OPA LIMPING ALONG

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABIDJAN 001080

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W-EPLUMB AND INR/AA-BGRAVES, LONDON AND PARIS
FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2017
TAGS: MARR PGOV IV
SUBJECT: OPA LIMPING ALONG


Classified By: POL/ECON CHIEF SILVIA EIRIZ FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Summary. United Nations Operation in Cote d'Ivoire
(UNOCI) officials told TDY State/INR analyst and Pol/Econ
Chief that, while Ivorians support the Ouagadougou Political
Accord (OPA),their optimism could wane if they do not begin
to see concrete steps on its implementation. However, there
are signs of progress. The former Zone of Confidence is
calm. The Minister of Interior has ordered all Prefects and
sub Prefects to return to their posts in the territory
controlled by the Forces Nouvelles (FN) and the FN have
evicted squatters from all government offices and residences.
The Integrated Command Center (ICC) is up but not running
well as it lacks staff, vehicles, and equipment. Ivorians
are convinced that disarmament and reinsertion of former
combatants must be linked while the international community
is divided on whether to accept such an approach in place of
the classic disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration
(DDR) model. High unemployment among youth, including
members of the pro-government militias in the west, is a
challenge that cannot be ignored. End Summary.


2. (U) State/INR/AA analyst Bernadette Graves visited Cote
d'Ivoire October 7-15 and, accompanied by Pol/Econ Chief,
held meetings with Ivorian and international community
officials in Abidjan, Bouake, Yamoussoukro, Daloa, Duekoue,
Guiglo, and Gagnoa to assess implementation of the
Ouagadougou Political Accord (OPA).

Optimism on OPA, But Concrete Steps Needed
--------------


3. (SBU) UNOCI Bouake Office Chief Fode Camara told Emboffs
October 10 that, while there has been no concrete
implementation on the ground of the OPA, there is widespread
sense of support for it. UNOCI Yamoussoukro office Poloff
James Aji told Emboffs October 11 that Ivorians' optimism
regarding the OPA could wane if its implementation is delayed
too long. Bouake Deputy Mayor Boubakar Sidiki Toure told
Emboffs October 10 that, while there is skepticism about OPA
implementation, there is also fatigue from the crisis and a
genuine will among northerners for the country to reunite.
He added that if a proper identification process is not held,
the north could envision itself as a separate country even if
the south could not accept this. Toure noted that acceptance
by the FN of FPI (Front Populaire Ivoirien) and PDCI (Parti
Democratique de la Cote d'Ivoire) political party conferences
in the north indicates support for the peace process.


4. (C) Chief of FN Armed Forces General Soumaila Bakayoko
told Emboffs October 10 that the former Zone of Confidence is
calmer now and that Ivorian troops have been more effective
than international ones in halting the traffic of arms.
UNOCI Bouake Political Officer confirmed in a separate
meeting October 10 that there has been no fighting in the
former Zone of Confidence. French Defense Attache Colonel
Marc Messana told Emboffs October 8 that murders in the Zone
of Confidence ended when it was dismantled. (Note: Messana
also offered the somewhat farfetched speculation that the
murders in the Zone of Confidence were actually orchestrated
to show that Licorne and the UN could not control the area.
End Note.)

Return of Government Bureaucrats
--------------


5. (SBU) FN Cabinet Director Bamba Sinima and General
Bakayoko told Emboffs October 10 that the FN have evicted
squatters from all government offices and residences in FN
territory. National Board for Civil Service Redeployment
Executive Secretary Eben-Ezer Guebo Dja confirmed this on
October 15 and told Emboffs that the Minister of Interior has
ordered all Prefects and sub-Prefects to return to their
posts and that they were all provided funds and materials by
October 12 to allow them to do so. Sinima and Bakayoko
acknowledged that many of the vacated government buildings
need to be rehabilitated and explained that the FN have
identified other buildings that the Prefects and sub-Prefects
can utilize if the official buildings are not habitable.

ICC
---


6. (SBU) Emboffs visited the Integrated Command Center (ICC)
in Yamoussoukro, which includes a Licorne officer and a UNOCI
officer. According to the ICC, it is composed of 7 cells

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(human resources, operations, logistics, planning/DDR,
reorganization, communications, and civil-military),6 mixed
brigades of gendarmes, and 3 mixed military units. The mixed
gendarme brigades are stationed in Zeale and Bangolo in the
west, Ngattadolikno and Bonoufal in the center, and Kokpingue
and Famienkro in the east. The mixed military units are
located in Bangolo in the west and Ngattadolikno in the
center, but the one in the east has not yet been deployed.


7. (SBU) ICC Commanders Colonel Kouadio Nicolas Kouakou of
the National Armed Forces of Cote d'Ivoire (FANCI) and Lt.
Colonel Karim Ouattara of the FN Armed Forces cited budget,
recruitment, and lack of vehicles and communications
equipment as challenges for the ICC. According to the ICC,
it has only 370 soldiers out of a full complement of 568 and
only 21 vehicles out of 58. Colonels Kouakou and Ouattara
told Emboffs that the question of ranks does not pose a
problem for the military, but General Bakayoko admitted
October 10 to Emboffs that recognition of FN ranks has a
negative impact on the DDR's ability to function.

DDR
---


8. (C) Ministry of Defense Deputy Cabinet Director Dapleu
Lazare Gbale told Emboffs October 8 that the OPA vision for
DDR is different from the classic model. ICC commanders
Colonel Kouakou and Lt. Colonel Ouattara told Emboffs October
11 that the finality of DDR is one unified army, cautioned
that the process cannot be rushed, and stressed that
reinsertion and disarmament must be linked. While UNDP, the
World Bank and the EU seem willing to use reintegration
programs as a carrot for disarmament and demobilization.
UNOCI DDR Chief Jean-Luc Stalon told Emboffs October 8 that
DDR can only be credible if it is supervised by the UN and
meets minimum international standards. (Note: Emboffs have
been told that Stalon will be departing UNOCI within several
months over frustration at the pace and direction of the DDR
process. End Note.) EU Political Counselor Gianmarco Scuppa
told Emboffs October 8 that UNDP, World Bank and EU will
organize a meeting to enable the international community to
discuss the future of DDR in Cote d'Ivoire.


9. (SBU) The importance of providing jobs for youth was noted
in many meetings. General Bakayoko said creation of the
"civic service" provided for in the OPA must occur and
requested U.S. assistance with reintegration, noting that
elections will not be successful if two-thirds of the
country's population is unemployed. Bouake Deputy Mayor
Toure also noted to Emboffs on October 10 the importance of
having the "civic service" address the issue of employment
for ex-combatants. Guiglo Deputy Mayor Douai Jacques told
Emboffs October 13 that the region has a significant
unemployment problem, although statistics have not been
gathered since the war, and requested USG assistance in
providing activities for youth. Militia leader Maho Glofei
told Emboffs October 13 that the "civic service" is important
for young Ivorians since they need to be reassured about
their future.

Militia
--------------


10. (C) UNOCI Military Observer Matthews Nyanga of Kenya told
Emboffs October 13 that members of the militia in the west
are dissatisfied because not all of those who turned over
their weapons to the government on May 19 have received
payment. UNOCI's Stalon told Emboffs October 8 that UNOCI
identified 2,000 armed combatants in the west, but
discontinued disarmament of the militias (DDM) after 981 went
through the program because UNOCI was recovering small
numbers of weapons. Stalon said that most militia members
did not have individual arms and that the real DDM objective
in the west is dismantlement of arms caches rather than
demobilization of individuals. Benin Battalion Commander
Medeto told Emboffs October 13 that the security situation in
the west is calm because President Gbagbo has instructed his
followers in the area to support the OPA. Milobs Nyanga
noted October 13 that the situation is presently calm, but
that it is not possible to guarantee that it will remain so.
Neither Medeto nor Nyanga believe that the militias are
totally disarmed.


11. (C) Militia leader "General" Maho Glofei, President of
the Resistance Forces of the Great West, told Emboffs October
13 that he sustains the OPA as long as the "government

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supports its strict implementation." Glofei said he
understood that Prime Minister Soro was serious about the OPA
once the zone of confidence was dismantled. Glofei added
that he trusts President Gbagbo and that President Gbagbo had
told him it was necessary for the militia to disarm.
According to Maho, his group has totally disarmed except for
his 8 bodyguards. (Note: The Resistance Forces of the Great
West is made up of 4 sub-groups. Maho may have been
referring to his FLGO sub-group, but the prevailing view is
that neither the FLGO or the Resistance Forces of the Great
West have completely disarmed. End Note.) Glofei urged
enhanced U.S. involvement in Cote d'Ivoire so that France
knows "it is not alone in Cote d'Ivoire" and accused France
of being behind the June 29 attack on Prime Minister Soro's
plane.


12. (C) Comment. There seems to be widespread grass roots
support outside of Abidjan for the success of the OPA.
However, citizens' initial optimism for the agreement has
been dampened by the continual delays in its implementation
and lack of concrete progress on the ground. In order for
the OPA to serve as an instrument that will lead the country
out of its five-year crisis, implementation must be
accelerated. There have been some recent positive steps.
The audiences foraines have begun, albeit not very
successfully, and the government has taken measures to enable
Prefects and sub-Prefects to return to their posts in the
north. If the OPA is to be a success and not go the way of
the numerous peace agreements that preceded it, such measures
must continue without delay so that Ivorians see momentum in
OPA implementation. End Comment.
AKUETTEH