OPPOSITION LEADER OUATTARA STILL DOUBTS GBAGBO'S COMMITMENT TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 001245 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID IV SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADER OUATTARA STILL DOUBTS GBAGBO'S COMMITMENT TO ELECTIONS;SEES POTENTIAL FOR UNREST Classified By: POLCOUNS S. EIRIZ FOR REASONS 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary: In a December 20, conversation with Ambassador, RDR par leader Ouattara expressed concern about ongoing delays in the deploymen audiences foraines teams, the lack of precision about the identificatio process and the role of technical operator SAGEM. The RDR will be prepa a presidential election in June 2008, but Ouattara doubted that Gbagbo live up to this commitment. Ouattara was worried about the potential fo should elections be postponed yet again. Ouattara had just returned fro to Ouagadougou where he said he pressed OPA Facilitator Compaore to giv d'Ivoire's political parties a more prominent role in OPA negotiations. previous meetings, Ouattara called on the international community to as that Gbagbo's lives up to his promises. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Ambassador Nesbitt and PolCouns called on Rally of Republicans (Rassemblement des Republicains - RDR) leader and former Prime Minister Alassane Dramane Ouattara on December 20 to discuss the Ouagadougou Pol Agreement (OPA). Ambassador commented on the marked drop in public dis about the audiences foraines process (tribunals that will issue birth certificates to persons whose births were never registered),and politi parties' apparent shift of focus to elections. She also told Ouattara U.S. message to the government has been and will continue to be that el are necessary but they must be transparent. Identification -------------- ¶3. (C) Ouattara said the RDR remains very concerned about delays in the audiences foraines process, noting that 30 additional teams the Ministr Justice promised December 11, to deploy soon were still not in the fiel the audiences foraines process is the first step in the identification for those who have no birth certificate, the lack of progress is especi disappointing. Ouattara calculated that Cote d'Ivoire's electoral list probably comprise about 8.5 million people (approximately 50% of the population, not counting a couple of million foreigners). He estimated there are probably 2 million Ivorians who have some documentation but w old enough or didn't qualify to vote in 2000 and are not on the 2000 el list. (Ouattara said that the voting age was lowered from 21 to 18 in 2000; many young people were not able to register in time to be on the Another 1 million probably have no documents at all. Ouattara's concer whether there would be sufficient time between now and June 2008, for S document all potential voters given that a decree specifying SAGEM's ro not yet been issued. Ouattara said a decree laying out SAGEM's duties i currently being drafted and that the Prime Minister hopes to reach cons with all the political parties regarding SAGEM's role before the decree issued. Ouattara stressed that the identification process cannot begin until SAGEM's role is agreed upon. Elections -------------- ¶4. (C) Ouattara told the Ambassador that the RDR will be ready for elec June 2008 and will accept the outcome of a fair contest. Outtara doubte however, that President Gbagbo would ultimately allow an election to ta place; Ouattara said Gbagbo knows he cannot win a transparent vote. Ou said that Gbagbo refused to hold elections one year ago despite Ouattar having told him that the RDR would accept him as President if he won in and fair elections. The Ambassador pointed out that many observers bel situation has changed and that Gbagbo now calculates that he can, indee fair election. In response, Ouattara described Gbgbo as an actor and manipulator, but reiterated that he will recognize a Gbagbo victory as elections are transparent. Ambassador noted that Gbagbo had met jus previous day with the Independent Electoral Commission and wondered if significant. Ouattara said that his information indicated that Commiss members had avoided any substantive discussion of electoral modalities Gbagbo in order to ensure their independence. Possibility of Unrest -------------- ¶5. (C) Ouattara said he was concerned that there could be unrest in the months if Ivorians fail to see progress on implementation of the OPA an economic situation declines. He said that if it became clear that Gbag not intend to hold elections, he could envision the armed forces losing patience with the political leaders ability to manage the situation and resorting to a coup d'etat to bring the country to elections. Role of International Community -------------- ¶6. (C) Throughout the conversation Ouattara called on the international community to exert more pressure on Gbagbo, perhaps even adopting sanct ensure that he implements the OPA. Ouattara said Prime Minister Soro h will but ultimately not the power to move the process forward; Gbagbo h power and creates obstacles to block progress when he chooses. Ouattar the Ambassador that he has asked OPA Facilitator President Blaise Compa Burkina Faso to give the opposition political parties a more active rol implementation. Ouattara said he argued that excluding the political p was acceptable when the OPA's primary focus was reunifying the country ABIDJAN 00001245 002 OF 002 addressing the existence of two competing armies. But the OPA had beco predominantly political question and the major political parties should the negotiating table. According to Ouattara, Compaore agreed that the Consultation Framework, which includes Ouattara and Democratic Party of d'Ivoire (Parti Democratique de la Cote d'Ivoire -PDCI) leader and form President Henri Konan Bedie, will meet more frequently. The next meetin occur on January 24. ¶7. (C) Comment: Ouattara's comments to the Ambassador echoed his Novem conversation with Deputy Secretary of State Negroponte. Emboffs were su at the degree to which his comments and presentation did not appear to into account recent developments. His longstanding view of Gbagbo as a untrustworthy opponent clearly colors his view of the President's actio is true that the OPA sidelined the opposition, but Ouattara has also fa use his position opposition leader to push the audiences foraines and identification issues more forcefully. Instead, he seems to be countin Compaore to give him a larger role in the negotiation process. NESBITT