NIGERIA ELECTION SNAPSHOTS #4

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000131 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/W AND INR/AA NSC FOR CHUDSON E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI ELECTIONS SUBJECT: NIGERIA ELECTION SNAPSHOTS #4 REF: A. 06 ABUJA 3216 ¶B. 06 ABUJA 3061 ¶C. 06 ABUJA 2917 ABUJA 00000131 001.2 OF 002 THIS CABLE IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. ¶1. (SBU) This cable is the fourth in a series of elections snapshots designed to provide a sense of the local environment in the run up to the elections planned for April ¶2007. In-depth information will continue to be reported in septels, with the snapshot format being used to convey interesting and pertinent anecdotes or facts. Post welcomes any comments or suggestions. -------------- TALLY OF CANDIDATES -------------- ¶2. (SBU) As the February 3 deadline to withdraw candidates and the February 13 deadline for their replacement approaches, the leading political parties have held their conventions, named their candidates and, in most cases, selected vice presidential running mates. The list at present is: People's Democratic Party (PDP): Katsina Governor Umar Musa Yar,Adua. Running mate is Bayelsa Governor Goodluck Jonathan. The PDP announced the kick-off of their presidential campaign will be January 27 in Lagos; however, Yar'adua has already been making a series of appearances around the country. All Nigerian People's Party (ANPP): General Muhammadu Buhari. Running mate is Chief Edwin Umeh Ezeoke (from the southwest), current ANPP Chairman. Buhari,s running mate is rumored to be likely to change as negotiations continue. Two front runners at the moment are John Nwodo, former Minister of Information, and Ken Nnamani, current Senate President. In a January 22 public statement, Buhari warned of a "crisis of very serious proportions" if the April elections are marred by rigging. Action Congress (AC): Atiku Abubakar. Running mate is Chudi Nwuke. African Democratic Congress (ADC):Professor Pat Utomi Alliance for Democracy (AD): Adebayo Adefarati Democratic People's Party (DPP): Sokoto Governor Attahiru Bafarawa. Bafarawa will launch his campaign on January 24 in Kaduna. He later plans to travel to Enugu, Port Harcourt, and Lagos. Progressive People's Alliance (PPA): Abia Governor Orji Uzor Kalu. Running mate is Mariya Baba All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA): Odumegwu Ojukwu National Democratic Party (NDP): Habu Fari Fresh Democratic Party (FRESH): Reverend Chris Okotie National Conscience Party (NCP): Osagie Obanuwa. Running mate is Yanusa Tanko African Renaissance PArty (ARP): Yahaya E. Ndu Citizen Popular Party (CPP): Maxi Okwu Massess Movement of Nigeria (MMN): Mokisola Adekunles Obasanjo Better Nigerian Progressive Party (BNPP): Iheanyi Godswill Nnaji -------------- INEC AND VOTER REGISTRATION -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Media reports on January 23 indicate that the Villa ABUJA 00000131 002.2 OF 002 is concerned by a move in the Senate to declare a vote of no confidence in Maurice Iwu's leadership of INEC. A two-thirds vote would theoretically compel President Obsanjo to remove Iwu from office, although there is speculation over whether the president would comply. The bill is sponsored by Senator Timothy Adudu of Plateau State. ¶4. (SBU) The Action Congress (AC) secured an injunction in Abuja High Court on January 22 preventing INEC from continuing its candidate verification exercise. If INEC honors the order, they would be prevented from issuing any statement saying that Atiku's legal troubles disqualify him from seeking the presidency. Atiku's campaign claims that this is the only purpose of the verification exercise, which has already screened and cleared PDP candidate Umaru Yar'adua. Other political parties and, in fact, state and local PDP candidates have also maintained INEC's screening of candidates is outside its mandate and authority. INEC continues to claim that its screening process is aimed at "verifying the validity of credentials;" however, no specifics have been given on what this means. ¶5. (SBU) Press reports indicate that two direct data capture machines were found in the home of former Chief of Staff to the former Oyo State Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala. The machines were allegedly being used to carry out duplicate registrations. Despite attempts to flee with the machines, three persons were arrested, including one INEC official, and the machines were recovered. The Oyo State INEC Resident Commissioner claimed to have no knowledge of how the machines ended up in a private residence on the opposite side of the state from their appointed site. The arrests were made by SSS, with local sources telling the press that calls to the police and INEC to alert them of the abuse were ignored. ¶6. (SBU) Kwara and Ekiti states both declared two work-free days during the week of January 22-26 in order to allow workers to register in larger numbers for the upcoming elections. -------------- ATIKU RETURNS - LONDON MEETING WITH BUHARI -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Vice President Atiku Abubakar returned to Abuja on January 21 following a month's vacation in the United States. Press reports indicate that before returning to Abuja, Atiku met in London with ANPP candidate General Buhari to discuss a possible ANPP/AC alliance for the forthcoming elections. The GON prevented all but 20 of Atiku's supporters from meeting his plane as it landed in Abuja. Upon his return, the Vice President says is unable to return to his official residence and office because the President continues to deny him perks of the office such as security details and paid staff. Representatives of the presidency maintain that Atiku has simply chosen to stay away. The Supreme Court will hear the suit brought by Atiku, seeking to stop Obasanjo's attempts to remove him as Vice President, on January 25. CAMPBELL