INEC CHAIRMAN UPBEAT ON NIGERIA,S ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000232 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/05/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM NI ELECTIONS SUBJECT: INEC CHAIRMAN UPBEAT ON NIGERIA,S ELECTIONS ABUJA 00000232 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4. (b & d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Maurice Iwu, Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is upbeat about the current voter registration process but also about preparations for polling. As in the past, he asked for no additional assistance from donor countries. He identified Sokoto, Anambra, Plateau, and Adamawa states as possible flash points during the elections, but not the Niger Delta. See para 7 for comment. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Ambassador attended a small, February 3 lunch hosted by the Papal Nuncio for INEC Chairman Maurice Iwu, who, the Chairman said, normally hears mass at the Nunciature. Other guests were from small, predominately Catholic European countries. Iwu was at ease and upbeat. He said that INEC has gathered registration data on up to sixty million Nigerians. This data would be converted into a voter registration list on a precinct basis over the next few weeks. According to Iwu, this process is already underway and has been decentralized away from Abuja. He looks to expand the present 122,000 polling places to 150,000, mostly to take into account ethnic rivalries. As he has before, he expressed concern about violence, especially in conjunction with local government area electoral contests. He said that INEC now has about 5,000 employees; this will increase to 500,000 by election day. He encouraged foreign observers, and, in response to a question, repeated that he required no further financial assistance from the donors. When Ambassador reviewed with Iwu our principal public affairs themes around the elections, he characterized them as "exactly right." Most of the problems INEC will face, Iwu continued, result from Nigeria's collapsing infrastructure, especially the road network. ¶3. (C) In response to a question, Iwu said that he anticipated electoral flashpoints not in the Delta but in Sokoto, Plateau, Anambra and Adamawa states. He said that Sokoto Governor Bafarawa is violent by nature and he is a presidential candidate in opposition to the ruling Peoples Democratic Party. Plateau state has been wracked even recently by conflicts between indigenes and "settlers" that rapidly acquire an ethnic and religious dimension and the state government has been highly unstable, with an incumbent governor removed by Abuja. In Adamawa, he said, the issue is the close balance between Christians and Muslims and the fact that it is a stronghold of Vice President Atiku, whom Iwu sees as a potential troublemaker, given that he and the President are bitter enemies. Anambra's politics are also characterized by instability, violence, and the removal of an elected governor by Abuja. The situation, he continued, is very different in the Delta. The "Youth Groups" as well as "traditional rulers" have been pro-active in assisting INEC with the voter registration process. All factions, he continued, appear to want credible elections in the Delta, if for their own, specific agendas. ¶4. (C) Iwu said that in those precincts where violence is out of hand, he as INEC chairman has the authority to postpone elections for up to one month, while they proceed on schedule in the rest of the country. He held out the possibility of a run-off election for the presidency if there was no clear winner on April 21. ¶5. (C) Chairman Iwu confirmed that the Nigeria Bar Association (NBA) has offered 20,000 poll observers, but said he had not heard directly from the NBA but only read about the offer in the newspapers. No matter, he continued, he would accept the offer. He noted that the NBA, like most other Nigerian organizations is not above "playing politics," and noted that the current NBA president, Olisa Agbokoba, formerly headed an opposition party. He agreed with Ambassador's observation that civil society is much weaker now than in the 1980's. It is hard, he said, for INEC to recruit poll workers, and the NGO's offer fewer observers and other poll workers than INEC needs. Iwu speculated that the shortage of poll workers is caused by higher levels of violence and intimidation associated with elections now than in the past. ¶7. (C) COMMENT. The Chairman was relaxed and serene. With respect to registration and polling preparations, Iwu is on a different planet from our IRI, NDI, IFES and PACT elections partners. Far from being riddled with incompetence and ABUJA 00000232 002.2 OF 002 fraud, as our partners see it, Iwu believes the registration process is going smoothly. He predicted free and fair elections would be the outcome. He reiterated that he needed nothing more from the donors, though he expressed appreciation for this embassy's public affirmation of the importance of elections and the unacceptability of violence or coups. The states he identifies as potential flash points make sense with the exception of Sokoto. It may be significant that apparently the militias as well as the traditional leaders in the Delta are seeking to facilitate elections. Could the competing factions there see the voting process as, finally, an endorsement of their legitimacy? END COMMENT. CAMPBELL