PDP LEADERS COMMIT TO APRIL POLLS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000155

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: PDP LEADERS COMMIT TO APRIL POLLS

REF: A. ABUJA 61

B. 06 ABUJA 3227

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Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Heather Merritt for reasons 1
.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Visiting AF/W Deputy Director Donald Heflin
and Poloffs paid a courtesy call on People's Democratic Party
(PDP) National Chairman Dr. Amadu Ali, National Secretary
Chief Ojo Maduekwe, and other party leaders January 23. The
PDP leaders talked about the new party manifesto which was
approved at a recent policy retreat attended by all PDP
candidates. Dr. Ali also discussed changes to the party's
constitution that were passed at the convention in December,
the most important of which makes President Obasanjo head of
an invigorated PDP Board of Trustees upon his retirement from
office in May. Maduekwe and Ali firmly committed the party
to an April 2007 election and predicted that Governor
Yar'Adua will win the presidency with approximately the same
percentage of the vote that President Obasanjo obtained in

2003. End Summary.


2. (U) Dr. Amadu Ali explained the size and scope of the
PDP, saying that the party was present in all 8812 wards of
Nigeria's 774 local government areas in all 36 states and the
FCT, with additional chapters overseas representing the
diaspora. Not only does the PDP control the executive and
legislative branches of the federal government, 28 governors
belong to the PDP and their state assemblies are also
PDP-dominated. Despite the PDP's dominance in Nigerian
government, the party leadership became concerned about a
perceived lack of unity amongst PDP officeholders. The party
wants to ensure that a common thread of policy will unite a
PDP government in one state to another. To this end, the
party developed a new policy platform and held a 3-day
retreat in Abuja which was attended by President Obasanjo and
by all party-flagbearers from Governor Yar'Adua down to
candidates for state houses of assembly (Ref. A). The party
also instituted a new code of conduct and required that all
PDP candidates sign a "leadership bond", a contract with the
party that they will obey the code of conduct.


3. (C) Dr. Ali also noted that the PDP revised its
constitution at the December 2006 party convention (Ref. B).
The changes are designed to give the party's Board of
Trustees a more active role in the management of the party
hierarchy and a PDP government. The constitution NOW
stipulates that the Chairman of the Board of Trustees must be
a former president elected on the PDP platform -- a condition
which, at present, only President Obasanjo can fulfill. Ali
explained that in his new capacity as Chairman of the Board,
Obasanjo will continue to serve as an unofficial advisor to
the new government on matters such as foreign diplomacy.
(Note: This assumes that the new government comes from the
PDP.) The Board of Trustees will also work to ensure that
the PDP's platform is followed by its candidates and
officeholders.


4. (U) Chief Maduekwe said that the PDP leadership
instituted the new platform and constitutional changes
because of a "grand vision to deepen democracy in Nigeria."
He claimed that the PDP wants to be more than just a party to
form government, but a group that can ensure that democracy
can never suffer a reverse and can help "make Nigeria an
African and a global success story." He touted the party's
commitment to "20 by 2020," for Nigeria to become one of the
world's 20 largest economies by the year 2020.


5. (C) The PDP leadership was confident that the Yar'Adua
presidential campaign is off to a good start. The PDP
campaign headquarters opened recently in the Maitama district
of Abuja, and the Yar'Adua campaign will kick off January 27
in Lagos. Both Ali and Maduekwe stressed that the PDP wants
this to be an issues-based election and stressed that the PDP
manifesto will be at the forefront of Yar'Adua's campaign.
Dr. Ali admitted that voter registration got off to a rocky
start, as voters' initial enthusiasm for the registration
exercise was dampened by the severe shortage of machines.
However, he said that at last count 43 million voters have
been registered and when asked whether there was any chance
that the elections could be postponed, he replied that the
PDP was completely committed to April 2007 elections. Ali
and Maduekwe were unequivocal that April elections will
happen on time and predicted that Yar'Adua will win the

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presidency with a similar percentage of votes to what
President Obasanjo received in 2003, approximately 62%.


6. (C) COMMENT: It will be interesting to see whether the
party's new policy manifesto has any impact on the
presidential race, or whether the "politics as usual" of
money, ethnic/religious identity, and personality will
continue. The discussion of President Obasanjo's new role as
the Board of Trustees chairman was also noteworthy, as it may
fuel fears that Obasanjo will impose a weak, controllable
successor and continue to wield power himself behind the
scenes. It was striking, however, that the PDP leadership
was willing to firmly commit themselves to April elections,
given persistent rumors that the government is scheming to
delay the polls. END COMMENT.
CAMPBELL