PDP CANDIDATE YAR'ADUA GRAVELY ILL, POSSIBLY DEAD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000431 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/07/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI SUBJECT: PDP CANDIDATE YAR'ADUA GRAVELY ILL, POSSIBLY DEAD ABUJA 00000431 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Russell Hanks for reasons 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The PDP presidential candidate Umar Yar'Adua collapsed at a private residence in Abuja on March 6 and was subsequently taken by air ambulance to Germany. Unconfirmed reports from Embassy contacts March 7 indicate Yar'Adua has died. Trying to downplay the event, PDP National Secretary Ojo Maduekwe issued a statement late on March 6 saying that Yar'Adua had been flown to Germany for routine medical treatment. Evidently because of Yar'Adua's health crisis, the President returned early from a trip to Ghana and cancelled his weekly Cabinet meeting. Discussions about potentially replacing Yar'Adua as a presidential candidate are underway, according to Embassy sources. There is also great concern within the Villa about how the developing story will play in the North. End Summary. ¶2. (U) At a hastily convened press conference late on March 6, Ojo Maduekwe said that "Our candidate in the general election, His Excellency Umaru Yar'Adua took time off today from what has been a generally grueling national campaign schedule for everyone to present himself for a routine medical check up at a clinic in Abuja...the culmination of all this is that he went on his own to a clinic for medical check up which is long over due. In full consultation with his personal physician, a decision was subsequently taken today that the process of medical investigations could benefit from facilities overseas at this early stage of the campaign since more weeks of a challenging campaign still lie ahead." ¶3. (C) Though the PDP has sought to downplay the incident, press accounts and Embassy sources within the PDP say that Yar'Adua collapsed in his residence prior to heading to a campaign rally. He was taken to a local clinic run by Berger, a German construction company, before being evacuated to Germany via air ambulance. Sources claim that he variously had suffered a stroke, heart attack or unspecified organ failure. NOTE: Previous reporting indicates a history of renal failure and other serious illnesses. END NOTE. ¶4. (C) An Embassy source in the office of the Special Assistant to the President on Public Affairs confirmed on March 7 that Yar'Adua was in need of emergency care, but again sought to downplay the incident. The source told Poloff that Yar'Adua's health issues had been well known prior to yesterday, but that his current condition was "nothing serious." The source said that Germany was chosen because it "offered the best medical care available." ¶5. (C) The Presidency source also said that there was concern in the Villa about how the news of Yar'Adua's illness will be taken in northern Nigeria. He said that Yar'Adua's collapse may confirm the belief that Yar'adua's candidacy was a "Trojan horse" for a southern president and southern domination. As a result, he intimated "there was a flurry of activity at the Villa" centered around picking a replacement for Yar'Adua. ¶6. (C) Political and Defense Attache contacts, including one Yar'Adua family member, phoned Embassy officers during the morning of March 7 reporting that Yar'Adua had passed away either in Germany or en route. ¶7. (C) The Villa source told Poloff that there was intense lobbying by Northern governors to replace Yar'Adua, and that former President Babangida was lobbying to become the PDP replacement candidate. The source speculated that discussions would advance quickly and that the three leading candidates were the governors of Kaduna and Bauchi states, Ahmed Makarfi and Adamu Mu'azu, and the Minister for the Federal Capital Territory, Nasir El-Rufai. The source said that a decision on replacing Yar'Adua would be made quickly. NOTE: According to Section 37 of 2006 Electoral Act a candidate can only be replaced. "If after the time for the delivery of nomination paper and before the commencement of the poll, a nominated candidate dies." END NOTE. ¶8. (C) COMMENT: The basic information in this cable has been confirmed by British and German counterparts in Abuja, who are hearing the same reports from their sources. While Nigerian media is not yet reporting Yar'Adua's death, Muslim cultural practice necessitates a quick return of the body for interrment. Political fallout from Yar'Adua's illness or demise will continue for hours, if not days, and has to ABUJA 00000431 002.2 OF 002 potential to interrupt campaigning as well as the conduct of elections. CAMPBELL