NIGERIA: PRESIDENTIAL TRIBUNAL UPDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002296 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W, INR/AA DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/31/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: PRESIDENTIAL TRIBUNAL UPDATE REF: A. ABUJA 2229 ¶B. ABUJA 1693 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Lisa Piascik for reasons 1.4. (b & d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The Presidential Election Tribunal recently consolidated the petitions of Muhammadu Buhari (All Nigeria Peoples Party, ANPP) and Atiku Abubakar (Action Congress, AC) which has had a positive affect on the progress. Despite pressure, neither candidate is likely to withdraw from the petition, and Buhari's counsel is confident that the overwhelming volume of evidence being put forth will leave the tribunal no choice but to nullify the election (Comment: a prospect we still consider remote. End comment). Buhari's team is aware of the risk that a re-run election could be just as corrupt as that of last April, but hopeful that popular opposition would not allow rigging to take place a second time. END SUMMARY. BUHARI AND ATIKU UNITED AGAINST YAR'ADUA -------------- ¶2. (C) On October 16, the Presidential Election Tribunal hearing the petition against President Yar'Adua consolidated the petitions of purportedly defeated presidential candidates Muhammadu Buhari and Atiku Abubakar in an effort to save time and money. Between Yar'Adua, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC),Buhari, and Atiku, there are over 700 witnesses expected to be called; however head of the tribunal panel, Justice James Ogebe, is hopeful that the hearings will not last longer than three months. ¶3. (C) On October 24, Buhari's lawyer, Mike Ahamba (strictly protect),told PolOff that the consolidation of petitions has helped the process as he now works closely with Atiku's legal team, sharing information and evidence. He was not eager for consolidation when Buhari was still backed by the ANPP, because as Ahamba said "the ANPP cannot be trusted" (alluding to their post-election decision to enter a government of national unity with the PDP). The case is progressing much quicker now, and Ahamba believes he will rest his case within a week. Ahamba is confident that the election will be nullified due to blatant evidence of malfeasance. Despite objections from INEC and Yar'Adua's counsel, Ahamba was able to submit certified documents from INEC that show results being confirmed prior to election day. Ahamba said he has documents from INEC that show fraudulent results in 29 out of the 36 states. Although Ahamba feels the tribunal panel is "incompetent" and makes arbitrary decisions due to being "unsure of the process," he is confident that the overwhelming volume of evidence will leave the panel no choice but to nullify the election. (Comment: We continue to think any reversal of the result would be at best a remote prospect. While some Nigerian judges have shown refreshing signs of real independence in recent months, we suspect they would still blanche at the prospect of removing a popular (currently with a 79 percent approval rating) sitting President who has been in office for five months. End comment.) PRESSURE ON BUHARI TO DROP HIS SUIT -------------- ¶4. (C) Although Ahamba assured PolOff that neither Atiku nor Buhari would withdraw their petitions, Buhari is still being pressured to do so by important Northerners, including former heads of state Yakubu Gowon and Shehu Shagari, northern traditional leaders headed by the Sultan of Sokoto, and prominent Islamic scholars like Ahmad Gumi (son of the late Abubakar Gumi, founder of the JNI - northern Islamic umbrella interest group). Each is motivated by different reasons. For former heads of state and other elites, the key issue is maintaining the status quo. For Gumi and other prominent Islamic leaders, it is more about maintaining regional (Northern) influence. During talks with Gumi, PolOff sensed Gumi's real fear is that the North might lose the Presidency if Buhari continues to "rock the boat." Many Northerners have commented that, after eight years of government led by a southern Christian (Obasanjo),they are eager for one of their own to be at the help. WOULD NEW ELECTIONS CHANGE ANYTHING? -------------- ¶5. (C) Ahamba does worry that a re-run election has the ABUJA 00002296 002 OF 002 potential to be just as corrupt as that of last April, especially if no changes are made at INEC. Ahamba is lobbying to have INEC head Maurice Iwu removed from his position and banned from presiding over elections ever again. This at present seems unlikely since only the President with the support of two-thirds of the Senate has the power to remove Iwu. Failing this, Ahamba is hopeful that, as more elections are overturned, people will become more aware of corruption and not allow future rigging to take place. PIASCIK