COTE D'IVOIRE: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS BY OCTOBER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 000995 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/24/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL UN IV SUBJECT: COTE D'IVOIRE: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS BY OCTOBER 2008; AUDIENCES FORAINES TO BEGIN INCREMENTALLY REF: A. ABIDJAN 909 ¶B. ABIDJAN 935 ABIDJAN 00000995 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i. Cynthia Akuetteh for Reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) President Robert Mambe announced September 13 that Cote d'Ivoire will be ready for presidential elections by October ¶2008. Mambe has always asserted that it would take 10-12 months to complete the identification and voter registration processes once the audiences foraines are underway (reftel B). Given Prime Minister Soro's September 12 announcement that the audiences foraines will begin September 25, Mambe contends that elections by October 2008 offers a reasonable timeframe. To date there has been no official comment or even an acknowledgment from the President or the Prime Minister regarding Mambe's announcement. In a September 19 meeting with Charge, Mambe described the lingering debate about the number of people the audiences foraines need to register as well as security for identification and elections as the most critical challenges facing the government. In a September 20 meeting with Emboffs, a Ministry of Justice official noted that only 25 of the 111 tribunals scheduled to adjudicate audiences foraines cases will begin on September ¶25. International observers are largely pessimistic about a successful kickoff of the audiences foraines and the prospects of elections being held by October 2008. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) President Robert Mambe announced September 13 that Cote d'Ivoire will be ready for presidential elections by October 2008. In a statement published widely in the press, Mambe argued that given that the audiences foraines are scheduled to begin September 25, elections should be possible by October 2008. Mambe has always asserted that it would take 10-12 months to complete the identification and voter registration processes once the audiences foraines are underway (reftel D). Given Prime Minister Soro's September 12 announcement that the audiences foraines will begin September 25, Mambe contends that elections by October 2008 are reasonable. To date there has been no official comment from either the President or the Prime Minister. In a meeting with Emboffs September 18, the Prime Minister's Deputy Cabinet Director Paul Koffi KOFFI was circumspect in discussing the potential date for elections saying "It's the law that fixes the date." ¶3. (C) In a September 19 meeting with the Charge, Mambe claimed that the press reports misrepresented his comments. He explained that he believes elections are possible by October 2008, not before then, and not necessarily in the month of October 2008. In describing the challenges to holding elections in Cote d'Ivoire by October 2008, Mambe noted that the audiences foraines process is still a contentious issue in terms of the length of time necessary to complete the process and the number of people who need to receive birth certificates. The opposition political parties believe that 3.5 million people need birth certificates. This number is based on the National Institute of Statistics (INS) estimated 3.8% annual population growth rate of the country over the last 7 years. Mambe noted that there are some political actors (namely the pro-Gbagbo camp) who assert that only 200,000 to 300,000 people need to receive birth certificates in order to register on the electoral rolls. According to Mambe, this lingering debate about the numbers has led to a lack of consensus on when to start the audiences foraines and how much time is needed to register people. ¶4. (C) Mambe also identified security as a major challenge for the audiences foraines and subsequently identification and elections. Mambe noted that the Integrated Command Center has responsibility for providing security for the audiences foraines as well as the identification and elections processes. Mambe alluded to lack of coordination and preparedness of the ICC and noted that if people believe that the audiences foraines are not safe, then it will be very difficult to hold elections. (There is still concern that there are a lot of arms circulating in the West of the country.) Audiences Foraines to Begin Incrementally ********************************************* ** ¶5. (C) Ministry of Justice Director for the Audiences Foraines Process Perrine Nahounou told Emboffs September 20 that there are still many kinks to be worked out and that only 25 of the 111 tribunals will begin on September 25. In a roundtable discussion, a group of judges and lawyers told Emboffs September 20 that it will be impossible to complete ABIDJAN 00000995 002.2 OF 002 the work of the audiences foraines in three months if there are indeed 3.5 million people in need of birth certificates. Magistrate Ehounou Manlan, who was part of a audiences foraines tribunal in January-March 2007, told Emboffs that the audiences foraines is a inherently slow process and that it will be a "catastrophe" for judges to have to decide three million cases. He emphasized that the audiences foraines will create a backlog in the normal judicial system if almost all of the country's active judges work solely for the audiences foraines. International Observers Skeptical About Audiences Foraines and Elections ********************************************* ** ¶6. (C) While the audiences foraines began as scheduled on September 25, international observers are largely pessimistic about the process and the prospects of elections being held by October 2008. In a September 18 luncheon roundtable, European Union Charge Vincent Dowd told Charge that elections would not be possible before 2009 or even 2010. European Union Political Chief Gianmarco Scuppa told Poloff September 18 that the audiences foraines are so poorly organized, he doubts that they will be able to begin on the 25th. Scuppa told Poloff that he does not believe elections can take place before March 2009 from a technical point of view. Scuppa also noted that despite having already committed 8 billion FCFA (approximately 17.2 million USD) to the audiences foraines and identification processes, the European Union is questioning whether or not it is better to hold off on holding elections and ensure that identification is done right or if elections should be done quickly with identification completed after elections. In a meeting with Emboffs September 19, United Nations Operation in Cote d'Ivoire (UNOCI) Electoral Division Chief Ahmedou Becaye Seck underlined that the audiences foraines are a critical key to the elections process because they ensure that people have access to nationality papers, thus allowing them to register to vote and move freely throughout the country. ¶7. (C) Comment: The audiences foraines began as scheduled on September 25 in four cities, including one in the North (Ferkessedougou, Soro's hometown) and one in the South (Gagnoa, Gbagbo's hometown). Soro is very committed to the audiences foraines process as he has more to lose if the process is not complete. At a lunch that he hosted for a few key donors, including Charge, he remarked for the first time publicly that the audiences foraines timetable could be prolonged if they do not finish their work in the three-month timeframe, which appears increasingly likely. End Comment. AKUETTEH