PEACE ACCORD IN OUAGADOUGOU - OBSERVERS, POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 000242 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON IV SUBJECT: PEACE ACCORD IN OUAGADOUGOU - OBSERVERS, POLITICAL CLASS CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC REF: A. OUAGADOUGOU 186 ¶B. ABIDJAN 226 Classified By: EconChief EMassinga Reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) Confounding the expectations of many, (reftel b), President Compaore brokered an ambitious peace accord over the evening of Saturday, March 3rd. Signed by both President Gbagbo and Forces Nouvelles leader Soro in Ouaga, the agreement is both detailed and vague: attempting to overcome the hurdles of the many past agreements, Ouaga (or Ouaga I as some more skeptical observers have named it) attempts to spell out in comprehensive detail how difficult questions such as identification, voter registration and the phasing out of the Zone of Confidence will be carried out. At the same time, the accord is silent on the future of Prime Minister Banny, exceptionally vague on the structure and leadership of a transitional government that will carry the country through the roughly ten months until envisioned elections, and breathtakingly ambitious on the timeline and questions, such as identification and voter registration, where a window of three months is blocked out for the several million (perhaps as many as 3.5) unregistered Ivorian citizens. More analysis will follow as Post gauges the reactions of the political class and other relevant parties in the conflict, but this agreement does represent substantial compromise on both sides, which has pleased (and relieved) many. ¶2. (C) The agreement describes how identification, elections, the security forces, restoration of civil authority, the end of the Zone of Confidence and international observation will work. One of the central planks, section I's three-month audience foraine process represents a compromise made by both sides. The brevity of the process means that only a fraction (realistically less than 1/2, perhaps l/3) of eligible citizens will be registered during the allotted time. However, Gbagbo gave substantial ground on the form of the audience foraine/identification/voter registration question: new registrants will simultaneously obtain a supplemental birth certificate and official recognition of citizenship through the audience foraine process, skipping the nationality determination in the courts for which the President's camp had fought so long. Newly registered citizens would be added by the Independent Electoral Commission (whose control is not addressed by the Accord) to an updated 2000 elections list. Section III creates a Central Integrated Command headed by one military chief each from the FANCI and FAFN, and staffed by equal numbers of officers from each group. DDR is supposed to proceed two weeks from the formation of a new transitional government, along with the dismantling of the militias. The accord asks for the arms embargo to be lifted to allow the new military structure to maintain order in the Zone of Confidence, which would be phased out through gradual removal of impartial forces control. Intriguingly, the Ouaga Agreement calls for additional African troops to bolster the impartial forces, possibly opening the door for an early exit of French Licorne troops. The timeline adopted gives all of these elements 10 months. ¶3. (C) In a March 3 evening meeting between Soro and Ambassador Hooks, Soro said he is very cautiously optimistic. Soro said that he would accept the Prime Ministership - if he could be guaranteed all the powers necessary to carry out the accord, most notably control of the audience foraine/identification and voter registration machinery, the new joint military command structure, the state's fiscal resources and the authority to name senior officials, among others. The accord calls for the formation of a new transitional government within five weeks of its signature: meeting, or even coming close to this first deadline will be the first real test of the durability of this agreement. ¶4. (C) EmbOff attended a March 5th luncheon planned before the Ouaga Accord's weekend signature, which was hosted by IMF Country Director James Bond and attended by UNSYG Acting Representative Abou Moussa, French Ambassador Janier, EU Country Representative Michel Arrion, the Canadian and Chinese Ambassadors, and senior representatives from the World Food Program, UNDP and other key international agencies. The international community was cautiously optimistic, and looked forward to being able to restart multilateral lending (septel),aid reintegration of administrative cadres and assisting in the conduct of elections. French Ambassador Janier was notably silent on the question of Licorne's future, given French Cooperation Minister (and Minister with the Ivorian dossier) Brigitte Girardin's widely reported comments that "a withdrawal of the international community can be contemplated now." Abou Moussa acknowledged the agreement was flawed in its silence over the transitional government, Banny's future and the ABIDJAN 00000242 002 OF 002 precise mechanism of international engagement (IWG and/or the new structure mentioned in the Ouaga Accord) and said ONUCI would point out such weaknesses and possibly make suggestions as the agreement is presented for ratification first to the AU and later the UNSC (probably during the already-planned March 12 meeting). There were no obvious donors willing to pledge to contribute to the $100 million identification program or new development assistance packages to reverse the impoverishment, particularly in the North, caused by the 4 year-long separation of the country. On new elections funding, Arrion said flatly the EU was tapped out. IMF and World Bank officials appeared eager to turn the Ouaga Accord into a vehicle for a rapid reengagement (septel). ¶5. (C) Comment. The Ouagadougou Accord represents significant progress. Ivorian political leaders appear to have taken greater ownership of the crisis and realized real compromise is necessary to break the stalemate. However, the significant details that remain to be defined are daunting, and the very tight timeline can create unrealizable high expectations that could provoke discord down the road. End Comment. Hooks