COTE D'IVOIRE: UDPCI SECGEN FORECASTS VIOLENCE IF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 000906 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W-PDAVIS AND INR/AA-BGRAVES, PARIS AND LONDON FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/2017 TAGS: PGOV IV SUBJECT: COTE D'IVOIRE: UDPCI SECGEN FORECASTS VIOLENCE IF OPA NOT IMPLEMENTED Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES CYNTHIA AKUETTEH FOR REASONS 1.4 (B,D) . ¶1. (C) Summary. Alassane Salif N'Diaye, Secretary General of the opposition political party Union for Democracy and Peace in Cote d'Ivoire (Union Pour la Democratie et pour la Paix en Cote d'Ivoire - UDPCI),told Poloffs August 24 that the UDPCI supports the Ouagadougou Political Accord (OPA),but is concerned that it will not be implemented and the country will return to war. N'Diaye said UDPCI leadership met with the Independent Electoral Commission August 23 and that the Commission believes elections are not possible, even under the best circumstances, before 10 to 12 months. N'Diaye stated that, if elections are not held and President Gbagbo remains in office, the political opposition will have to react. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) Alassane Salif N'Diaye, Secretary General of the UDPCI told Poloffs August 24 that UDPCI is a "liberal" party that believes in free enterprise and open markets. N'Diaye said the UDPCI supports all methods to achieve peace in Cote d'Ivoire and supports the OPA. He noted that the UDPCI has participated in all peace agreements. (Comment: UDPCI was founded by the late Brigadier General Robert Guei, who declared himself President in December 1999 after a bloodless coup d'etat. UDPCI, a smaller party whose strength is found in western Cote d'Ivoire among the Guere ethnic group, is a member of the Assembly of Houphouetistes for Democracy and Peace (Rassemblement des Houphouetistes pour la Democratie et la Paix - RHDP),an umbrella group of unarmed opposition parties. End Comment.) ¶3. (C) N'Diaye stated that the OPA calls for "free, open, transparent, and credible" elections and that the UDPCI supports this. N'Diaye said that, in order to have such elections, the following events first need to occur: 1) the "audiences foraines" that will issue replacement birth certificates need to carry out their work, 2) the civil administration needs to be redeployed in the north and west of the country, 3) the military Integrated Command Center (Centre de Commandement Integre - CCI) needs to be functional, and 4) the militia need to be disarmed. N'Diaye told Poloffs that UDPCI leadership met with the Independent Electoral Commission August 23 and that the Commission said that, even if the "audiences foraines" began the next day, elections could not be held before 10 or 12 months. N'Diaye stated that if elections are postponed indefinitely, President Gbagbo remains in office, and the opposition will have to "react" if faced with such a situation. ¶4. (C) N'Diaye said the OPA gave great hope for peace and that all opposition parties support its implementation. He expressed concern, however, that it will not be implemented and that, like all the other peace agreements on Cote d'Ivoire, will fail to resolve the country's crisis. N'Diaye described the OPA as the "last solution" for Cote d'Ivoire and warned that, if it is not implemented, Ivorians will "kill each other." ¶5. (C) N'Diaye complained that the government has failed to demobilize the militia and said UDPCI supporters in the west of the country are afraid due to the presence of the militia in that area. He noted that the west is the only region where Prefects and sub Prefects are members of the military. According to N'Diaye, the militia are present in the country's universities. N'Diaye said that arms circulate freely in Cote d'Ivoire and the government supports this traffic. ¶6. (C) N'Diaye said Ivorians must resolve the country's crisis, but called for assistance from the international community. He complained that the investigation into the alleged murder of UDPCI founder General Guei has not yielded any results. N'Diaye charged that political assassination is common place in Cote d'Ivoire and is used "by some to remain in power." ¶7. (C) Comment. UDPCI is a signatory to the Linas-Marcoussis peace agreement. The party has to cope with its legacy of being founded by General Guei, whose suspension of the presidential vote in 2000, led to violence and Gbagbo's taking office. UDPCI has only two ministers in the government, Minister of Transportation Tokusse Mabri and Minister of National Education Gilbert Bleu-Laine, who is a vocal dissenter of the UDPCI and who has all but completely defected to the Front Populaire Ivoirien (FPI),President ABIDJAN 00000906 002 OF 002 Gbagbo's party. While N'Diaye's statement that Ivorians will again take up arms if the OPA is not implemented may be extreme, it could reflect the feelings of the UDPCI's constituency , which is mostly found in the volatile west of the country. It is clear that the opposition political class wants to start to see progress on the OPA once the summer is over and the government returns to work. N'Diaye is correct that the militias have not been disarmed and this is an impediment to disarmament. AKUETTEH