SARAKI ASSERTS YAR'ADUA'S INDEPENDENCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001507 SIPDIS SIPDIS DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/13/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL NI SUBJECT: SARAKI ASSERTS YAR'ADUA'S INDEPENDENCE REF: ABUJA 1447 ABUJA 00001507 001.4 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4. (b & d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Parts of the traditional ruling circle are signaling to President Yar,adua that he must distance himself from former President Obasanjo. Some of them appear to be positioning themselves to supplant the former President,s influence. Kwara Governor Saraki on July 10 pitched the Ambassador on President Yar,adua,s independence from the former President. End summary. ¶2. (C) Over the weekend of July 7 there was a wedding involving a daughter of the wealthy Nigerian-Lebanese Shagoury clan in Monte Carlo. Present amongst others were former Chief of State Ibrahim Babangida, retired General and king-maker T.Y Danjuma, former National Security Advisor Aliyu Mohammed Gusau, former Vice President Atiku and his Vice Presidential running mate Senator Ben Obi, and Kwara state governor Bukola Saraki, who is also close to President Yar,adua. According to Saraki, there were present also a number of American Nigeria-watchers and Congressional staffers interested in Africa. The Shagoury family is one of the richest in Nigeria, and played a prominent role under former Chief of State Abacha. ¶3. (C) According to Obi, the Nigerian political leaders at the Shagoury wedding concluded that President Yar,adua must take steps to distance himself from former President Obasanjo, and that Babangida and Aliyu Mohammed were designated to lead the process. They were particularly concerned that the former President was vetoing their own cabinet recommendations. ¶4. (C) Upon his return to Abuja, Saraki asked to see the Ambassador on July 10. Governor Saraki requested the meeting, he said, to combat what he sees as a "misunderstanding" by Americans about the Yar'Adua government, namely that President Obasanjo continues to play a dominant role. Saraki also urged a future meeting between President Bush and President Yar'Adua, perhaps on the margins of UNGA. ¶5. (C) Governor Saraki explained that he recently attended a wedding in France, at which he spoke to a number of Americans who he described as opinion leaders from the media and Capitol Hill. The Americans reportedly told Saraki that they worry President Obasanjo continues to control the Nigerian government and that the cabinet will be dominated by his allies. The governor says that he tried to convince his American interlocutors that their impression was incorrect, but he also felt it was necessary to brief the Ambassador upon his return to Nigeria. ¶6. (C) Cabinet selection was a democratic process driven by the PDP at the state level, Saraki maintained. Each state submitted three names to President Yar'Adua, who then examined the list and put a tentative portfolio designation next to each name. The party then selected one nominee from each state, though Saraki estimated nominees from some five states were still up in the air. He noted that former President Obasanjo tried to insist on control of two key ministries, pushing former Governor Peter Odili (Rivers) for Petroleum Minister and Bode Augosto (Lagos) for Finance. Though Augusto did make the list submitted July 5 to the National Assembly, Odili did not. Governor Saraki also counseled that the international community was making too much of the former President's new role as Chairman of the PDP Board of Trustees. ¶7. (C) When the Ambassador raised the hastily convened, irregular meeting at which Obasanjo was elected, Saraki made no attempt to defend it, but noted that the Board Chairman is "only as relevant as the President allows him to be" since he has merely an advisory role. The Ambassador mentioned that the international community is especially interested in knowing which ministers will occupy which portfolios, and that we hope to see a fully functional government with which to work as soon as possible. Governor Saraki freely acknowledged that Nigeria at present has no government, but continued by saying that Ojo Maduekwe has been tapped for the ABUJA 00001507 002.6 OF 002 Ministry of Foreign Affairs "if he scales the Senate confirmation," while it was unclear who would occupy the Defense slot. ¶8. (C) The Governor asked when it might be possible for President Yar'Adua to meet with President Bush. He said that Yar'Adua was planning to travel to New York during the UN General Assembly. The Ambassador said he would pass this information along to Washington. ¶9. (C) Governor Saraki told the Ambassador that he, the Vice President, the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) Babagana Kingibe, the Finance Permanent Secretary, and the Central Bank Governor have formed a committee to work out a formula for how and under what circumstances the government may tap into the excess crude account. This formula should take into account the money supply in order to avoid inflation, and is supposed to regularize what has previously been a rather arbitrary process of using the account at the whim of the presidency. Saraki noted that the account includes monies that are being held for each state in addition to the federal government, but that up to now the governors have not received any kind of statements of how much money was available-- only the Central Bank Governor and the SGF had this information. The Ambassador praised this effort, saying that accurate accounting of the excess crude account combined with clear procedures for the funds use would be a big step towards greater transparency and rule of law. ¶10. (C) The Ambassador asked the Governor whether President Yar'Adua has taken any steps to reform INEC, as he has pledged. The Governor replied that the government remains committed to electoral reform, and in fact has signed agreements with both the ANPP and PPA for their participation in a "unity cabinet" which include commitments to electoral reform. However, Yar'Adua has also said that such reforms should wait until the conclusion of the cases challenging the outcomes of the recent elections, which Yar'Adua had said might take six months. Saraki reiterated, however, that a multi-party review of INEC will happen. ¶11. (C) Governor Saraki opined that the Niger Delta would pose a continuing problem for the Yar'Adua administration. The government was starting to make plans and have meetings on how to improve security and development in the region, he said, but he worried privately that "this won't be enough." The Ambassador raised the Gulf of Guinea Energy Security process and noted that the next meeting was being planned for the Hague at the end of July. Saraki was only vaguely aware of the Gulf of Guinea talks, and said that though the NNPC may be aware of the meeting, in his opinion, the President and other key players in the administration have not yet been fully briefed. The Ambassador shared some background information on the purpose and history of the talks, noting that Vice President Goodluck Jonathan had previously attended in his capacity as Bayelsa Governor. Saraki responded that such engagement between the GON and the donors sounded extremely useful and he promised to raise the Hague meeting with President Yar'Adua at their next meeting. ¶12. (C) Comment: The Nigerian politicians present at the Shagoury wedding have been political king makers in the past. All are part of networks that brought President Obasanjo to power after General Abacha,s 1998 death, and most opposed President Obasanjo,s Third Term aspirations. And, most had hostile or at best ambiguous relations with him by the time he left office. There is other agency reporting that Babangida and the former President are clashing over Yar,adua cabinet appointments. Saraki,s meeting with the American Ambassador would seem to fit in somehow with a struggle between Obasanjo and his allies and the traditional kingmakers over being the dominant voice in the emerging Yar,adua administration. End Comment. CAMPBELL