Opposition Takes All In Early Local Elections

UNCLAS ZAGREB 000537 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SCE - BELL E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL HR SUBJECT: Opposition Takes All In Early Local Elections REF: A) Zagreb 464 B) Zagreb 446 and previous ¶1. SUMMARY AND COMMENT: The opposition Social Democratic Party (SDP) has managed to enter governing coalitions in all three major places where early local elections were held on April 9 (reftels),pushing the ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) from local power in two counties and hanging on to leadership in a hotly contested city government. While these isolated elections are too small to draw broad conclusions, and the HDZ's hold on central authority continues unchallenged, the outcome injects some confidence into SDP leaders in the lead-up to parliamentary elections expected in late 2007. END SUMMARY AND COMMENT. IN POWER, BUT PARTNERS NOT ALL LIKE-MINDED -------------- ¶2. The only clear victory for the SDP came in Pozega- Slavonia County, where the current mayor of the city of Pozega, Zdravko Ronko, will become the county prefect after leading the party to an outright majority. In Dubrovnik-Neretva County, the SDP signed a coalition agreement with the Croatian People's Party-Liberal Democrats (HNS) and the independent list of ex-HDZ tycoon Stipe Gabric Jambo. Under the deal, Jambo's generally right-wing list will take the prefect job as the biggest winner within the new coalition. HDZ prefects were unseated in both counties. ¶3. In the City of Velika Gorica, the Democratic Center (DC) party of former justice minister Vesna Skare- Ozbolt decided to side with the SDP-HNS-HSLS group against its former partner HDZ. Former Minister of Foreign Affairs Tonino Picula of the SDP will return to the mayor's office until the next local elections ordinarily due in 2009, while the DC will get the chairmanship of the City Council. ¶4. COMMENT: In addition to losing two counties, the HDZ is stinging after failing to regain power in Velika Gorica despite the fact that Minister of Finance Ivan Suker, the former mayor, campaigned heavily there with the help of other key cabinet ministers. On the other hand, the SDP may face significant challenges in managing these new local administrations. Except in Pozega where SDP's victory was clear, the party will have to govern in Dubrovnik County and Velika Gorica in coalition with partners that are not necessarily politically like-minded. ¶5. Also, these local governments cannot count on understanding and cooperation from HDZ-led central government, which may further tie their hands. By coincidence or not, the state inspectorate shut down a quarry operated by tycoon Stipe Gabric Jambo the very day his coalition in Dubrovnik County with the SDP and HNS was signed. While the local HDZ dismissed allegations this was in any way linked to the new political circumstances, Jambo is convinced the move was politically motivated. Prime Minister and HDZ President Ivo Sanader used the situation surrounding these new coalitions to label its main rival SDP as a party of "tradesmen." SDP President Racan rejected the accusations noting the HDZ didn't mind tycoons such as Jambo while they were in coalition with Sanader's party. This bickering will likely subside now that negotiations among parties are over, but "unprincipled" coalitions such as this in Dubrovnik are potentially a weak point for the SDP, which the HDZ will certainly continue to target as we approach the "big battle" for parliament in 2007. END COMMENT. FRANK