Opposition Takes All In Early Local Elections

UNCLAS ZAGREB 000537

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SCE - BELL

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL HR
SUBJECT: Opposition Takes All In Early Local Elections

REF: A) Zagreb 464

B) Zagreb 446 and previous


1. SUMMARY AND COMMENT: The opposition Social
Democratic Party (SDP) has managed to enter governing
coalitions in all three major places where early local
elections were held on April 9 (reftels),pushing the
ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) from local
power in two counties and hanging on to leadership in
a hotly contested city government. While these
isolated elections are too small to draw broad
conclusions, and the HDZ's hold on central authority
continues unchallenged, the outcome injects some
confidence into SDP leaders in the lead-up to
parliamentary elections expected in late 2007. END
SUMMARY AND COMMENT.

IN POWER, BUT PARTNERS NOT ALL LIKE-MINDED
--------------


2. The only clear victory for the SDP came in Pozega-
Slavonia County, where the current mayor of the city
of Pozega, Zdravko Ronko, will become the county
prefect after leading the party to an outright
majority. In Dubrovnik-Neretva County, the SDP signed
a coalition agreement with the Croatian People's
Party-Liberal Democrats (HNS) and the independent list
of ex-HDZ tycoon Stipe Gabric Jambo. Under the deal,
Jambo's generally right-wing list will take the
prefect job as the biggest winner within the new
coalition. HDZ prefects were unseated in both
counties.


3. In the City of Velika Gorica, the Democratic Center
(DC) party of former justice minister Vesna Skare-
Ozbolt decided to side with the SDP-HNS-HSLS group
against its former partner HDZ. Former Minister of
Foreign Affairs Tonino Picula of the SDP will return
to the mayor's office until the next local elections
ordinarily due in 2009, while the DC will get the
chairmanship of the City Council.


4. COMMENT: In addition to losing two counties, the
HDZ is stinging after failing to regain power in
Velika Gorica despite the fact that Minister of
Finance Ivan Suker, the former mayor, campaigned
heavily there with the help of other key cabinet
ministers. On the other hand, the SDP may face
significant challenges in managing these new local
administrations. Except in Pozega where SDP's victory
was clear, the party will have to govern in Dubrovnik
County and Velika Gorica in coalition with partners
that are not necessarily politically like-minded.


5. Also, these local governments cannot count on
understanding and cooperation from HDZ-led central
government, which may further tie their hands. By
coincidence or not, the state inspectorate shut down a
quarry operated by tycoon Stipe Gabric Jambo the very
day his coalition in Dubrovnik County with the SDP and
HNS was signed. While the local HDZ dismissed
allegations this was in any way linked to the new
political circumstances, Jambo is convinced the move
was politically motivated. Prime Minister and HDZ
President Ivo Sanader used the situation surrounding
these new coalitions to label its main rival SDP as a
party of "tradesmen." SDP President Racan rejected the
accusations noting the HDZ didn't mind tycoons such as
Jambo while they were in coalition with Sanader's
party. This bickering will likely subside now that
negotiations among parties are over, but
"unprincipled" coalitions such as this in Dubrovnik
are potentially a weak point for the SDP, which the
HDZ will certainly continue to target as we approach
the "big battle" for parliament in 2007. END COMMENT.

FRANK