YOUR VISIT TO ARMENIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L YEREVAN 001010 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/DAS MATT BRYZA E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/26/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL AM SUBJECT: YOUR VISIT TO ARMENIA Classified By: Ambassador John M. Evans for reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) We look forward to welcoming you on your first trip to the region wearing both your co-chair and DAS hats. The situation on the ground here in Yerevan has changed somewhat since your last visit in March. While your visit will be brief, your meetings with key leaders will offer us an opportunity to move forward on several fronts. ¶2. (C) Yerevan is managing the spin of the failure of Bucharest far better than it did following Ramouillet. Now that they have recovered from the initial shock of the co-chairs' June 22 statement, the Armenians have clearly staked out the high ground, claiming that whereas Armenia was ready to take the deal on the table, it was Azerbaijan which balked. Whether this assertion is true or not, all of Armenia's leaders have picked up the theme, and you should expect to hear this refrain in your meetings with President Kocharian, FM Oskanian, and Parliamentary Speaker Torosian. A healthy, vigorous, very public discussion of the elements of the deal on the table continues in Armenia. The public here had been prepared, to a certain degree, for release of these elements, as they had been "leaked" to the press from time to time over the past year. All of Armenia's credible leaders acknowledge publicly that withdrawal from at least most of the occupied territories must precede any deal. In this, at least, Armenia's public is being prepared for peace. ¶3. (C) Armenia's political situation is heating up, even though elections are still nearly ten months away. After the largely self-induced political flameout of former Parliament Speaker Artur Baghdassarian, the Republican Party of PM Markarian is clearly ascendant. When Defense Minister Serzh Sargsian joined the party on July 22, a stampede of business and political heavyweights (not all of whom qualify as solid citizens) joined the Republicans as well. Kocharian has not publicly backed any party, but we hear he may be considering throwing his support behind the inexperienced "Prosperous Armenia" party as a counterbalance to the Republican juggernaut. ¶4. (C) Our efforts with the international community to build democratic institutions in advance of elections continue. Key discussions are now ongoing in the parliament about changes to the electoral code, and a meeting with the soft-spoken current Parliament Speaker Tigran Torisian would be an opportunity to advance this process. Torosian was one of the key authors of the amendments to Armenia's constitution, which -- although they were largely supported by the international community -- were adopted in a seriously flawed referendum last November. ¶5. (C) You were on the front pages of Armenia's press every day for nearly two weeks following your interviews in late June. Discussion about the NK elements released by the co-chairs in Vienna has become more general; it took some time before the press here fully acknowledged that this was not a solo act, but rather the fully-cleared position of all three co-chairs. You can usefully underscore the unanimity of the co-chairs in any public remarks in Armenia. Press coverage of Ambassador-designate Hoagland's confirmation hearings continues, but you should not allow it to distract you from the main business at hand. EVANS