SORO-GBAGBO ALLIANCE UNHINGES THE OPPOSITION,

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABIDJAN 000489 SIPDIS C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (ADDING PARA MARKING) SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/10/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL UN IV SUBJECT: SORO-GBAGBO ALLIANCE UNHINGES THE OPPOSITION, ENDS G7 MARRIAGE OF CONVENIENCE REF: ABIDJAN 475 Classified By: Poloff Laura Taylor-Kale, Reasons 1.4 (b & d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Opposition RHDP parties, particularly the PDCI and RDR, led by former President Bedie and Alassane Ouattara respectively, have been widely critical in recent weeks of key New Forces leaders and by extension the Soro Prime Ministership. While the increasing rancor illustrates the opposition's real fears of being sidelined in the Ouagadougou Peace Accord (OPA) process, Bedie and Ouattara's very public attack on the New Forces also reflects internal party problems and lack of leadership and vision, particularly within the PDCI. President Gbagbo has remained silent and disengaged from this squabbling, watching from the sidelines as the G7 alliance (opposition RHDP and New Forces) self-destructs. End Summary. ¶2. (C) The PDCI and RDR have criticized key New Forces leaders (Sidiki Konate and Alain Lobognon, principally) over publicly expressed fears that elections will not come to pass in the 10 months outlined in the Ouaga accord, that identification will not genuinely address the needs of the up to 3.5 million unregistered Ivoirian citizens, and that President has coopted Soro into his scheme to weaken the role of or altogether eliminate the High Representative for Elections. Unstated is the fact that much of the RHDP's unhappiness stems from having been sidelined in the Ouaga process, where the President managed to split the G7 alliance between the opposition parties and the New Forces in achieving direct, successful negotiations with Soro alone. However, their public row with the New Forces is only a symptom of the deeper internal problems in the RHDP. The RHDP itself is struggling to tread water while the lead party, the PDCI, cleaves (septel). ¶3. (C) Former President Bedie's weak leadership skills, authoritarian style and refusal to bow graciously from the spotlight contributes to the PDCI's slow unraveling. Meanwhile, Ouattara's RDR party is quick to show the media and international actors that they remain aligned closely with the New Forces, despite the public rancor. Poloff met recently with a senior RDR official who took pains to emphasize that the RDR is still in the game and works closely with PM Soro. However, the RDR, too, has important leadership weaknesses (septel). These internal problems leave the alliance's leaders insecure and vulnerable to abandonment by the New Forces, the only political movement apparently capable of standing toe to toe with President Gbagbo. Thus, signs of that feared abandonment have prompted the vociferous, but probably self-damaging, public attacks. In a sign of how fearful the opposition is, a senior RDR official told Poloff that, while they are trying to stay the course with the New Forces, if the HRE is eliminated, the RDR will denounce the OPA and perhaps go so far as to withdraw its ministers from the government. ¶4. (C) The FPI, for its part, is quietly enjoying the discomfiture of the RHDP and dissolution of the G7. In conversations with Emboffs, Navigue Konate, the president of the FPI youth wing and number two on President Gbagbo's negotiating team in Ouagadougu, dismissed the political opposition as ineffectve. "All they do is complain. When we were in he opposition, we constantly rallied and engaged and offered solutions." President Gbagbo, a skilld tactician, remains silent while the bickering mong the G7 allies continues, further bringing him closer to his objective of splitting the political opposition from the New Forces. ¶5. (C) Comment: While the G7 marriage appears over, both parties seem to have rashly discarded some of the advantages in "staying together for the kids." The New Forces/PM don't have the skilled technocrats needed to contest Gbagbo and the FPI for real control over the government's resources (indeed, the New Force's two most capable technocrats were recently sanctioned by Soro himself for engaging in fisticuffs at the Golf Hotel). For its part, the RHDP needs Soro's support, tacit or otherwise, to have a legitimate shot at defeating Gbagbo in the Presidential election. Comment Continued: It will take real political skill to repair the damage done in the last few weeks to bridge the divide within the G7. Despite expressing reasonable concerns about the peace process and the role of ONUCI and the HRE in particular, the RHDP leadership seem bent on a confrontational rather than constructive approach. For their part, the NF are to be enjoying their new strengths and position and so far appear disinclined to compromise with their erstwhile allies. End Comment. Valle