HUMAN RIGHTS DEFENDER: DEMOCRACY COULD BE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000951 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/CARC, DRL E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM AM SUBJECT: HUMAN RIGHTS DEFENDER: DEMOCRACY COULD BE ARMENIA'S BEST EXPORT REF: YEREVAN 208 YEREVAN 00000951 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Amb. John M. Evans for reasons 1.4 (b, d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) During a July 13 lunch with Mission staff at the Ambassador's residence, Armenian Human Rights Defender Armen Harutyunyan speculated about Armenia's chances of becoming the region's leading democracy. When the Ambassador raised the linkage between potentially fraudulent elections and suspension or termination of the MCC program, Harutyunyan said he thought government leaders did not take seriously the threat of losing funding. Harutyunyan discussed his role in the upcoming elections and the Armenian political tableau. Distinguishing himself from his predecessor, he said his office would focus on systemic, institutional reform rather than taking up individual citizen complaints. He has matured in his short time in office and shows promise as a useful, articulate leader to help Armenia advance its democratic development. -------------- ON DEMOCRACY AND ELECTIONS -------------- ¶2. (C) Every day that Armenia does not embrace democracy is a day lost, according to Harutyunyan. He said he believed that, because of Azerbaijan's oil and the BTC pipeline, Azerbaijan would not be penalized for unfair elections the same way Armenia would be. Harutyunyan said he thought a democratic Armenia would have greater value to the West than an oil-rich, but undemocratic, Azerbaijan. He spoke earnestly of Armenia's opportunity to become the region's leading democracy, likening Armenia's potential position to that of Israel in the Middle East: a strong democratic ally in a difficult neighborhood. ¶3. (C) The Ambassador noted that all the pre-conditions are in place for Armenia to become a true democracy, and stressed that the West would be watching closely the parliamentary elections in 2007 and the presidential elections in 2008. He cautioned that, if the elections were fraudulent, the MCC program could be suspended or terminated. Harutyunyan suggested that GOAM officials may not take that threat seriously, because they believed that any suspension would be temporary. Ambassador Evans noted that with large scale infrastructure programs, such as the MCC program in Armenia, a temporary suspension would be very costly to the overall project. ¶4. (C) Discussing his role in the push for free and fair elections, Harutyunyan said that, as human rights defender, he had the authority to bring election-related cases to the Constitutional Court during the campaign. He noted that, by law, candidates were permitted to appeal to the Court only after the election was over. Distinguishing himself from his predecessor, he said he would focus on institutional change rather than individuals cases, but that he expected that filing cases with the Court would be his primary role during the election season. -------------- ON POLITICAL PARTIES -------------- ¶5. (C) Harutyunyan said he saw two major players in the political field -- Prosperous Armenia (reftel) and the Republican Party -- and speculated that consolidation of political power in these two parties might lead to instability. The Ambassador suggested that, to the contrary, the two parties might serve to keep each other in check. Harutyunyan also said he was concerned about the fate of the new government after the implementation of constitutional amendments increasing the Prime Minister's power and decreasing the President's power, noting that President Kocharian was the glue holding together the ruling coalition. (Note: Harutyunyan was the president's former constitutional lawyer, and one of the main authors of the constitutional amendments put to referendum last November. End Note.) Harutyunyan said the opposition was very weak, and that there was no chance of a "colored revolution" happening here. He said the opposition was pushing for "democracy" because it was politically expedient, and that they would be no different from the current government, were they to take over. -------------- YEREVAN 00000951 002.2 OF 002 COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) Harutyunyan was already well established as the president's man and did a creditable job as rector of the Academy of Public Administration before assuming the position of human rights defender in February. He did not inspire much confidence during his first few months in office, focusing too much, it seemed, on requesting assistance from diplomatic missions and international organizations, rather than concrete action. He has grown in the job, however, successfully argued an expropriation case against the government in April. His comments during the lunch were far more free-thinking and candid than in the past. He also discussed specific actions his office is taking, such as an upcoming trip to Goris in southern Armenia to look into allegations of prison violence. The proof of the pudding will be in the eating, however, and while we take his increased activity as a positive sign, active engagement on the upcoming elections will be a critical test of his abilities, courage and commitment. EVANS