U.S.-UAE GULF SECURITY DIALOGUE AND JOINT MILITARY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ABU DHABI 001161 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS STATE FOR NEA/ARP, NEA/FO-DAS GRAY, PM AA/S MULL, T A/S ROOD, PDAS MCNERNEY, DOD FOR OSD PDAS MARY BETH LONG, CENTCOM FOR MAJ GEN FINDLEY NSC FOR N RAMCHAND, M DORAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/12/2017 TAGS: PREL PTER PARM MOPS MASS KNNP IR AE SUBJECT: U.S.-UAE GULF SECURITY DIALOGUE AND JOINT MILITARY COMMITTEE: AN UPDATE AND WAY FORWARD RECOMMENDATIONS REF: A. ABU DHABI 458 ¶B. 06-ABU DHABI 2930 ¶C. 06-ABU DHABI 3835 ¶D. 06-ABU DHABI 4302 ¶E. ABU DHABI 1143 Classified By: Ambassador Michele J. Sison, reasons 1.4 (b and d). ¶1. (S) Summary: Since the May 2007 Gulf Security Dialogue (GSD),and earlier meetings of the Joint Military Committee (JMC) working groups and Air and Missile Defense working group, we have seen progress in our bilateral mil-to-mil and security relationship in the areas of defense cooperation and regional security. Notably, the UAEG has indicated strong interest in purchasing 12 Patriot PAC-3/GEM-T anti-ballistic missile batteries and other lower and upper tier missile defense systems in order to create an overarching Air and Missile Defense (AMD) architecture and Concept of Operations (CONOPS). UAE has also received a Letter of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) from the U.S. Liaison Office for the purchase of the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) and has agreed to host the multilateral exercise EAGLE RESOLVE 2008 (ER08) with a Theater Air and Missile Defense (TAMD) theme. Additionally, both Boeing and Northrop-Grumman will provide Requests for Information (RFIs) on an Airborne Early Warning and Control aircraft (&Wedgetail8 and E2-D Hawkeye respectively) on 15 July ¶2007. The UAE currently has over $2.6B in Foreign Military Sales (FMS) cases and another $8.5B plus in direct commercial sales in the BLOCK 60 F-16 program, the first hybrid F-16 case and one of the premier cases in the USCENTCOM AOR. END SUMMARY. -------------- Enhanced Defense Capabilities and Cooperation -------------- ¶2. (S/NF) On June 28, Ambassador met with Raytheon Corporation representatives who reported that Yousef Al-Otaiba, International Affairs Director for Abu Dhabi Crown Prince/Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed (MbZ),has indicated firm UAE interest in the purchase of 10 Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3/GEM-T) anti-ballistic missile batteries, estimated at USD 4-7 billion. Additional interest was expressed regarding Surface Launched Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (SLAMRAAM) and Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD). USLO has since received a Letter of Request from the UAE for price and availability of 12 batteries. MbZ had previously stated that he wants a complete missile defense system in place by summer 2009 (Ref A). United States Central Command (USCENTCOM),s Bilateral Air Defense Initiative (BADI) is the operational framework to implement the GSD concepts for an overarching AMD architecture to include Shared Early Warning (SEW),Common Air Picture, and regional air/missile defense. ¶3. (S/NF) The UAE's expression of interest in a specific U.S. missile defense platform that would be interoperable with other U.S. systems would be the largest Patriot program outside Japan, Germany, and Saudi Arabia. It could be integrated with the programs in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to obtain a shared Common Air Picture. In April 2006, U.S. Army missile defense experts identified and surveyed six potential PAC-3 emplacement locations to cover key strategic nodes such as the Al Dhafra and Al Bateen Air Bases, the Fujairah airport, and the Jebel Ali and Fujairah ports. The assessments were based on a critical asset list provided to USCENTCOM by the UAEG. The locations were selected to defend against a threat from an Iranian missile attack axis and to protect portions of the metropolitan areas of Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Fujairah (Ref A). USLO Chief met with Staff Air Vice Marshall (Major General) Mohammed Sowaidan Al Gimzy, UAE Commander of Air Force and Air Defense (UAE AF&AD) on July 8, ¶2007. Sowaidan said that he was the lead on the AMD project. USLO received the Patriot Letter of Request (LoR) for 12 batteries on July 11, 2007. Finally, USLO and Raytheon were informed that the UAE intends to provide an LoR for a classified briefing on SLAMRAAM. The UAE had previously requested a classified briefing on THAAD, which is currently in Exception to National Disclosure Policy (ENDP) release coordination. The UAEG has alluded to an interest in contributing funds to the spiral development of follow-on ABU DHABI 00001161 002 OF 003 THAAD programs/upgrades. ¶4. (S/NF) In response to the UAEG request for a High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) package, valued at USD 650 million, U.S. Liaison Office (USLO) presented an LoA to the UAEG on July 1, 2007. The UAEG has until September 1 to accept the offer. The HIMARS would afford the UAE a counter battery capability against a ballistic missile threat. The overall objective of our missile defense cooperation is to develop an interoperable, full-spectrum capability in order to provide protection against short range, lower tier and upper tier ballistic missile and air-breathing threats like enemy aircraft and cruise missiles. The purchase of HIMARS, and recent interest in Patriot PAC-3, are indications that the Emiratis understand our arguments about interoperability in key air defense systems, and are seeking a layered air defense with strategic depth. Additionally, the USG is working with the UAE to provide them CENTRIX, a classified communications system, Common Air Picture, SEW and a CONOPS to integrate command, control and the Air and Missile defense system. The UAE has expressed that the AMD be an all encompassing architecture. They have also stressed the importance of this being a well-coordinated &team8 effort including both the USG and all applicable U.S. commercial contractors. -------------- Regional Security -------------- ¶5. (S/NF) At the request of CENTCOM, the UAE has agreed to host the multilateral exercise EAGLE RESOLVE 2008 (ER08), scheduled for execution in April-May 2008. Expected participants in ER08 include the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) plus Egypt and Jordan (GCC 2),in addition to numerous observer nations from the region and beyond. The UAE hosted EAGLE RESOLVE in 2004. This multilateral exercise, with a Theater Air Missile Defense (TAMD) theme, will be an opportunity for the UAE to build on, and showcase recent Air and Missile Defense advances as well as its procurement of CENTRIX, SEW and Common Air Picture. The SEW site survey has been funded and is expected to take place August 23-31, 2007, with Initial Operating Capability (IOC) approximately 6 months after the survey. The first CENTRIX terminal, destined for the UAE Navy Operations Center is in the final stages of installation (PHASE 1) with PHASES 2 and 3 to be completed within one year in numerous other UAE command locations. The Common Air Picture working group is planning to meet mid August 2007 (location TBD),to discuss the Common Air Picture and associated CONOPs. ¶6. (S) The EAGLE RESOLVE exercise scenario will also include elements of consequence management, counter terrorism, and medical emergency response, and may lead to further coordination on Critical Infrastructure Defense (CID) and the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI). Exercises like ER08, that steadily increase in sophistication and emphasize interoperability in joint and combined operations, are central in advancing GSD objectives to build a multilateral security framework. The ER08 Concept Development Conference (CDC) was held June 23-26, 2007 and the Initial Planning Conference is scheduled for September 8-12. The UAE,s concept for the exercise was in step with USCENTCOM, USLO and Embassy objectives. ¶7. (S/NF) The Emirati leadership has on a number of occasions expressed concern about the threat of growing Iranian influence throughout the region, including in Iraq, yet has consistently pursued a cautious and non-confrontational public posture towards Iran (refs B, C). In the past, the UAE has been hesitant to participate in exercises designed to send a clear message to Tehran, and has come under pressure from Iran prior to previous multilateral exercises (ref D). The UAE did, however, send observers to exercise LEADING EDGE 07 in October 2006 in the Arabian Gulf, which had a PSI theme. The decision to host exercise ER08 is a significant step for the UAE, which is mindful of its close economic ties with Iran, the nature of the very proximate &existential8 threat from a much larger power, and the significant Persian-origin population within the UAE (estimated at up to 400,000). ABU DHABI 00001161 003 OF 003 -------------- Counterproliferation - Export Control Law -------------- ¶8. (S) The UAE Federal National Council has passed an export control law, which is currently awaiting ratification from the rulers of the individual emirates, before signature by UAE President Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al-Nahyan. Prior to the June 2007 Counterproliferation Task Force Working Group (CTF) meeting in Abu Dhabi, post passed a list of specific questions that the UAE should consider as it sets up its export control regime. Post has been working with Department on an engagement plan to assist the UAE in effectively implementing its new export control system. Additionally, the inclusion of PSI themes in the IRON FALCON exercise, hosted by the UAE,s Air Warfare Center and IRON MAGIC, a naval surface warfare exercise, was well received by the UAE. The PSI themes in these exercises will most likely take table-top form in the initial iterations, with increasing complexity, and with the ultimate goal being an integrated Field Training Exercise (FTX) in the future. -------------- --- Defense Cooperation Agreement/Joint Military Committee -------------- --- ¶9. (S) Embassy Abu Dhabi recommends that the USG should determine as early as possible an appropriate "way-ahead" strategy in response to the UAE on its draft Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA),submitted to the embassy in Arabic and dated August 28, 2006 (ref E). With JMC working group meetings, including the DCA working group, proposed for October 17-19, 2007 in Tampa, we recommend presenting our DCA draft to UAE by September 15 in hope of securing UAE concurrence, at least along main lines, by the full Joint Military Committee (JMC) meeting tentative for January 15-17, 2008 in Abu Dhabi. Recognizing the high UAEG interest in continued military cooperation, including big ticket military hardware purchases previously mentioned (SL-AMRAAM, Patriot PAC-3/GEM-T, THAAD, HIMARS, Blackhawks, Apache Upgrade, etc.),we see the value of a new DCA superseding the unratified 1994 version as the official basis for existing (and expanding) mil-to-mil cooperation, but we simultaneously caution against linking the negotiation of a DCA to any foreign military or direct commercial sales. -------------- -------------- Way Forward for a Robust Political Military Relationship -------------- -------------- ¶10. (S) A very healthy U.S.-UAE political-military relationship serves as a backdrop to current regional events. The UAE gives strong support in the war on terror, has cooperated with us in Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon and with the Palestinians, and provides basing and over-flight for U.S. reconnaissance and refueling assets, as well as naval logistics support. The F-16 Block 60 program is a showcase of cooperation; the UAE took delivery of the last of 79 F-16 aircraft in October, one having been lost in a mishap since the original purchase of 80 planes. Another example of robust and expanding military cooperation is the Gulf Air Warfare Center at Al Dhafra Air Base. This regional facility is enhancing interoperability and cooperation between the U.S. and members of the GCC, Egypt, Jordan, the UK and France. In the future, the U.S. plans to help the UAE develop a state-of-the-art tactical range, incorporate USN and USMC assets as participants, and use tankers for air-to-air refueling. We look forward to building further upon a strong political-military foundation, and towards locking in and sharpening the focus of UAE cooperation in the face of what could well be mounting threats in the region. SISON