AMB WISNER IN ZAGREB -- ENGAGING CROATIANS ON

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 001307 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS HELSINKI FOR SCHLAEFER/PISHKO - PLEASE PASS TO AMB WISNER DEPT FOR EUR DICARLO; EUR/SCE HOH, BALIAN, CARCANI E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV UN UNMIK YI EU HR REGIONAL ISSUES SUBJECT: AMB WISNER IN ZAGREB -- ENGAGING CROATIANS ON KOSOVO REF: ZAGREB 1110 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: Ambassador Wisner's first visit to Zagreb is well timed, coming just days after President Bush's White House acknowledgement of Croatia's leadership role in regional stability during his meeting with PM Ivo Sanader. In addition, MP Milorad Pupovac, a leading representative of the Serbian community in Croatia, has just returned from a successful week in Kosovo, where he has been engaged by the OSCE to help politically organize the Serbs of Kosovo. As a result, Ambassador Wisner is likely to find receptive audiences when he meets October 30 with senior GoC officials Pupovac, and President Mesic's top foreign policy advisor. ¶2. While Pupovac is playing a critical role within the Serb community, planning the first Serbian People's Congress for December, the GoC can play a large role in promoting regional acceptance of Kosovo's eventual final status. PM Sanader's media comments that the Serbian government must have a voice in determining Kosovo's final status are widely viewed as bilateral olive branches rather than opposition to a final status without Belgrade's consensus. Already assisting the GoS on its Euro-Atlantic integration path in such areas as cooperation with the Hague Tribunal, Sanader and his government can help Serbia see that the future offers more than the past. Croatia already provides nine police officers to UNMIK and could be asked to make additional contributions to current and future international missions. END SUMMARY AND COMMENT. GOVERNMENT ENTHUSIASM, FEAR OF PRECEDENT -------------- ¶3. The GoC welcomes the opportunity to engage on Kosovo, both to foster the stability that is key to its tourist-dependent economy and to demonstrate its regional leadership capabilities to the international community. Sanader is interested in proving his government's maturity not only to NATO and the EU, but also to the UN, where it is seeking a non-permanent seat on the UNSC. ¶4. President Mesic is equally enthusiastic to engage, having just completed an official visit to Macedonia where he met on the margins with Kosovo PM Agim Ceku. Mesic has played a key role in normalization of relations with Belgrade, and his relationship with Serbian President Boris Tadic could enable him to also play a useful role in calming Serbia's reactions to Kosovo's final status. ¶5. Croatia's one fear regarding Kosovo's future is that Republika Srpska could use an eventual decision on independence as a precedent to push for a destabilizing referendum on its own independence. In his meetings with Croatians, Ambassador Wisner could usefully emphasize USG views why Kosovo will not set a precedent. CROATIAN SERB LEADERSHIP IN ORGANIZING KOSOVO SERBS -------------- -------------- ¶6. For the past five months, MP Pupovac has been visiting every Serb enclave in Kosovo as an OSCE consultant and encouraging the community to participate in Kosovo's political future. Pupovac succeeded last week in creating a 33-member elected organizing committee for an All-Serb Congress scheduled in December. The Congress, according to Pupovac, will include representation from governments and NGOs from more than 132 communities and the strongest refugee association. ¶7. In an October 26 discussion with PolOff, Pupovac said he thinks Kosovo's Serbs are ready to take responsibility for themselves and they understand that Kosovo will be a "different" entity in the future. But he called on the USG and the international community to send strong messages to the Kosovar Albanian that they must compromise and accept the Serbs and equals. "If Kosovo is lost for Belgrade," he said, "it does not mean it is lost for the Serbs in Kosovo. Kosovo must be both Albanian and Serbian." He was optimistic that the December All-Serb Congress could help define a realistic vision for the Serbian community in Kosovo's future. POSSIBLE GoC CONTRIBUTIONS TO UNMIK AND EU FOLLOW-ON -------------- -------------- ¶8. In August, the GoC expanded its contribution to UNMIK from ZAGREB 00001307 002 OF 002 three to nine police officers. Croatia has also had great success in military policing missions in Afghanistan. It would be reasonable for Ambassador Wisner to encourage GoC leaders to approach the EU to explore how Croatia can best contribute to future law enforcement missions in Kosovo. BRADTKE