DIRECT DIALOGUE WRESTLING WITH IDENTIFICATION ISSUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABIDJAN 000162 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL UN ASEC IV SUBJECT: DIRECT DIALOGUE WRESTLING WITH IDENTIFICATION ISSUE REF: ABIDJAN 141 Classified By: PolOff Laura Taylor-Kale, Reasons 1.4 (b & d) ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: Following last week's widely publicized kick off of direct talks between the President's representatives and their New Forces (FN) counterparts, this week the cracks are beginning to surface as the talks wrestle with the issue of identification. Although there have been some press reports that agreement was actually reached on identification, there have been no details about the terms of any such agreement. UN High Representative for Elections Gerard Stoudemann told the Ambassador that the Gbagbo camp is apparently insisting that the Gbagbo-controlled National Institute of Statistics oversee both identification and voter registration. While President Compaore is garnering praise from all sides, including President Gbagbo, the opposition is increasingly vocalizing pessimism that the direct dialogue will succeed, and is dismissing the President's representatives as weak negotiators. Gbagbo and FN leader Soro still have not met face-to-face -- this much-anticipated meeting has been postponed another week. At the same time, Gbagbo said on February 13 that the direct dialogue would end the following day. Stoudemann told the Ambassador that Soro will not accept the premiership if Gbagbo proposes it. While there is still opportunity to salvage the talks, the opposition fears that President Gbagbo may want the talks to fail to give him a free hand to find his own solution. All political actors are on stand-by waiting to see what happens in Ouagadougou this week. Prime Minister Banny has been notably silent and maintains a low profile. END SUMMARY ¶2. (C) Ambassador met with UN High Representative for Elections Gerard Stoudemann after he returned from Ouagadougou last week. Stoudemann noted that Compaore is very cautiously optimistic that the two sides will reach an agreement. However, identification remains the fundamental concern for the FN and the political opposition, and they remain adamant that this a prerequisite for elections. According to Stoudemann, Gbagbo's team has proposed to the mediator (but not to the FN) that voter registration be combined with identification and that the Gbagbo-controlled National Institute of Statistics be in charge of the process; Stoudemann is dubious about this proposal and is sure the FN would reject it. Soro told Stoudemann in Ouagadougou that he is not interested in becoming Prime Minister but that he is mulling over a presidential council (yet to be defined) that would share power among the opposition political parties, the NF and the FPI. The two sides are reportedly also discussing a modified disarmament proposal tabled by Compaore (reftel). ¶3. (C) The presidency is noticeably more optimistic about the direct talks. Ambassador Sarata Ottro-Toure, the President's foreign policy advisor, told Poloff that there is good will on both sides and President Gbagbo is positive that the talks will lead to an agreement. The FN are more cautious and their comments in the media more measured. It is unclear whether the President's representatives have a genuinely realistic, flexible negotiating position particularly on the identification issue. Adama Toungara, mayor of the Abidjan suburb of Abobo and key advisor to opposition RDR (Rally of Republicans) party leader Alassane Ouattara, told Poloff February 12 that the lack of balance between the two negotiating teams will make compromise difficult. He said Louis Andre Dacoury Tabley, the leader of the FN delegation, is a tough, experienced negotiator and skilled politician whereas the President's delegation is led by Presidential press spokesman Desire Tagro, who is seen by the opposition as relatively weak and inexperienced. Prime Minister Banny has kept a low profile in the last few weeks and it is widely assumed that he is essentially finished in the current political process. However, he has reportedly sent a delegation of his own advisors to Ouagadougou to keep an eye on the negotiations. ¶4. (C) COMMENT: The future of the dialogue is unclear despite high hopes, including in the international community. It has produced little as of yet. It remains to be seen if Gbagbo is simply engaged in a charm offensive with no substance and only aimed at dividing the FN from the political opposition, or if he is genuinely ready to compromise on the identification issue. We suspect that Gbagbo still hopes to avoid a thorough identification process since most undocumented Ivorians would likely vote against him in an election. For the FN, identification remains essential; the FN will almost certainly reject the idea of merging identification and voter registration under the Gbagbo-controlled INS. END COMMENT Hooks