DIRECT DIALOGUE WRESTLING WITH IDENTIFICATION ISSUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABIDJAN 000162

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL UN ASEC IV
SUBJECT: DIRECT DIALOGUE WRESTLING WITH IDENTIFICATION ISSUE

REF: ABIDJAN 141

Classified By: PolOff Laura Taylor-Kale, Reasons 1.4 (b & d)


1. (U) SUMMARY: Following last week's widely publicized kick
off of direct talks between the President's representatives
and their New Forces (FN) counterparts, this week the cracks
are beginning to surface as the talks wrestle with the issue
of identification. Although there have been some press
reports that agreement was actually reached on
identification, there have been no details about the terms of
any such agreement. UN High Representative for Elections
Gerard Stoudemann told the Ambassador that the Gbagbo camp is
apparently insisting that the Gbagbo-controlled National
Institute of Statistics oversee both identification and voter
registration. While President Compaore is garnering praise
from all sides, including President Gbagbo, the opposition is
increasingly vocalizing pessimism that the direct dialogue
will succeed, and is dismissing the President's
representatives as weak negotiators. Gbagbo and FN leader
Soro still have not met face-to-face -- this much-anticipated
meeting has been postponed another week. At the same time,
Gbagbo said on February 13 that the direct dialogue would end
the following day. Stoudemann told the Ambassador that Soro
will not accept the premiership if Gbagbo proposes it. While
there is still opportunity to salvage the talks, the
opposition fears that President Gbagbo may want the talks to
fail to give him a free hand to find his own solution. All
political actors are on stand-by waiting to see what happens
in Ouagadougou this week. Prime Minister Banny has been
notably silent and maintains a low profile. END SUMMARY


2. (C) Ambassador met with UN High Representative for
Elections Gerard Stoudemann after he returned from
Ouagadougou last week. Stoudemann noted that Compaore is
very cautiously optimistic that the two sides will reach an
agreement. However, identification remains the fundamental
concern for the FN and the political opposition, and they
remain adamant that this a prerequisite for elections.
According to Stoudemann, Gbagbo's team has proposed to the
mediator (but not to the FN) that voter registration be
combined with identification and that the Gbagbo-controlled
National Institute of Statistics be in charge of the process;
Stoudemann is dubious about this proposal and is sure the FN
would reject it. Soro told Stoudemann in Ouagadougou that he
is not interested in becoming Prime Minister but that he is
mulling over a presidential council (yet to be defined) that
would share power among the opposition political parties, the
NF and the FPI. The two sides are reportedly also discussing
a modified disarmament proposal tabled by Compaore (reftel).


3. (C) The presidency is noticeably more optimistic about the
direct talks. Ambassador Sarata Ottro-Toure, the President's
foreign policy advisor, told Poloff that there is good will
on both sides and President Gbagbo is positive that the talks
will lead to an agreement. The FN are more cautious and
their comments in the media more measured. It is unclear
whether the President's representatives have a genuinely
realistic, flexible negotiating position particularly on the
identification issue. Adama Toungara, mayor of the Abidjan
suburb of Abobo and key advisor to opposition RDR (Rally of
Republicans) party leader Alassane Ouattara, told Poloff
February 12 that the lack of balance between the two
negotiating teams will make compromise difficult. He said
Louis Andre Dacoury Tabley, the leader of the FN delegation,
is a tough, experienced negotiator and skilled politician
whereas the President's delegation is led by Presidential
press spokesman Desire Tagro, who is seen by the opposition
as relatively weak and inexperienced. Prime Minister Banny
has kept a low profile in the last few weeks and it is widely
assumed that he is essentially finished in the current
political process. However, he has reportedly sent a
delegation of his own advisors to Ouagadougou to keep an eye
on the negotiations.


4. (C) COMMENT: The future of the dialogue is unclear despite
high hopes, including in the international community. It has
produced little as of yet. It remains to be seen if Gbagbo
is simply engaged in a charm offensive with no substance and
only aimed at dividing the FN from the political opposition,
or if he is genuinely ready to compromise on the
identification issue. We suspect that Gbagbo still hopes to
avoid a thorough identification process since most
undocumented Ivorians would likely vote against him in an
election. For the FN, identification remains essential; the
FN will almost certainly reject the idea of merging
identification and voter registration under the
Gbagbo-controlled INS. END COMMENT
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