GLAVAS: WINGS CLIPPED, BUT WATCH THE CLAWS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 000233

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DEPT FOR EUR DICARLO; EUR/SCE ENGLISH, BELL;
S/WCI HODGKINSON; L/EUR JOHNSON; INR MORIN
DEPT PLEASE PASS TO NSC BRAUN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/21/2016
TAGS: PGOV KAWC HR
SUBJECT: GLAVAS: WINGS CLIPPED, BUT WATCH THE CLAWS

REF: A. ZAGREB 01

B. 05 ZAGREB 1254

C. 05 ZAGREB 827

Classified By: Ambassador Ralph Frank for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: Branimir Glavas, the Slavonian
strongman who broke ranks with PM Ivo Sanader and the ruling
Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) last year (ref C),has been
politically isolated and his power limited to Osijek and the
surrounding county. While Glavas currently serves as the
Osijek city council president and essentially controls the
county government, his efforts to recruit allies from
neighboring cities and counties have been generally snubbed
by local politicians. A police investigation into the
torture and liquidation of a number of Serb civilians in 1991
has strongly implicated Glavas (ref B),putting him on the
defensive in his feud with the HDZ. The investigation has
raised hopes for his indictment among his opponents and fears
of retaliation among witnesses. State prosecutors are
proceeding cautiously and will not indict without clear-cut
evidence. While an indictment would bring a welcome end to a
political career of corruption and intimidation, Post is
confident the police investigation and HDZ efforts to isolate
Glavas have already destroyed his national influence and
reduced him to a regional concern. END SUMMARY AND COMMENT.


KINGPIN IN OSIJEK . . .
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2. (C) During a February 13-14 PolOff visit to Osijek, local
contacts confirmed Glavas, local influence but also his
isolation. According to the OSCE,s Vukovar field office
director Andy Burridge and his Osijek staff, Glavas still
controls the local media and uses city council meetings to
grand stand on whatever issue is on his mind. As council
president, he controls all hiring within the city government
and is quite skilled in placing his loyalists where he needs
them to prolong his grip on power. NOTE: This is in keeping
with Glavas, modus operandi. While still in the HDZ, Glavas
served as president of the Parliamentary committee on
appointments and nominations and was infamous for his
exploitation of political patronage. END NOTE.


3. (C) Adding to his local influence, Burridge,s staff said
Glavas took the best political minds in the county with him
when he split with the HDZ, leaving little capable local
opposition. The HDZ has also been disappointingly slow in
rebuilding its powerbase in the area, as both the party,s
city and county chairmen work full time in Zagreb within the
GoC. COMMENT: The HDZ recently announced that it will hold
its annual convention in Osijek in April, so Sanader may be
preparing to buck this trend. END COMMENT.

. . . BUT NOT BEYOND
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4. (C) What Glavas has been unable to control is his destiny
outside of Osijek. Both Burridge and Osijek-based
correspondent Drago Hedl agreed that Glavas has been
completely unsuccessful in spreading his regional political
movement, &The Croatian Democratic Forum of Slavonia and
Baranja,8 beyond the borders of his home county. Glavas has
been able to recruit only a few people from around Slavonia,
according to the OSCE, and has not signed on anyone in a
position of power. Hedl explained that Glavas went as far as
drawing up a theoretical regional power structure and
identifying cities that would take the lead in such areas as
customs and agriculture, but politicians in places like
Slavonski Brod and Pozega rebuffed him, knowing he is in a
losing battle with Zagreb.


5. (C) In building his independent political movement (he
still refuses to call it a party),Glavas was counting of the
loyalty of certain key national figures whose political
careers he helped create, such as Minister of Defense
Berislav Roncevic and Ministry of Interior (MUP) State
Secretary Ivica Bucanjic. Both, among others, have shunned

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Glavas and sworn loyalty to Sanader.


6. (C) Osijek County Prefect Kresimir Bubalo, a Glavas
loyalist, admitted that the GoC has essentially broken
contact with his office. He said ministries do not even
respond to his letters regarding financing of county
projects. However, the county is trying to push ahead
without state support, he said, and succeeded, with help from
the northwestern Croatian region of Istria, in opening an
office in Brussels to attract EU investment.

ZAGREB 00000233 002 OF 002



LOCAL COALITION: A MARRIAGE OF CONVENIENCE
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7. (C) Osijek Mayor Anto Djapic, president of the far-right
Croatian Party of Rights (HSP),confessed that his alliance
with Glavas is strange and one of political convenience.
Glavas, regionalist movement is nothing more than a
political sales job, the mayor explained. Glavas doesn,t
really believe in regionalism, Djapic noted, &he,s just a
nationalist like me.8


8. (C) Djapic said that the HSP will stay in coalition with
Glavas during Parliamentary elections expected in late 2007
and together they &will completely sweep the HDZ off
Osijek,s political map.8 Djapic believes Glavas can draw
about 15 to 20 percent of the vote, but only in Osijek
county, not across Slavonia. In Djapic,s view, the more
Sanader pressures Glavas, the more his local power will grow,
but he will remain isolated. Djapic added that Glavas will
not fade away, as he must remain politically active to
sustain his power network.


9. (C) Whether the coalition will last through 2007 remains
to be seen. The OSCE pointed out that Glavas thrives on
conflict. He is most comfortable when he is on the attack.
In the absence of the HDZ and with Glavas already showing
signs of jealousy over the press, frequent attention to
Djapic, they said, it would not be surprising to see Glavas
eventually turn on his current ally.

INVESTIGATION: STILL SEARCHING FOR THE SMOKING GUN
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10. (C) Osijek Police Chief Vladimir Faber told PolOff the
investigation into the torture and murder of a number of Serb
civilians in 1991 is nearly complete, but it is still
questionable whether there is enough evidence to indict
Glavas, commander of the city defense at the time. The
investigation has already led to the arrest of Fred Margus
for unconnected killings, but Faber has been unable to find a
compelling and reliable eyewitness to the murders he suspects
were ordered by Glavas.


11. (C) Faber,s primary eyewitness, Krunoslav Fehir, has
compromised his testimony by giving conflicting statements to
the press despite police efforts to protect his identity.
MUP,s witness protection unit has gained invaluable
experience during the investigation and now has several other
unnamed witnesses under protection. Faber is convinced that
many key witnesses will come forward if Glavas is indicted
and arrested.


12. (C) The decision to indict, however, remains with Chief
State Prosecutor Mladen Bajic, who must be careful to avoid
the impression of succumbing to political pressure. If he
indicts without enough evidence, he explained, he will be
accused of serving the political interests of Sanader. If he
refuses to indict due to insufficient evidence, he will be
accused of protecting Glavas. The consummate professional,
Bajic has turned to the vast database of the International
Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) in hopes
of finding the additional evidence he needs to launch a
clear-cut case.


13. (C) Bajic thinks he may find the key in the case against
Tomislav Mercep, which ICTY prosecutors recently transferred
to Croatia in the pre-indictment phase under the Tribunal's
completion strategy. Mercep was Glavas' counterpart in
Vukovar at the beginning of the war and was equally notorious
for his tactics against the local Serb population. Bajic
hopes that communications between Mercep and Glavas that are
part of that case will establish the existence of an
institutionalized command structure in which Glavas directed
the triggermen in the Osijek murders.
FRANK