A/S FRAZER'S MAY 29 MEETING WITH NIGERIAN CIVIL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001169

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/04/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI
SUBJECT: A/S FRAZER'S MAY 29 MEETING WITH NIGERIAN CIVIL
SOCIETY


ABUJA 00001169 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4. (b & d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: A/S Frazer met on May 29 with
representatives of civil society groups that had been
involved in the 2007 elections. While the participants
disagreed amongst themselves on many of the issues
surrounding the elections, they agreed that the Nigerian
electorate had been, in effect, disenfranchised through an
event in which votes were not even counted. Still, the
groups had mixed feelings about a Yar'Adua presidency and
appeared to be maintaining a hopeful approach tempered by
low expectations. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) A/S Frazer met with representatives of the Nigeria
Labour Congress (NLC),the Nigeria Bar Association (NBA),
the Transition Monitoring Group (TMG),and the Alliance for
Credible Elections (ACE). While the NLC representative
advocated more training for government officials and civil
society, the ACE representative argued that training
programs were not important. "It is not about democratic
illiteracy," he said, but rather the "lack of political
will." He said some civil society organizations had
been "coopted" by international donors and urged to give
training to government officials. Others concurred that
accepting foreign funding required them to buy into the
programs proposed by donors rather than working on
practical steps to move Nigeria's elections forward.

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THE APRIL ELECTIONS
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3. (C) All groups agreed that the April 2007 elections
were Nigeria's "worst ever" and assigned the blame to
"shifty state executives," a "lack of strong leadership"
inside and outside government, and a ruling People's
Democratic Party (PDP) that is "unnecessarily assertive and
unreasonably greedy." Still, the TMG representative said,
in spite of a bad voters register and bad candidates,
people tried to vote. ACE agreed that the people wanted to
vote to hold representatives accountable.


4. (C) There was a difference of opinion as to whether the
Independent National Election Commission (INEC) Chairman
Maurice Iwu was merely incompetent or complicit in the
deeply flawed polling, but all agreed that he was
ultimately responsible for the lapses in the electoral
process. The NBA representative said that INEC never
seriously addressed issues from the 2003 elections,
probably because there was no plan to hold elections until
the collapse of the "third-term agenda." All agreed,
though, that "no law could have protected the country from
the April events" since the national leadership had already
determined to "ignore the law" and control the process.

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THE FUTURE OF DEMOCRACY IN NIGERIA
--------------


5. (C) The TMG representative expressed her concern about
the future of Nigerian democracy, saying that this election
had only proved that Nigeria's elite cares little about
it. She said that while most people view the Nigerian
electorate as apathetic, the opposite is really the case.
"Nigerians are angry and frustrated," she said. She
posited that Nigerians are willing to vote for "the right
candidates" but that it was impossible for good candidates
to be nominated in a rigged process. The group pointed out
that the disadvantage faced by opposition parties stemmed
from the "state's use of overwhelming resources, its
flouting of court orders and its control of the security
services to support PDP partisans."


6. (C) "The elections on April 14th were robbery, and on
April 21st, no one came out," the TMG representative said.
She averred that INEC's allegiance "is to the ruling party
and not to the country." The NLC representative blamed the
violence during the elections on the "manipulations of the
Presidency." According to the NBA, the current system will
not enable the Nigerian people to hold officials

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accountable, since they had not been elected in a credible
polling. The TMG representative pointed out that until the
cost-benefit ratio for those rigging elections is changed,
there will be no chance for democracy in Nigeria.

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THE WAY FORWARD
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7. (C) All agreed that the imbalance in the power
relationship between the "ruled and the rulers" is too
great to overcome domestically, and they suggested greater
international support to enable civil society to correct
the balance. The ACE representative also said that the
time for blaming "the system" is past and that it is
necessary instead to blame individuals for their failures,
a position endorsed by the NLC representatives. TMG
pointed out that rigging "gets better" with each election.
NBA said that in this election, there is no way to trace
back control of the ballots or results, a problem that will
hinder the tribunal process.


8. (C) The NLC representatives said that the international
community's weak response would "dignify" the April
election. ACE agreed but conceded that the international
community would necessarily engage with the government in
power. "Nigerians have a role as well," he stated. He
suggested that if Nigerians were "in the streets," the
international response would have been stronger. He also
said that the international community still has a role to
play to help empower Nigeria's citizens. He suggested a
"forty percent solution": while normal relations continue
and cooperation on many issues moves ahead (50 to 60
percent of international relations),the international
community should also ensure that the Nigerian government
was not rewarded for the embarrassing election through
appointments to international positions, invitations to
certain conferences and other measures (the remaining 40
percent).


9. (C) They all suggested that with the consolidation of
Nigeria as virtually a PDP one-party state, the government
"has no incentive to reform without external pressure."
"While only the Nigerian people can force reforms on the
government, they cannot do it without international
support," he concluded.

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COMMENT
--------------


10. (C) While their opinions and descriptions varied, the
core position of these groups was that the 2007 elections
were Nigeria's worst, and that addressing the most
egregious results and instituting reform are crucial to
Nigeria's future. None of the groups gave any indication
of planning activities for the immediate future, and it is
unclear whether they intend to embark on further mass
demonstrations. Still, all the groups seem to be
anticipating a Yar'Adua presidency with an element of
hopefulness, and were anxious to see how the new
President's initiatives would be implemented. This
hopefulness, however, was tempered by a dose of skepticism
over the prospects of a manipulated and divisive mandate
transforming itself into an open and inclusive presidency.


11. (U) A/S Frazer cleared this cable.
CAMPBELL