Request for DVC with Editor and Publisher of the Cook

UNCLAS WELLINGTON 000797 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR IIP/G/EA - TVOSE AND RFHOLDEN; EAP/PD - AEGRIMES; JBOOKBINDER, RHOLDEN, TSKIPPER; EAP/ANP E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OIIP SCUL SUBJECT: Request for DVC with Editor and Publisher of the Cook Report, Charlie Cook, Who Analyzes US Elections and National Political Trends ¶1. PROGRAM DESCRIPTION: Post requests a DVC with Charlie Cook, which will look at the outcome of the 2006 midterm elections and how they affect the Presidency, US foreign policy, and US policy in New Zealand in particular. ¶2. Preferred Activity Date, Fiscal Year, and Quarter: This is an FY07 program, requested for a few days after the midterm elections -- ideally the week starting November 13 US time; first quarter; 6:00 pm EST - noon NZ time of the following day. ¶3. JUSTIFICATION OF PROGRAM: The national climate for the 2006 midterm elections portends big changes, yet race-by-race analyses reveal formidable odds against a Democratic takeover of either the House or the Senate. Voters' unhappiness over the direction of the country, Congress's low approval ratings, President Bush's job-approval scores, and Democrats' advantage on the generic congressional ballot test all suggest that Democrats should be able to seize the House and possibly the Senate. Post regards such a DVC as an occasion for its contacts to discuss election issues directly with Charlie Cook -- widely regarded as one of the nation's leading authorities on US elections and political trends -- as an exciting opportunity. The New York Times has called Cook, "one of the best political handicappers in the nation" and notes that The Cook Political Report is "a newsletter that both parties regard as authoritative." David Broder of The Washington Post considers Charlie Cook as "perhaps the best non-partisan tracker of Congressional races." ¶4. MPP THEME AND EXPECTED AUDIENCE: MPP GOAL 08-01, Mutual Understanding - Elections. Audience Expected: To include members of the New Zealand government, including members of Parliament; local politicians, lobbyists, political consultants, government officials, members of foreign embassies, academics, opinion-makers, policy-makers, members of the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs (NZIIA),and the media. ¶5. NAME OF SPECIALIST REQUIRED: Charlie Cook Contact Details: Cook Political Report The Watergate 600 New Hampshire Ave NW Washington, DC 20037 Phone: 202-739-8525 Email: cookreport@nationaljournal.com See also: http://www.cookpolitical.com/default.php "The Cook Political Report" to view Charlie Cook's two weekly columns for National Journal magazine and CongressDaily/AM & http://www.cookpolitical.com/about/bios/cook. php Cook's bio. Note: Should Mr Cook be unavailable, Post's preference is for a non-partisan commentator (journalist) or two reps, one from the DNC, the other from the RNC. ¶6. POST PROJECT OFFICER: Control officer: Christine Vivian Office phone: 644-462-6112; Fax: 644-499-0490 Email: cvivian@actrix.gen.nz / vivianc@state.gov TECHNICAL OFFICER: Ola Thorsen Office phone: 644-462-6015, Fax: 644-499-0490 Cell: 6427-451-2535 Email: thorsenO@state.gov LOCATION AND TELEPHONE NUMBERS: ISDN numbers: 644-939-7519 Coord. Line: 644-462-6150 U.S. Embassy, Wellington has a polycom viewstation. 384K ¶7. Please advise soonest. Many Thanks. MCCORMICK