ARMENIAN REFUGEE POPULATION DWINDLES AS PEOPLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000970

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC, PRM
USEMBASSY MOSCOW FOR REFUGEE COORDINATOR TIM RICHARDSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/19/2016
TAGS: PREF PREL PGOV PHUM AJ AM
SUBJECT: ARMENIAN REFUGEE POPULATION DWINDLES AS PEOPLE
NATURALIZE OR LEAVE


Classified By: Amb. John M. Evans for reasons 1.4 (b, d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Armenia's refugee population has dwindled enormously
since hundreds of thousands of ethnic Armenians fled across
the border from Azerbaijan, according to U.N. High
Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) statistics. UNHCR
Representative Peter Nicolaus told us preliminary results
from the Armenian UNHCR office's refugee census showed that,
while most refugees who naturalized have stayed in Armenia,
the vast majority of refugees who opted not to naturalize
have left the country. The Armenian government is providing
housing vouchers to a number of the remaining naturalized
former refugees, and UNHCR has committed to building
individual cottages to others. Nicolaus told us the majority
of the people his agency served weren't technically refugees
anymore, and thus weren't legally under UNHCR's mandate.
High Commissioner Antonio Guterres will pass through Armenia
August 20-21 at the end of his tour of the Caucasus, which
Nicolaus told us was initiated at Baku's request. The
Ambassador plans to meet with Guterres to discuss the future
of UNHCR's activities in Armenia. End Summary.

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REFUGEE CENSUS FINDS FEW REFUGEES
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2. (C) Nicolaus's office began a census of refugees last
October. So far, the census has been completed in two of
Armenia's 11 marzes, or administrative regions: Syunik and
Vayots Dzor. Census takers went door-to-door to every house
in each marz whose inhabitants were registered as refugees,
Nicolaus said. In Syunik, they visited the homes of just
under 14,000 refugees, and found only 262. In Vayots Dzor,
which had about 3,000 registered refugees on the rolls,
census takers found only 11 refugees. The story was
different for naturalized former refugees. About 3,100 of
the 3,900 naturalized former refugees registered in Syunik
were still living there, Nicolaus said.


3. (C) Aside from the obvious economic reasons for fleeing
(refugees are still among the poorest residents of Armenia),
refugees, most of whom go to Russia, have cultural reasons
for leaving Armenia. Nicolaus said that, because the
ethnically Armenian refugees had lived most of their lives in
Azerbaijan, their language and cultural associations tended
more toward Russia than Armenia. Further complicating their
already complicated lives, most of the Armenians who fled
Azerbaijan had lived in urban areas, primarily in Baku, and
were then settled in remote rural areas and expected to learn
how to farm.


4. (C) Nicolaus said he expected the completed census would
show between 5,000 and 20,000 refugees and between 20,000 and
50,000 naturalized former refugees living in Armenia. (Note:
He said UNHCR didn't anticipate completing the census on its
own, and that UNDP had expressed interest in taking up the
project. End Note.) The high end of that estimate
represents less than 20 percent of the refugees who fled
Azerbaijan during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict -- 360,000,
according to UNHCR.


5. (C) According to Gagik Yeganyan, the director of the
GOAM's Department for Migration and Refugees, the Armenian
government was providing housing vouchers to refugees in 10
marzes. Yeganyan told us the government hoped to implement
the program in the 11th marz, Yerevan, next year. Only
refugees currently living in communal housing are eligible
for the vouchers. Nicolaus told us the GOAM provided the
vouchers on the condition that UNHCR agreed to assist those
who did not live in communal housing, and thus were left out
of the government program. Nicolaus said UNHCR and the
Norwegian Refugee Council planned to build individual
cottages in all regions of the country except Yerevan.
(Note: PRM provided $100,000 of the $540,000 budget. End
Note.) He anticipated the two organizations together would
build about 250 cottages, which he estimated would take care
of the need for shelter. He characterized UNHCR's activity
as its "exit strategy from the shelter sector."

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WHAT'S NEXT FOR UNHCR IN ARMENIA?
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6. (C) Nicolaus said about 20,000 naturalized former
refugees, mostly elderly people without families, depend on

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UNHCR for food and for medical and social welfare assistance.
He said that although the refugee need was not dire in
Armenia, UNHCR could not pull out and leave Armenia holding
the bag. He said UNHCR and the international community in
general lobbied the government to make acquiring citizenship
easy for refugees, and that if UNHCR pulled its operation,
saying that there weren't any real refugees left in Armenia,
other countries in which UNHCR has a presence might take
notice and refuse to naturalize their refugees.

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HIGH COMMISSIONER COMING TO THE CAUCASUS
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7. (C) Nicolaus told us that High Commissioner Guterres'
visit to the region was prompted by an invitation from
Azerbaijan. (Note: Armenia will be Guterres' last (and
shortest) stop on a tour of all three Caucasus countries.)
He said UNHCR was the latest in a line of UN agencies
Azerbaijan was courting in an attempt to involve the UN in
the N-K negotiations. "They think, 'The more we involve the
UN in general, the more we can involve its political side,'"
Nicolaus said. He noted that the GOAJ is trying to persuade
UNAIDS to move its regional office out of Armenia and into
Azerbaijan. Nicolaus also said the Azeris were inflating
their statistics regarding internally displaced persons, and
that while at the end of the N-K war they reported 500,000 to
600,000, now they are reporting one million. "Even if they
reproduce at a very rapid pace, it's hard to explain," he
said.

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COMMENT
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8. (C) UNHCR continues to provide valuable assistance, though
Nicolaus acknowledged to us that the community he served
(naturalized former refugees) wasn't technically under the
agency's mandate. After the shelter project is finished, all
that remains for UNHCR is to continue its assistance to the
20,000 or so naturalized former refugees who depend on the
agency. This assistance doesn't necessarily require the
presence of a UNHCR office in Yerevan, and conceivably could
be done remotely. We plan to discuss these issues with High
Commissioner when he visits in August, and would welcome the
presence of Refugee Coordinator Tim Richardson if he is
available.
EVANS