LABOUR LOSES SUPPORT AMID POISONOUS BODY POLITIC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000756 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE FOR D (FRITZ),EAP/FO, AND EAP/ANP NSC FOR VICTOR CHA SECDEF FOR OSD/ISD LIZ PHU PACOM FOR J01E/J2/J233/J5/SJFHQ E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV NZ SUBJECT: LABOUR LOSES SUPPORT AMID POISONOUS BODY POLITIC REF: Wellington 735 Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) PM Helen Clark's withering attack on National Party leader Dr. Don Brash has sent National surging ahead in latest NZ political polls. Late last week, Clark called for a halt to smears on MPs' personal lives and, in the next sentence, called Brash "corrosive and cancerous". National claimed the PM's attack was designed to distract attention from National's allegations the Government had illegally used public money on its electoral campaign. The Nats' prediction that the name calling would backfire against Labour appears to have been borne out in the polls. Labour's problems are compounded by the Greens decision not to support Labour's proposal for legislation validating Labour's election spending. Polls signal public backlash over Labour's tactics -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) In the backwash of allegations of election misspending (reftel) and widespread public disquiet over Labour's counterattacks against Don Brash, the latest poll from Colmar Brunton, which has historically favored the National party, finds that National has moved 11 points ahead of Labour (49% to 38%). Labour has dropped 5 points and National has gained 4 points since the last poll in August. Government approval had dropped 6 points to 38%, with disapproval climbing 8% to nearly half of all voters. Although Brash climbed 3% and Clark's dipped 1% in the Preferred PM stakes, he still trails her 36% to 18%. A snap Herald Digipoll survey, published September 26, tracked the Colmar Brunton poll with National at 45.7% and Labour at 38% among decided voters. Although the 7.7 point gap in party vote remains the same as the last Herald's poll in August, there was significant change in personal polling where Brash climbed 3.5 points to 25.9% while Clark dropped a further 2 points to 50.4% (which is down 6.6% from April). ¶3. (SBU) These findings will cause considerable angst for Labour, especially as the UMR poll, published September 11, showed similar results. UMR are Labour's pollsters, so the mutually reinforcing results are even more ominous and the Government cannot easily dispute them. Public displeased by PM's vitriolic attack on Brash -------------- -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Already uncomfortable about the heightened levels of personal attacks in current political discourse, Kiwis are apparently shocked by Clark's use of extreme rhetoric to hit back at National. Still smarting from having to deny rumors about her husband Peter Davis' sexuality this week (reftel),Clark responded by unleashing a ferocious verbal assault on National, and in particular Brash himself. ¶5. (SBU) In a radio interview, Clark made it clear that accusations of corruption by National were intolerable in a Western democracy and would not be taken lying down. She said the political atmosphere had become difficult since National began throwing around "extreme and polarizing rhetoric", and reminded listeners that Brash had met with and accepted funds from "the extremist" Christian Exclusive Brethren. Claiming that senior National MPs know that Brash is not fit to lead his party or the country, Clark announced that "Labour regards Dr Brash as a corrosive and cancerous person within the New Zealand political system." Clark disputed that this was a personal attack on Brash, instead claiming it was an attack on National's "brand." However she pointedly noted that the brand cannot be separated from Brash the man. Brash's response was to urge Clark to "get out of the gutter." He claimed that her comments would backfire on Labour. Additional problems for Labour -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Applying more pressure on Labour, its political ally, the Green Party, has announced that it would not support any laws validating election spending deemed to be unlawful. Labour has toyed with the idea of introducing contentious retroactive legislation to validate its alleged overspending during the last election campaign. The Greens refusal to support any such legislation means that Labour WELLINGTON 00000756 002 OF 002 will have to rely on the support of both NZ First and United Future to secure safe passage through the House. NZ First leader (and Foreign Minister) Winston Peters is on official travel and his views on the campaign funding legislation are unknown. But Peters -- a champion mudslinger in Parliament -- has called on both Labour and National to stop the damaging rhetoric. ¶7. (SBU) Comment: Clark's strongly-worded comments send an unambiguous message to National, and indeed to voters, that while MPs private lives are off-limits, political personas are still very much fair game. The PM's comments came at a time when both the media and public have urged a halt to politicians' vicious personal attacks. Many NZers thought her comments over-the-top, even for current standards. The Herald Digipoll revealed that 73.6% of those polled found the "corrosive and cancerous" comment was "not okay". (Among the critics is a Kiwi with cancer who called the PM's remarks insensitive.) The tactic of questioning Brash's political worth is Labour's latest attempt to shift public focus from the imminent release of the Auditor-General's report on illegal election spending. Expect Labour to use other tactics in the coming weeks, such as seeking to highlight National's high proportion of anonymous donations and its links to the Exclusive Brethren. Keegan