GNU STALLING AFTER PDP INTRIGUES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 001447 SIPDIS SIPDIS DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI SUBJECT: GNU STALLING AFTER PDP INTRIGUES ABUJA 00001447 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4. (b & d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The Yar'Adua government's attempt to reconcile with opposition parties and create a "government of national unity" seems to be faltering. Although representatives of the ANPP, AC, and PPA met with the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) on June 26 and 27 to negotiate terms and agreements were signed with the PPA and ANPP, subsequent events including changes within the PDP may have derailed the unity talks. On June 27, a hastily convened meeting of the PDP Board of Trustees unanimously voted to install former President Obasanjo as its Chairman. This move was widely viewed as a kind of coup within the party due to its timing and nature. Questions remain as to the Yar'Adua government's ability to disentangle itself from Obasanjo and exert true independence. End Summary. Government of National Unity Stalling -------------- ¶2. (C) In late June, President Yar'Adua announced his intention to invite the All Nigerian People's Party (ANPP), Action Congress (AC),and Progressive People's Alliance (PPA) into his government. His stated rationale for talking to those three parties was that they had won control of state governments. (Note: APGA, in control of Anambra State after the recent Supreme Court decision reinstalling Peter Obi, was notably excluded.) Talks began on June 26 between representatives of the opposition parties and a committee from the PDP, including some recently reconciled old guard PDP members who had fallen out with Obasanjo. ¶3. (C) Both the PPA and ANPP reps signed agreements which were publicized on June 27 about their intention to join in Yar'Adua's government and accept seats in cabinet and other high-level advisor positions. The ANPP National Secretary and vice presidential candidate Chief Edwin Ezeoke and several ANPP governors participated in the talks. However, ANPP presidential candidate General Muhammadu Buhari has never been on board with the GNU talks and he has publicly lambasted the ANPP for "betraying him" and negotiating with an "illegitimate" government. Buhari has vowed to continue his court case challenging Yar'Adua's election, even if the ANPP as a party decides to enter government. PPA presidential candidate and former Abia governor Orji Kalu has not spoken publicly about his party's planned participation. ¶4. (C) Ambassador and Poloff met with AC vice presidential candidate Senator Ben Obi on June 26, who confirmed that his party was in talks with the PDP but outlined stringent conditions for AC entry into government. Per Obi, the AC demanded that INEC be dissolved and its top officials, especially Chairman Maurice Iwu, fired; that the government commit to serious electoral reform including amendment of the 2006 Electoral Act; that AC supporters allegedly still jailed in some states since the election period be released; and most importantly that fresh elections be held within 18 months to two years. If and only if such conditions were met, the AC would participate in a unity government and drop its challenge to the presidential election, Obi said. He indicated that the party was not interested in a few token ministerial slots because wholesale reform was needed. Senator Obi stressed that the AC has an outstanding legal team and he was confident that the AC will eventually win their presidential challenge, "perhaps by August." However, he admitted that a court decision overturning the results of the presidential election had the potential to throw the country in disarray, and that therefore out of patriotism and concern for order, the AC might be willing to work towards new elections and drop its suit. ¶5. (C) On July 5, the AC's National Executive Council met in Abuja in order to reconcile 3 reported factions within the party-- one which favored joining government, one opposed, and a third which counseled caution. After a seven hour closed-door meeting, the party decided to formally reject participation in the proposed unity government and to continue to pursue its petition against the results of the April elections. Party spokesmen told the media that its demands for dissolution of INEC, release of imprisoned party ABUJA 00001447 002.2 OF 003 members, and release of audited information about oil revenues and privatization of state assets had not been met. National Secretary Bashir Dalhatu said that any member of the AC who joins the government will be removed from the party, and he announced that AC gubernatorial candidate in Ondo state Ademola Adegoroye, who recently agreed to withdraw his challenge and join PDP Governor Agagu's administration, was suspended from the Action Congress. Party spokesman Lai Mohammed urged the government to show its supposed commitment to reform even without AC participation, and noted that if ANPP and PPA have agreed to join the unity government, it could be important for the AC to remain in opposition to avoid tendencies toward a one-party state. Palace Coup within the PDP -------------- ¶6. (C) On June 25, the PDP's National Executive Committee (NEC) met in Abuja and agreed to retain the party's incumbent leadership, including PDP Board of Trustees Chairman Tony Anenih. President Yar'Adua presided over the meeting and party office holders including National Secretary Ojo Maduekwe, National Chairman Ahmadu Ali, and 19 state governors were in attendance. Former President Obasanjo was not present, as he was reportedly on his way back to Nigeria from a holiday in the Caribbean. The NEC also agreed to set up a "reconciliation committee" headed by former Vice President Alex Ekwueme, which was charged with bringing aggrieved former PDP members back into the fold, and cleared former Senate President Ken Nnamani of charges of anti-party activities for his outspoken criticism during and after the April polls. The June 25 NEC meeting was widely portrayed in the media as a blow to Obasanjo, as he was expected to be named the new Chairman of the Board of Trustees after the December 2006 amendment to the PDP constitution. ¶7. (C) However, the tide seemed to turn on June 27. Chairman Tony Anenih announced that a BOT meeting would be held that evening at 8pm and invited the board's 79 members to attend. However, others within the party moved the meeting time up to noon and did not pass this information to all members. Only 30 members of the board were present at the hastily-convened meeting (which did not constitute a quorum and violated the party's constitution),though the participants included President Obasanjo, President Yar'Adua, Vice President Jonathan, National Chair Ali, and national Secretary Maduekwe. BOT Chairman Anenih was absent, and other BOT members who reportedly tried to enter the meeting while it was in progress were denied admittance. Media reports indicate that President Obasanjo was unanimously confirmed as the new BOT chairman, despite the intrigues and procedural irregularities. There was speculation in the media that Obasanjo's re-emergence as the BOT Chair would derail attempts at reconciling ex-PDP members, and some in Tony Anenih's camp characterized the meeting as a "palace coup." Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Though the term "government of national unity" has been used a great deal in the Nigerian press, there are a variety of interpretations circulating about just what such a government would look like. To some, a unity government means token participation in government by a few opposition representatives, while others use the term to signify a reform-minded coalition aimed at holding new elections in a short-medium timeframe. It would appear that the reform-minded coalition is less and less likely, given the lack of participation by mainstream opposition candidates and the AC's recent withdrawal from unity government talks. ¶9. (C) Numerous interlocutors in past weeks from both the PDP and opposition parties have spoken to Poloffs about what they see as near-universal unhappiness with former President Obasanjo as a uniting factor amongst Nigerians. One northern traditional leader told Poloff that the PDP knowingly accepted some of Obasanjo's proposals, such as the constitutional change enabling him to become BOT Chairman, as a kind of "deal with the devil" in order to appease him and assure his withdrawal from office. However, according to ABUJA 00001447 003.2 OF 003 this source, the party and the government are now engaged in a process of "disentanglement" -- attempting to remove some of Obasanjo's control of the party and of government -- and that this disentanglement will need to be done slowly and carefully over at least six months. Though President Yar'Adua has made some positive, reform-minded statements about the elections, anti-corruption, and other policies, we need to keep in mind that Yar'Adua may not be fully free to pursue his own agenda for some months. CAMPBELL