AMB WISNER IN ZAGREB -- ENGAGING CROATIANS ON

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 001307

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

HELSINKI FOR SCHLAEFER/PISHKO - PLEASE PASS TO AMB WISNER
DEPT FOR EUR DICARLO; EUR/SCE HOH, BALIAN, CARCANI

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV UN UNMIK YI EU HR REGIONAL ISSUES
SUBJECT: AMB WISNER IN ZAGREB -- ENGAGING CROATIANS ON
KOSOVO

REF: ZAGREB 1110


1. (SBU) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: Ambassador Wisner's first visit
to Zagreb is well timed, coming just days after President
Bush's White House acknowledgement of Croatia's leadership
role in regional stability during his meeting with PM Ivo
Sanader. In addition, MP Milorad Pupovac, a leading
representative of the Serbian community in Croatia, has just
returned from a successful week in Kosovo, where he has been
engaged by the OSCE to help politically organize the Serbs of
Kosovo. As a result, Ambassador Wisner is likely to find
receptive audiences when he meets October 30 with senior GoC
officials Pupovac, and President Mesic's top foreign policy
advisor.


2. While Pupovac is playing a critical role within the Serb
community, planning the first Serbian People's Congress for
December, the GoC can play a large role in promoting regional
acceptance of Kosovo's eventual final status. PM Sanader's
media comments that the Serbian government must have a voice
in determining Kosovo's final status are widely viewed as
bilateral olive branches rather than opposition to a final
status without Belgrade's consensus. Already assisting the
GoS on its Euro-Atlantic integration path in such areas as
cooperation with the Hague Tribunal, Sanader and his
government can help Serbia see that the future offers more
than the past. Croatia already provides nine police officers
to UNMIK and could be asked to make additional contributions
to current and future international missions. END SUMMARY
AND COMMENT.

GOVERNMENT ENTHUSIASM, FEAR OF PRECEDENT
--------------


3. The GoC welcomes the opportunity to engage on Kosovo, both
to foster the stability that is key to its tourist-dependent
economy and to demonstrate its regional leadership
capabilities to the international community. Sanader is
interested in proving his government's maturity not only to
NATO and the EU, but also to the UN, where it is seeking a
non-permanent seat on the UNSC.


4. President Mesic is equally enthusiastic to engage, having
just completed an official visit to Macedonia where he met on
the margins with Kosovo PM Agim Ceku. Mesic has played a key
role in normalization of relations with Belgrade, and his
relationship with Serbian President Boris Tadic could enable
him to also play a useful role in calming Serbia's reactions
to Kosovo's final status.


5. Croatia's one fear regarding Kosovo's future is that
Republika Srpska could use an eventual decision on
independence as a precedent to push for a destabilizing
referendum on its own independence. In his meetings with
Croatians, Ambassador Wisner could usefully emphasize USG
views why Kosovo will not set a precedent.

CROATIAN SERB LEADERSHIP IN ORGANIZING KOSOVO SERBS
-------------- --------------


6. For the past five months, MP Pupovac has been visiting
every Serb enclave in Kosovo as an OSCE consultant and
encouraging the community to participate in Kosovo's
political future. Pupovac succeeded last week in creating a
33-member elected organizing committee for an All-Serb
Congress scheduled in December. The Congress, according to
Pupovac, will include representation from governments and
NGOs from more than 132 communities and the strongest refugee
association.


7. In an October 26 discussion with PolOff, Pupovac said he
thinks Kosovo's Serbs are ready to take responsibility for
themselves and they understand that Kosovo will be a
"different" entity in the future. But he called on the USG
and the international community to send strong messages to
the Kosovar Albanian that they must compromise and accept the
Serbs and equals. "If Kosovo is lost for Belgrade," he said,
"it does not mean it is lost for the Serbs in Kosovo. Kosovo
must be both Albanian and Serbian." He was optimistic that
the December All-Serb Congress could help define a realistic
vision for the Serbian community in Kosovo's future.

POSSIBLE GoC CONTRIBUTIONS TO UNMIK AND EU FOLLOW-ON
-------------- --------------


8. In August, the GoC expanded its contribution to UNMIK from

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three to nine police officers. Croatia has also had great
success in military policing missions in Afghanistan. It
would be reasonable for Ambassador Wisner to encourage GoC
leaders to approach the EU to explore how Croatia can best
contribute to future law enforcement missions in Kosovo.
BRADTKE