KANO GOVERNOR ON ELECTIONS, DELTA

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000162 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM ECON NI SUBJECT: KANO GOVERNOR ON ELECTIONS, DELTA Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) During a January 24 meeting with the Ambassador, Kano State Governor Ibrahim Shekarau expressed satisfaction with the voter registration exercise in his state. Despite a slow start due to lack of machines, the governor reported that as of last week, 3.2 million voters had been registered in Kano. Shekarau said that since Kano has 9.3 million residents according to the latest census, he estimates the state's electorate to be about 4.2 million voters. He told the Ambassador that there are complaints in some local areas about census results, but that the Kano state government overall would not reject the results. Shekarau noted that some states are wholly rejecting the census "for obvious political reasons" or "regional jealousies." ¶2. (C) Governor Shekarau was elected in 2003 on the ANPP platform, defeating the PDP incumbent Rabiu Kwankwaso , who later became Minister of Defense. Shekarau told the Ambassador that he is quite secure in his reelection bid. He said that none of the presidential candidates have started to campaign in Kano and he warned that "the PDP is mindful of Kano because we gave them a terrible fight in 2003." The governor predicted that ANPP candidate Muhamadu Buhari will win by a heavy majority in Kano, noting that Kano may be Buhari's strongest state. Shekarau believes that the best the PDP can hope to achieve in Kano is 25% of the presidential vote, which would aid them nationally, as a candidate must take at least 25% of the vote in 2/3 of the states to win outright. Governor Shekarau also pointed out that the gubernatorial elections will be separate from the presidential election in 2007, and indicated that this may have an impact on the state-level races. Shekarau said that the simultaneous election for president and governors in 2003 was in part responsible for AD and ANPP gubernatorial losses. He said that the AD advised southwesterners to vote for their AD governors but to support PDP for president. However, some voters, many of whom are illiterate, found it difficult to distinguish the ballots for each office and simply picked the PDP logo on both ballots. ¶3. (C) When asked about his opinion on the Niger Delta, Shekarau responded that he does not believe it is a military or law enforcement crisis. Instead, he explained that because of his background as a teacher and guidance counselor, he sees great need for counseling of the Niger Delta youth. He blames the state governments and the local government authorities (LGAs) for neglecting and marginalizing the youth by not listening to their concerns. The youth began to think that their only option was to form militant groups. The situation was exacerbated in 2003, according to Governor Shekarau, when local politicians used these nascent militias and then later "dumped them," so they turned freelance. Shekarau discussed the controversial topic of proposed changes to federal revenue sharing that would increase the percentage of oil revenues going to Niger Delta states. However, he noted that the increased derivation, "must be taken from somewhere" and that the oil states already receive an additional 15% of revenues. Shekarau counseled that the Delta indigenes need to change tactics if they want to succeed in their call for additional revenue allocation. Current arguments tend to be emotional, but the Governor thinks that Nigerians from other regions would respond more favorably if provided with a logical argument based on facts and figures. "Compare the price of building 100 kilometers in the Delta with the cost of doing so in Kano or Kaduna," he suggested. Shekarau believes that progress will not be made on the question of revenue derivation until such logical arguments are employed. Everyone agrees that infrastructure development is sorely needed in the Delta, and if the cost of providing it is much higher in the oil region, then perhaps those states should be compensated extra to do so. CAMPBELL