BUHARI INSIDER ON ANPP INTRIGUES, POSSIBLE MASS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 001949 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W, INR/AA E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2017 TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM KJUS NI SUBJECT: BUHARI INSIDER ON ANPP INTRIGUES, POSSIBLE MASS PROTESTS Classified By: CDA Robert Gribbin for Reasons 1.4 (b & d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: All-Nigeria People's Party (ANPP) presidential candidate Muhammadu Buhari confidante retired Air Vice Marshal Mouktar Mohammed disclosed that Buhari's lingering distrust of the ANPP has been justified, in part, following the party's imminent withdrawal of its petition at the presidential electoral tribunal contesting President Yar'Adua's April election. Mohammed bemoaned the ANPP never "seriously" supported Buhari's bid for president, using his name and popularity instead to ensure victory for the party's gubernatorial candidates in Borno and Kano states. Mohammed believed the ANPP offered Buhari the party's presidential nomination while also brokering "power-sharing" agreements with the People's Democratic Party (PDP) to make certain the ANPP retained certain key northern states. Mohammed remarked the ANPP's decision reportedly to withdraw its petition came as no surprise given the party's tenuous interest in actually contesting Yar'Adua's election -- given that its leadership had earlier decided to join the national unity government. Buhari's reluctance to consolidate his petition with the ANPP for fear that the petition would eventually be withdrawn was, therefore, vindicated. As well, Mohammed revealed Buhari is becoming increasingly frustrated by the courts and despondent that the tribunals can truly deliver justice. Mohammed maintained Buhari "literally has no alternative" and thus, is actively pursuing the option of mass street protests in the likely event the presidential election tribunals fail to overturn Yar'Adua's election. With the ANPP withdrawing its petition and joining Yar'Adua's government, Buhari is isolated without the support of a major opposition party. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) In discussions with PolOff on September 6, Buhari insider Air Vice Marshal Mouktar Mohammed disclosed that Buhari's lingering distrust of the ANPP has been justified following rumors the party will withdraw its petition at the presidential electoral tribunal contesting Yar'Adua's April election. (Note: Buhari's lead counsel, Mike Ahamba, confirmed to PolOff on September 5 that the ANPP expressed its intent to withdraw its petition and is expected to make a formal declaration in court on September 10. End Note.) The ANPP's real motivation, Mohammed averred, was self-serving. He posited the ANPP "rode Buhari's coattails" to ensure victory at the April 14 polls for the party's incumbent gubernatorial candidates in Borno and Kano states - whom Mohammed said stood no chance of winning without Buhari's ANPP candidacy. He contended the ANPP offered Buhari the party's presidential nomination while also brokering "power-sharing" agreements with the PDP to make certain the ANPP retained certain key northern states (e.g., Borno, Kano, Yobe, Zamfara, Bauchi). Mohammed admitted he distrusted most of the ANPP from the start, particularly vice presidential candidate Chief Edwin Ume-Ezeoke, who walked out in protest of the 2002 primaries that selected Buhari as the 2003 ANPP presidential flag-bearer and who was one of the first to join Yar'Adua's national unity government. Indeed, Mohammed believed the ANPP planned all along to join Yar'Adua's government and leave Buhari "out to dry." ¶3. (C) Therefore, Mohammed remarked, it came as no surprise the ANPP would withdraw its petition at the presidential electoral tribunal contesting Yar'Adua's April victory. Mohammed expressed satisfaction at the court's rejection on September 3 of the ANPP's request to consolidate its petition with Buhari and that of the Action Congress and its candidate Vice President Atiku. Buhari's reluctance to consolidate with either complainant, Mohammed said, resided in the likely chance the petition would eventually be withdrawn. As well, on principle, Buhari viewed as contradictory the ANPP's petition contesting Yar'Adua's election -- when it had already agreed to join Yar'Adua's administration. When asked about September 6 press reports indicating prominent northerners, including former Head of State Yakubu Gowon (1966-75) and former president Shehu Shagari (1979-83),had approached Buhari to withdraw his tribunal petition, Mohammed commented Buhari would "never concede his right" to contest Yar'Adua's election despite mounting pressure. (Note: The northern emirs made similar entreaties to Buhari to no avail in early July. End Note.) ¶4. (C) While noting Buhari's tenacity in pursuing the judicial process to seek redress for the elections, he revealed Buhari is becoming increasingly frustrated by the courts and despondent that the tribunals can truly deliver justice. In the end, Mohammed said mass street protests remain a viable option and one that Buhari is actively pursuing. Whereas in 2003, Buhari had little experience with the courts, vested confidence in its impartiality, and resisted the temptation to call for street demonstrations, in 2007, Mohammed maintained, Buhari "literally has no alternative." The protests will be peaceful, though massive, Mohammed assured. The point is to "bring the government to a halt" as the recent labor strike was adjudged to have done. Accordingly, Mohammed intimated Buhari will enlist the support of Nigerian labor and other civil society activists to peacefully protest (e.g., through sit-ins, non-violent demonstrations) Yar'Adua's government. ¶5. (U) BIOGRAPHICAL NOTE: Retired Air Vice Marshal Mouktar Mohammed joined the Nigerian Air Force in 1963 and acquired training in Germany and the United States (USAF Command and Staff College, Naval Postgraduate College, Army War College). Mohammed served under Buhari when the latter became Head of State (1983-85). In addition, Mohammed served as Minister of Housing and Environment and as military governor of Kaduna state. Born in 1944 in Jigawa state, Mohammed resides in Kano, where he serves as chairman of several commercial organizations including Kapital Insurance, Kano Textile Printers, Steep Nigeria Ltd, Heleene Farms, and Vectis Mines. END NOTE. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: Mohammed claims he fell out with Buhari in the lead up to the ANPP's December primaries for casting doubt on the ANPP's fealty. As a result, Mohammed was trounced by a cacophony of ANPP voices encouraging a perhaps naive Buhari to run as their candidate. With the ANPP withdrawing its petition, joining (and legitimating) Yar'Adua's national unity government, and dissociating itself from Buhari, he remains isolated without the support of a major opposition party, thereby diminishing the prospects for his own petition. While Buhari appears confident that most Nigerians will heed his call for mass street protests, our sense is that the momentum for such a public outcry has long since dissipated. END COMMENT. GRIBBIN