan to split the debate into 4 nightly sessions. Candidates will draw numbers to determine on which night they will participate. Observation Updates -------------- ¶7. (C) According to NDI, a Nigerian civil society groups plan to deploy 60,000 domestic election observers. Though this number sounds large, it will result in less than one observer for every two polling stations. NDI completed and printed a training manual for domestic observers; however it lacks the most up-to-date information on guidelines for observers and polling day procedures, since those have not yet been issued by INEC. Though invitations have been issued to international observer groups, INEC has not yet issued guidelines for accreditation of international or domestic observers. An IFES consultant has completed an online application which will allow observers to register through the INEC website. However, the site has not yet been launched by INEC. More troublingly, INEC has not decided which of its departments will be responsible for reviewing applications and issuing credentials and no process is in place for accreditation of journalists, poll workers, or party agents. NDI has heard that U.S. Congressman Donald Payne would like to lead a Codel to observe Nigeria's elections in April. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Though NDI, IRI, and IFES continue to plan for and work toward elections in April, they expressed growing concern that the process will be delayed or will be extremely flawed. IRI's country director believes the election will hold in April, but will be "worse than in 2003," while IFES and NDI officials now remark that their optimism about April polls is fading. NDI said that "given the current circumstances, a delayed election is a reasonable conclusion," while IFES noted that "the election, from an administrative point of view, has all the credentials to be a total disaster." Both the NGO representatives and the Embassy officials agreed that the options now appear to be a bad election, a delayed election, or (perhaps most troubling) both. Without a change in political will, there is no guarantee that election preparations would get better with time, and any delay may create conditions dangerous for Nigeria's democracy and conducive to disruptions in Constitutional order. CAMPBELL