PACING THE UAE'S POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABU DHABI 001688

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

TUNIS FOR MEPI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2017
TAGS: PREL KDEM KMPI AE
SUBJECT: PACING THE UAE'S POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT


Classified by Ambassador Michele Sison, reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).

REF: ABU DHABI 1687


1. (C) Minister of State for Federal National Council (FNC)
Affairs Anwar Gargash told a USG delegation (including
Ambassador-at-large for Trafficking-in-Persons Lagon, NEA/ARP
Director Steinfeld, Ambassador Sison, and Dubai Consul
General Sutphin) that political development naturally lagged
behind other areas in the UAE. On the social front, for
example, the UAE is a highly tolerant society with a
well-developed landscape for women's participation;
free-market economic success makes the UAE a natural
participant in globalization. Cognizant of what is happening
in the region, yet "not really under pressure" to boost the
pace of political development, the conservative UAE took the
initiative of "opening up a bit" with partial elections to
the FNC in December, 2006.


2. (C) Faced with expanding crises in the region (a "two
crisis" Middle East having become a "five crisis" hub),the
UAE had chosen the FNC as a place to start opening the
political system due to its national profile -- which made it
more attractive than a municipal council vote. The FNC
already had decades of experience as a functioning
institution with roots in the constitution.


3. (C) Amid complaints by some that its efforts were
superficial -- and by others that it ran the risk of
duplicating Kuwait's chaotic political evolution, the UAEG
chose electors, considered expanded powers for the FNC, and
conducted a national election for the first time in its
history. With most of the population initially disinterested
in the vote, the UAEG opened the door slightly to political
participation. The results of a "technically sound" election
process sent a message to decision makers that they should
not fear elections (which do not necessarily lead to division
or violence),while letting the population know that
elections have merit as a governing principle. Gargash's
ministry had assembled by-laws to ensure fair and calm
elections, in the process "setting a marker" that the UAEG
would not be able to walk back in the future. While campaign
debates were "amateurish" (generally "too flowery and too
long"),the UAE now has a "half semi-elected council" without
the chaos or divisiveness witnessed elsewhere.


4. (C) The UAE's goal is not democracy per se, said Gargash,
but "more institutional channels for representation." In
that context the electronically-coordinated vote was a
"textbook success." Citizens of the UAE saw an orderly
process. While the country's political infrastructure is not
ready for full elections, said Gargash, the elections had
worked out many bugs in the system (such as residency rules
for the various emirates),and set a baseline for taking
further "humble steps" in political development in the
future. The UAE's leadership thus took a top-down approach
to protecting order while broadening participation; popular
demand was not a primary driving force.


5. (U) Ambassador Lagon approved this message.
Trafficking-in-Persons aspects of the meeting with Gargash
reported reftel.
SISON