LOCAL ACTIVISTS SKEPTICAL FOREIGN ASSISTANCE WILL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001365 SIPDIS SIPDIS FOR EUR/CARC, EUR/ACE, DRL E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/27/2011 TAGS: PREL PGOV EAID PHUM KDEM KPAO AM SUBJECT: LOCAL ACTIVISTS SKEPTICAL FOREIGN ASSISTANCE WILL LEAD TO CLEANER ELECTIONS Classified By: Pol/Econ chief Steve Banks, reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On September 26, donor organizations presented election assistance plans to a group of local NGO partners. The NGOs were pessimistic that technical assistance and training would make much difference to the conduct of the 2007 elections, believing the GOAM would pre-determine the outcome and ensure the desired results. The NGOs were especially concerned about tightening government controls on broadcast media, and public apathy. END SUMMARY. -------------- NGOS DISCUSS ELECTION PROGRAMS -------------- ¶2. (U) At a September 26 Open Society Institute roundtable, the leading international donors in Armenia (USAID, UNDP, OSCE, CoE, OSI, and UK Embassy) presented their plans for election assistance programs to local NGOs. These programs aim to provide technical assistance, educate election officials and voters, and increase public awareness and participation. -------------- FAIR ELECTIONS RECIPE LACKS POLITICAL WILL -------------- ¶3. (C) NGO leaders expressed doubt that the assistance would lead to fair democratic elections because, they said, authorities had already mapped out the next National Assembly. NGOs were quite skeptical about donor plans to train Central Election Commission members and judges, saying that those officials had been ordered to commit election fraud in the past. Civil Society Institute,s Artak Kirakosian commented that technical assistance will go only so far. Kirakosian said the international community should take measures to ensure the physical safety of local election monitors and other public participants in the process. -------------- ARMENIAN PUBLIC - APATHETIC AND DEMORALIZED -------------- ¶4. (C) The NGO leaders were disheartened by the seeming political apathy of Armenian society. Transparency International,s Amalia Kostanyan said the general public saw no incentive to get involved. Despite constitutional reforms, little has changed in practice. She said that the impunity of corrupt officials, including past election-stealers, also demoralized voters. Kostanyan suggested it was the international community's obligation to see that Armenia prosecuted such offenders. Other NGO leaders noted that the Armenian public was not immune to corruption, and said that those who sell their votes for USD 10 must be made to understand the long-term consequences of their actions. The NGOs agreed that they needed to change the mentality of the people in order to try to create the demand for democracy from below. -------------- BLEAK CONDITIONS FOR MEDIA FREEDOM -------------- ¶5. (C) NGO leaders said the most alarming problem was the absence of independent broadcast media. According to Nune Sargsian, the executive director of Internews NGO, in previous elections it had been possible to encourage certain TV and radio stations to provide fair and objective election campaign coverage. But Sargsian said that all broadcast media are now under strict government control. The Helsinki Committee,s Avetik Ishkhanian said international efforts to train media outlets will do nothing about the problem of government control. Other NGO leaders suggested that the international organizations should purchase air time for debates to ensure candidates receive equal and fair coverage. (NOTE: It has been alleged and is widely believed that the Presidential spokesman and chief of staff closely vet broadcasters' news and editorial content, even reviewing stories in advance for outlets deemed less trustworthy. Radio Liberty -- which authorities appear reluctant to drive off the air -- and some Russian news reporting, are seen as the most credible and independent news sources on Armenia's national airwaves. END NOTE.) -------------- COMMENT -------------- YEREVAN 00001365 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) The local NGOs participating represent some of our best partners and the most active pro-democracy voices in Armenia. Their deep pessimism is troubling, if not wholly unsurprising, as many Armenians share their sentiments. According to an August Gallup Poll commissioned by the International Republican Institute, 78 percent of respondents said the 2007 parliamentary elections would not be free and fair. Even so, 71 percent of respondents said they would "definitely" or "probably" vote in those elections. But, the local NGO's attitude may also be slightly exaggerated: These are the people most involved with democracy and human rights-building efforts, often confronting the authorities on a daily basis. They are also vigorous advocates, and government officialdom is as often their opponent as their partner. It may be natural for these representatives to be more jaded and cynical -- worn down by the daily grind -- than is perhaps warranted. That said, they are also some of the most informed sources outside of the government, and their unanimous views cannot be dismissed lightly. Clearly -- as we have always known -- election assistance may be a necessary, but certainly not sufficient, precondition for the next elections to be free and fair. GODFREY