FEAR AND LOATHING AT THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000231 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/05/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI ELECTIONS SUBJECT: FEAR AND LOATHING AT THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY REF: ABUJA 2562 ABUJA 00000231 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Heather Merritt for reason 1. 4 (B and D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: With three months to go before elections, members of the Nigerian National Assembly are increasingly anxious about elections. This sentiment in the Assembly is rooted in a widely held skepticism about the intentions of President Obasanjo, coupled with the belief that INEC is woefully unprepared for elections. These perceptions have fueled a strong belief among National Assembly members that the lack of election preparation is an intentional conspiracy of incompetence. The ruling PDP is rife with dissension, with two distinct groups of aggrieved party members. One group which opposed the third term has been branded disloyal traitors and effectively banished, while the other group is made up of loyal supporters of the third term who lost party nominations during the heavily manipulated PDP primaries. This coalition of disaffected PDP members has coalesced with opposition party members in neutralizing efforts to impeach the Vice-President, catalyzed closed door discussions about impeaching President Obasanjo, and initiated discussion about firing INEC Chairman Maurice Iwu. Although the situation is fluid, it appears that impeachment efforts against the President and Vice President both lack the requisite two-thirds majority, although impeachment efforts are likely to continue. In addition, although there may be enough support among members to fire Iwu, proponents of the idea have come to the conclusion that sacking him would be counterproductive to keeping elections on schedule. End Summary. IMPEACHMENT HAS APPEAL, BUT NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT -------------- --- ¶2. (U) The threat of impeaching President Obasanjo surfaced shortly after he initiated an effort to impeach the Vice-President for corruption in his handling of the Petroleum Trust and Development Fund (PTDF). The Senate initially handled the sensitive issue by designating a special Ad-Hoc committee to look into the allegations against Atiku (ref A). As part of Atiku's strategy to exonerate himself, he submitted documentation which he said proved that President Obasanjo had corruptly used the PTDF as a slush fund. So far the committee has said little publicly about its findings, held few hearings and seems inclined not to issue indictments against the President or the Vice-President, according the media reports and discussions with members. ¶3. (C) On a separate track, however, discussion has emerged among members of the House and Senate about the impeachment of the President. The discussion brought together disgruntled members of the ruling PDP party, (those who opposed the third term and those who lost their party nominations despite their loyal support) with opposition members. The participation of a significant number of ruling party members has rattled Aso Rock, according to House member Abdul Oroh (PDP),a strong supporter of the President, who told Poloff, that PDP Chairman Amadu Ali convoked a special meeting with party members to discuss the issue. At the meeting, Oroh said, disgruntled members vented their anger at having supported the President only to be cast aside during the heavily controlled party nomination process. Ali agreed to look into the grievances as a way to stem the anger, and newspapers later reported that the party would reexamine about a half-dozen out of 40 cases. Oroh believes that his case is among those under examination. ¶4. (C) Opponents of the President have tried to capitalize on anger at the President and the ruling party to build a coalition of the disaffected. Embassy discussions with a wide range of members both for and against impeachment reveal that although the idea appeals to many, there is a consensus that support so far falls short of the necessary two-thirds majority needed. In addition, members told Poloff, the effort is disorganized with little time left for action. Senate Deputy Minority leader Daniel Saror (ANPP),who is for impeachment, said there was little chance that the efforts would succeed, and that impeachment of the President was a game of numbers and you only needed 43 senators to defeat such a measure. This calculation, he said also worked in favor of the Vice-President who also needed to muster the same number of senators to block impeachment efforts. Rep. Umar Ibrahim El-Yakub (ANPP),a leader of the effort to ABUJA 00000231 002.2 OF 002 impeach the President in the House, told Poloff that he had 150 signatures on a petition in support of the measure, but would need 240. He said he would continue to solicit support and he might submit his list for action in the near future. SERIOUS CONCERN AT NASS ABOUT IMPENDING ELECTIONS -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Assembly members who spoke with Poloff all described a dilemma in which the Nigerian electorate was between a rock and a hard place in which all indications are that the elections are likely to be extremely disorganized. At the same time the likelihood of fraud on election day was quite high and would simply be a continuation of the manipulation common at all political party conferences and now prevalent with voter's registration. But any initiative to correct the problem that could result in a delay in the election, according to National Assembly members, is being ruled out as too high a price to pay. In this formulation delay is tantamount to disaster, and thus must be avoided at all costs. ¶6. (C) Concern about elections, National Assembly members told Poloff, are heavily influenced by a lack of trust in the intentions of President Obasanjo and failures by INEC to raise confidence in the electoral process. With three months before elections there is serious concern about what type of elections are in the offing and members are looking at specific initiatives the NASS could undertake to help the process. There is a growing consensus that messy elections are likely, but flawed elections are better than delayed elections, and that no elections would provoke a crisis, assembly members told Poloff. ¶7. (C) This view deeply influenced the tenor and conclusions of secret meetings last month about the state of elections and the role of INEC Chairman Maurice Iwu. Assembly members debated the idea of sacking Iwu for inadequate preparation and to signal a lack of confidence in the electoral process. The content of the discussion was leaked to the media to increase the pressure on the government and Iwu. The initiative was shelved after a consensus was reached that firing the chairman would mean finding a replacement and, inevitably, lead to a delay in the elections. The conclusion was, Senator Saror told Poloff, "anything is better than nothing at this point," and firing Iwu would be counterproductive. ¶8. (C) Comment: The Nigerian National Assembly, now in its waning days before the scheduled elections, is a microcosm and a focal point for Nigerian politics. Discussion of impeachment of the President and Vice-President may be just a metaphor for disillusionment, but it is one that reflects a deep malaise held by many Nigerians. The best and worst of Nigerian politics are on view at the NASS: corruption, opportunism, thoughtful debate and principled action. Clearly, there is great concern among lawmakers about where Nigeria is headed with clear signs of a disorganized and contentious election in 12 weeks, but there is also an emerging consensus among NASS members that a deeply flawed transition, including messy elections, if held to schedule, is better than a delayed transition. The worst case scenario is no transition at all, which many believe portends disaster. End Comment. CAMPBELL