AMBASSADOR VISIT TO EDO FINDS GREAT CONCERN ABOUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000461 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR VISIT TO EDO FINDS GREAT CONCERN ABOUT POLITICAL SITUATION ABUJA 00000461 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4. (b & d). ¶1. (C) On a visit to Benin City, capital of Edo State and center of the historic Benin Kingdom, interlocutors from the Governor's office as well as the court of the Oba of Benin, the traditional leader, each expressed their concern about the upcoming elections in Nigeria and the danger presented by the machinations of the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP). ¶2. (C) At a series of meetings with Governor Lucky Igbenedion and members of his staff, the same refrain was heard time and again: "dark clouds are gathering." The Governor talked to Ambassador privately, saying that he was worried about the outlook for credible elections. ¶3. (C) The Governor's younger brother, Fred Igbinedion, emphasized the problems facing Nigeria. He explained that while he believes that some things had been improved, the current position of President Obasanjo is "threatening the nation." He used the current crises in the Delta region as an example. "Unpopular politicians rigged into office are looting the treasuries and making people suffer," he said. The only solution, he mused, would be to ensure that "President Obasanjo's plans are thwarted." A U.S.-trained neurosurgeon, Fred said that he and his entire family were "committed to developing Edo State and Nigeria in general." ¶4. (C) One personal assistant to the Governor, Ozolua Giwa-Amu, also used the "dark clouds" analogy. He echoed many of the same concerns about Nigeria's electoral prospects but went a step further. Mr. Giwa-Amu said that "a coup is possible now" given President Obasanjo's unwillingness to allow a political process that he did not control. He commented that Obasanjo's intent to rig the elections was obvious by his selection of "successors:" Yar'adua who is unknown or disliked throughout the North and Jonathan who "will be lucky to carry his own local government." He commented that the PDP could not pick a "more uninspiring ticket." ¶5. (C) A courtesy call on the Oba of Benin engendered a theatrical performance by the pre-eminent traditional ruler in the region. Alternating between carefully chosen niceties and barbs at political activists from both the Governor's office and members of his Royal Council. "What are you PDP people doing here?" he asked at various points throughout the meeting. Using his remarks, he made clear to the group that he was singularly unimpressed with the performance of both the President and the ruling party, of which Edo's Governor is a leading member. Pulling the Ambassador aside, he said he was deeply worried about the outlook for credible elections: "all I can do is pray." ¶6. (C) A member of his court, Chief Douglas Asu, who serves as a Special Advisor to the Governor and was the subject of several of the Oba's comments, echoed the concerns of many of the Governor's staff, commenting that he was very concerned about the prospect for violence. He told PolCouns that the Oba's performance had been "pretty much normal," and a sign of the concerns facing the people in the region. We are accustomed to the jesting, the Chief said, but the problems are real. ¶7. (C) Meeting with the Benin University adminstrative staff, similar concerns were encountered. There however, two of the staff members indicated that they thought President Obasanjo's interference was necessary to ensure the country's stability: "The PDP must win to keep Nigeria together." One of the Benin Alumni association members was gloomy when discussing Nigeria's political future, sentiments echoed by the chairman of the Fullbright Association in Nigeria. ¶8. (C) COMMENT: The visit to Edo State was an enormous success in terms of outreach to entities in this historic area but provided a disturbing view of the obstacles ahead on Nigeria's road toward democracy. The level of political gloom was palpable among politicians and traditional leaders who uniformly pointed to the "dark clouds on the horizon." The fact that a couple of them went so far as to mention the possibility of a military coup, encouraged by President Obasanjo's intransigence, merely vocalized the mutterings of increasing numbers of Nigerians over the past several weeks. ABUJA 00000461 002.2 OF 002 END COMMENT. CAMPBELL