SCENESETTER FOR AMB YATES AND VICE ADMIRAL MOELLER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002423 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2017 TAGS: PGOV PMIL KPKO NI SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR AMB YATES AND VICE ADMIRAL MOELLER ABUJA 00002423 001.2 OF 002 -------------- -------------- ZFR ZFR ZFR ZFR ZFR ZFR ZFR ZFR ZFR ZFR ZFR ZFR ZFR ZFR PLEASE ZFR ABUJA 2423 IMI ABUJA 2423 AND ALL ASSOCIATED MCNS CABLE WAS SENT IN ERROR. PER DRAFTER. -------------- -------------- ABUJA 00002423 002 OF 002 ¶5. (C) Violence in the Niger Delta appears to be escalating after several months' lull. Unrest and kidnappings of foreigners subsided substantially in the first months of the Yar'Adua administration, but there have been renewed incidents of violence targeted at western oil facilities in the last month. In addition, militants have escalated their attacks against the hapless Nigerian Navy, killing sailors and stealing equipment and boats. Nigeria is the West's partner in the Gulf of Guinea Energy Security Strategy dialogue process; however, its inability to control the violence within the Delta is a black mark on its leadership. With more than US$3 billion in U.S. investment (mostly in the oil industry),participation in a solution to the problems in the Delta is a high priority for the USG and U.S. oil companies alike. The situation is further complicated by the November 12 attack on a Cameroonian military post in the Bakassi peninsula, in which 20 gendarmes died. While the identity of the assailants and their motive for attack is yet unknown, it is believed by some that this could be an attempt by militants to widen the conflict. GAINING NIGERIAN SUPPORT FOR AFRICOM -------------- ¶6. (C) We believe that much of the Nigerian resistance to Africom can be overcome by reminding the GON of the value that Africom adds to USG humanitarian, counterterrorism, and training efforts in Africa, and reassuring them that Africom will not erode Nigerian sovereignty in any way. Nigerian officials, publicly and privately, have expressed frustration that their high-level political and military leadership were not brought into the discussion during Africom's early planning stages. Always protocol conscious, the mere fact that senior command leadership is visiting Abuja will go a long way toward soothing offended sensibilities. Embassy Abuja's Public Affairs Section is planning a press event, which will be a good opportunity to publicly express USG acknowledgment of and appreciation for Nigeria's leadership role in African affairs, especially peacekeeping. While at this stage it is unlikely that the GON will publicly reverse its stated opposition to any West Africa-based Africom element, we believe that your visit will mitigate the influence of some of the continent's more strident Africom opponents, and may ensure a more helpful behind-the-scenes role played by the GON as Africom progresses toward full operational status. PIASCIK