NIGERIA: HALF OF ELIGIBLE VOTERS REGISTERED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000123 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/18/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI SUBJECT: NIGERIA: HALF OF ELIGIBLE VOTERS REGISTERED REF: ABUJA 78 ABUJA 00000123 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) says it has registered 35 million voters as of January 18. However, IFES has serious concerns about data quality and the transfer of data from 40,000 registration machines into a central database to form the voters roll. Less than two weeks remain for INEC to finish registering the additional 30-35 million Nigerians eligible to vote-- a daunting task However, INEC has made good progress on procurement of ballot boxes and papers as well as drafting of instructions for election observers and party agents. Campaign activities are underway, though some parties are in the process of substituting new candidates to replace those originally nominated at primaries in December. Several parties are unhappy with INEC's decision to screen all candidates to ensure they meet eligibility requirements. End summary. ¶2. (U) On January 18, Ambassador, Embassy and USAID officials met with the election partners group (IFES, IRI, NDI, and PACT) to discuss Nigeria's progress on elections preparations. The meeting focused on technical issues, especially those related to voter registration, and party activities. -------------- Voter registration update -------------- ¶3. (C) INEC told IFES that as of January 17, it had registered 35 million voters. Since Nigeria's population is 140 million, according to the recently announced census, there are a projected 65-70 million eligible voters. This means that perhaps half of the electorate is yet to be enrolled with only two weeks remaining in the registration period. Though INEC has touted that it is conducting "revalidation" of the 2003 voters roll, such claims are meaningless. Anyone who wishes to enroll, whether or not they were registered in 2003, has to appear in person at a registration machine to have their photo and fingerprints captured. Voter registration will close on January 31 and be followed by a display period of several days, during which voters will be able to examine the roll. According to IFES, voters will not have much recourse if they find problems with the posted list, as the final voters roll must be published February 14. ¶4. (C) IFES also cautioned that the 35 million registrations have not yet been examined or downloaded to a central database. Registration is being conducted with 40,000 machines around the country, many of which are laptop computers rather than the handheld direct data capture (DDC) machines originally procured by INEC from companies in Canada, South Africa, and Malaysia. According to IFES, the laptops have worked better in the field than the handhelds. However, the laptops are less secure, as employees might be able to manipulate registration data stored on the laptop until it is transmitted to the central database. IFES also remains generally concerned about data quality and says that additional errors may occur when INEC tries to download all of the millions of registrations in a short period, rather than doing so gradually over time. -------------- Other Election Logistics -------------- ¶5. (C) IFES is pleased with INEC's progress on procurement of ballot papers and ballot boxes. INEC has purchased 250,000 ballot boxes, which they expect to receive by the end of the month. IFES has examined the specifications developed for INEC's procurement of ballot papers and believes that they are well-written and include the necessary security features. The ballot papers will include candidate names and photos as well as party logos. The ballots cannot be printed until after the February 14 deadline for parties to substitute candidates and IFES notes that distribution of the ballots to the 120,00 polling places will be a huge challenge ¶6. (C) INEC, with help from IFES, has drafted an instruction manual to govern the conduct of observers and party agents. However, the manual is stalled in the INEC clearance process. IRI has completed a training manual for party polling ABUJA 00000123 002.2 OF 002 agents. They will conduct training for 1800 master trainers of party polling agents in February. -------------- Campaigns and parties -------------- ¶7. (C) IRI noted that campaign activities are underway, though the official INEC start date for campaigns for federal offices is January 21. Many parties are replacing some of the candidates they originally nominated in December, as they are permitted to do until February 14. The PDP has announced it will shuffle some of its gubernatorial and senate nominees. IRI has heard that Speaker of the House Masari will be given the PDP gubernatorial ticket in Katsina, and Ibrahim Shema, who was originally nominated for governor, will be nominated for one of Katsina's Senatorial districts instead. According to IRI, many political parties are unhappy about the role that INEC has taken in "screening" all candidates to ensure they meet eligibility requirements. However, Nigeria's law is vague on this point, and INEC may not be overstepping its mandate by checking that candidates meet requirements about age and education. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) INEC has made progress on both voter registration and procurement of voting materials. However, serious questions about the voter registration exercise still threaten the April 2007 polls. Newspaper headlines this week alleged that the election could be postponed, perhaps until August, due to INEC's mismanagement of the voter registration exercise. Some National Assembly members told the press that the entire voters roll could be challenged in court, as INEC "illegally" continued to register voters after December 14. INEC has publicly denied that any such delay is possible and National Assembly members to whom we spoke also reassured us that elections will not be postponed. Delay of the elections, unless achieved by a constitutional amendment or state of emergency declaration, would be extralegal or illegal. Post will continue to closely monitor this issue and to reiterate publicly and privately that we expect credible elections in April and a peaceful transition from one civilian elected government to another on May 29, 2007. CAMPBELL