C O N F I D E N T I A L ABIDJAN 000489

SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (ADDING PARA MARKING)

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/10/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL UN IV
SUBJECT: SORO-GBAGBO ALLIANCE UNHINGES THE OPPOSITION,
ENDS G7 MARRIAGE OF CONVENIENCE

REF: ABIDJAN 475

Classified By: Poloff Laura Taylor-Kale, Reasons 1.4 (b & d)


1. (C) Summary: Opposition RHDP parties, particularly the
PDCI and RDR, led by former President Bedie and Alassane
Ouattara respectively, have been widely critical in recent
weeks of key New Forces leaders and by extension the Soro
Prime Ministership. While the increasing rancor illustrates
the opposition's real fears of being sidelined in the
Ouagadougou Peace Accord (OPA) process, Bedie and Ouattara's
very public attack on the New Forces also reflects internal
party problems and lack of leadership and vision,
particularly within the PDCI. President Gbagbo has remained
silent and disengaged from this squabbling, watching from the
sidelines as the G7 alliance (opposition RHDP and New Forces)
self-destructs. End Summary.


2. (C) The PDCI and RDR have criticized key New Forces
leaders (Sidiki Konate and Alain Lobognon, principally) over
publicly expressed fears that elections will not come to pass
in the 10 months outlined in the Ouaga accord, that
identification will not genuinely address the needs of the up
to 3.5 million unregistered Ivoirian citizens, and that
President has coopted Soro into his scheme to weaken the role
of or altogether eliminate the High Representative for
Elections. Unstated is the fact that much of the RHDP's
unhappiness stems from having been sidelined in the Ouaga
process, where the President managed to split the G7 alliance
between the opposition parties and the New Forces in
achieving direct, successful negotiations with Soro alone.
However, their public row with the New Forces is only a
symptom of the deeper internal problems in the RHDP. The
RHDP itself is struggling to tread water while the lead
party, the PDCI, cleaves (septel).


3. (C) Former President Bedie's weak leadership skills,
authoritarian style and refusal to bow graciously from the
spotlight contributes to the PDCI's slow unraveling.
Meanwhile, Ouattara's RDR party is quick to show the media
and international actors that they remain aligned closely
with the New Forces, despite the public rancor. Poloff met
recently with a senior RDR official who took pains to
emphasize that the RDR is still in the game and works closely
with PM Soro. However, the RDR, too, has important
leadership weaknesses (septel). These internal problems
leave the alliance's leaders insecure and vulnerable to
abandonment by the New Forces, the only political movement
apparently capable of standing toe to toe with President
Gbagbo. Thus, signs of that feared abandonment have prompted
the vociferous, but probably self-damaging, public attacks.
In a sign of how fearful the opposition is, a senior RDR
official told Poloff that, while they are trying to stay the
course with the New Forces, if the HRE is eliminated, the RDR
will denounce the OPA and perhaps go so far as to withdraw
its ministers from the government.


4. (C) The FPI, for its part, is quietly enjoying the
discomfiture of the RHDP and dissolution of the G7. In
conversations with Emboffs, Navigue Konate, the president of
the FPI youth wing and number two on President Gbagbo's
negotiating team in Ouagadougu, dismissed the political
opposition as ineffectve. "All they do is complain. When
we were in he opposition, we constantly rallied and engaged
and offered solutions." President Gbagbo, a skilld
tactician, remains silent while the bickering mong the G7
allies continues, further bringing him closer to his
objective of splitting the political opposition from the New
Forces.


5. (C) Comment: While the G7 marriage appears over, both
parties seem to have rashly discarded some of the advantages
in "staying together for the kids." The New Forces/PM don't
have the skilled technocrats needed to contest Gbagbo and the
FPI for real control over the government's resources (indeed,
the New Force's two most capable technocrats were recently
sanctioned by Soro himself for engaging in fisticuffs at the
Golf Hotel). For its part, the RHDP needs Soro's support,
tacit or otherwise, to have a legitimate shot at defeating
Gbagbo in the Presidential election.

Comment Continued: It will take real political skill to
repair the damage done in the last few weeks to bridge the
divide within the G7. Despite expressing reasonable concerns
about the peace process and the role of ONUCI and the HRE in
particular, the RHDP leadership seem bent on a
confrontational rather than constructive approach. For their
part, the NF are to be enjoying their new strengths and
position and so far appear disinclined to compromise with
their erstwhile allies. End Comment.



Valle