GHUKASIAN CALLS FOR ARMENIA TO LEAVE THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L YEREVAN 000274 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/SNEC, EUR/CARC E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/24/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV AJ AM SUBJECT: GHUKASIAN CALLS FOR ARMENIA TO LEAVE THE "NEGOTIATING" TO N-K REF: YEREVAN 189 Classified By: Amb. John M. Evans, for reasons 1.4 (b, d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Nagorno-Karabakh "president" Arkady Ghukasian called on Armenia to pursue negotiations with Azerbaijan only if N-K representatives were a part of the process. Although Armenian Foreign Minister Oskanian quickly moved to issue a clarification of Ghukasian's comments, the GOAM was clearly caught by surprise by Ghukasian's statements, the second time in less than a month that Oskanian "clarified" Ghukasian's public remarks (reftel). Ghukasian and his senior staff clearly believe that time is on their side, and appear to be willing to try to sink any possible deal at this time. End Summary. -------------- GHUKASIAN'S WEEKEND INTERVIEW -------------- ¶2. (C) In an interview with RFE/RL published February 18, N-K "president" Arkady Ghukasian said that Azerbaijan's refusal to negotiate directly with the Karabakh "authorities" was one of the main obstacles to a resolution of the dispute. Ghukasian claimed that Baku was dealing with the GOAM only for "propaganda" purposes, and that only if Azerbaijan started talking to Karabakh would he believe that Azerbaijan was interested in finding a solution to the conflict. In a widely-quoted statement, Ghukasian said, "They (the Armenian leadership) have to make a choice -- either to continue negotiations in the hope of finding a formula more or less acceptable to all sides, or to refuse to talk to Azerbaijan until the latter understands that it is impossible to resolve the conflict without Karabakh." Armenian media from across the political spectrum were quick to jump on Ghukasian's remarks as a call for Armenia to withdraw from negotiations on N-K; at a conference on Regional Security hosted by the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Ghukasian's political advisor David Babayan confirmed February 22 that Ghukasian was suggesting that the GOAM needed to leave the negotiating to the "government" of N-K. -------------- OSKANIAN "CLARIFYING," AGAIN -------------- ¶3. (C) On the heels of Ghukasian's pre-Rambouillet comments that he did not share the GOAM's "optimism" regarding a possibility of a settlement (and Oskanian's prompt public announcement that journalists had "misinterpreted" Ghukasian's words),the Foreign Minister lost little time in making a formal statement to attempt to limit the fallout from Ghukasian's interview. Oskanian told reporters from the official GOAM news service, Armenpress, that "We are thoroughly familiar with the comments of NKR President, Mr. Ghukasian, and we believe that the headlines in the Armenian press are not such accurate reflections of the essence of his comments in regard to the imperative of Armenia's coming out of the negotiations." Oskanian concluded his remarks, noting that, "There is an understanding among all, including the Azerbaijanis, that once agreement has been reached on the basic principles and the work has begun on the details of the agreement, Nagorno-Karabakh will join the talks." -------------- -------------- COMMENT: N-K ANGLE AN EXCUSE, NOT A REASON, FOR KOCHARIAN -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Despite clear evidence that Ghukasian intended his remarks to draw a line in the sand (confirmed by N-K representative Karlen Avetisian's remarks to us) we believe that they will not be a factor in Yerevan decision-making. They may, however, serve as a partial excuse for Kocharian should he wish to pull out of the settlement talks altogether. In fact, although there is strong popular support for N-K, Ghukasian and his "government" are entirely dependent on the GOAM, and Kocharian holds all the cards in this particular game. EVANS