RIGHT WING WINS NEIGHBORHOOD COUNCILS IN EASTERN CITY OF

UNCLAS ZAGREB 001480 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV HR SUBJECT: RIGHT WING WINS NEIGHBORHOOD COUNCILS IN EASTERN CITY OF OSIJEK REF: ZAGREB 1466 and previous ¶1. Summary and comment: The regional Croatian Democratic Congress of Slavonia and Baranja (HDSSB, a party led by war-crimes suspect and local strongman Branimir Glavas) and the right-wing Croatian Party of Rights (HSP) won over half the seats in the Osijek city neighborhood councils (the lowest level of self-government) in December 10 elections. These two parties' success should be seen in the context of Glavas's hunger strike in reaction to war crime proceedings against him (see reftel). While Glavas's protest has bolstered the Slovonian right wing, more general support for these groups, especially HSP, tends to oscillate according to occasion. A 30 percent voter turnout cannot be assumed to reflect the sentiments of a majority in Osijek, let alone the voters in the rest of the country, and should not be viewed with undue alarm. End summary and comment. ¶2. The city of Osijek on December 10 held elections for neighborhood councils, the lowest levels of elected authority. Because the powers of these bodies do not exceed decisions such as whether there should be two or three benches in a park, turnouts are typically low, and the December 10 turnout in Osijek was just under 30 percent. Five parties managed to cross the five-percent threshold. The recently created party HDSSB -- a regional movement gathered around former Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) renegade Branimir Glavas -- won 33.2 percent. Its partner in the city and county -- the far-right HSP -- won 21.6 percent. The nationally ruling HDZ came third with 12.4, followed by the social democrats (SDP) and its regional partner (9.7 percent). The only other party clearing the threshold was the Croatian Pensioners Party (HSU),a party with steady support ever since it entered parliament in 2003. Everyone, including the winners, agrees that the victory of the two right-wing groups is directly linked to the war crimes proceedings against Branimir Glavas, his ensuing hunger strike and temporary release. After he left the HDZ in the spring of 2005, Glavas built his political platform on defending the eastern region of Slavonia against the central(ized) power in Zagreb. This policy climaxed when his detention became imminent and his supporters rallied behind him under the slogan "Be spiteful, Slavonia!" The slogan must have hit the right note for just over half of the thirty percent of voters in Osijek who turned out on December 10. ¶3. Despite the low turnout and insignificant authority of these councils, HDSSB and the HSP will certainly try to exploit this success on the road to what they hope will be a victory in 2007 national elections. Osijek-Baranja County Prefect Kresimir Bubalo (HDSSB) has already projected the next Parliament based on these results, arguing that no future government will be possible without his party, an argument HSP leaders have made about themselves many times before. A nation-wide poll from early December rated the HSP at 16.3 percent, which is probably a historic high. Support for the HSP over the past year has wavered between 6 percent (last spring) and 16 now, and is usually closely linked to the prevailing political circumstances at that moment. Glavas's influence in Osijek and the surrounding county has always been great, and his self-induced "martyrdom" has apparently won him sympathy from voters outside his core base. His strong alliance with the HSP -- a party that views and promotes itself as the best defender of national interests -- has undoubtedly attracted support for their cause from other parts of the country, as the poll shows. Nevertheless, 70 percent of the Osijek voters did not show up at the polls, unmotivated by the Glavas cause. Many of those could well be the "silent majority" that had for fourteen years voted for a liberal mayor before the current Glavas-Djapic combination, and now simply finds no one to represent their interests adequately. BRADTKE