POLAND'S PROPOSED EUROPEAN ENERGY SECURITY TREATY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 000380 SIPDIS STATE FOR P, EUR, E, EUR/NCE, EUR/ERA, EUR/RPM, EB/ESC EUR FOR A/S DFRIED, DAS MPEKALA, DAS MBRYZA EUR/NCE FOR DKOSTELANCIK AND MSESSUMS, EB/ESC FOR SGALLOGLY AND RGARVERICK DOE FOR LEKIMOFF USDOC FOR 4232/ITA/MAC/EUR/JBURGESS, MWILSON, JKIMBALL E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2016 TAGS: ENRG EPET PREL PL SUBJECT: POLAND'S PROPOSED EUROPEAN ENERGY SECURITY TREATY REF: WARSAW 312 Classified By: Economic Counselor Richard Rorvig, reasons 1.4(B) and (D) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Poland continues to consult with EU partners on its proposed European Energy Security Treaty. Deputy Minister of Economy Naimski requests a meeting with Under Secretary for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns March 20 or 21 to discuss mechanisms in the NATO Treaty that can be transferred to the proposed Energy Security Treaty. He would also like to meet with Secretary of Energy Bodman to discuss the proposed treaty. End Summary. -------------- Poles Optimistic about Proposed Treaty -------------- ¶2. (C) The Polish Ministry of Economy continues to work on Warsaw's proposed European Energy Security Treaty. Pawel Konzal, Advisor to the Minster of Economy, said that initial reactions from other European leaders have been positive. According to Konzal, Prime Minister Marcinkiewicz discussed the proposed treaty with UK Prime Minister Tony Blair and French PM de Villepin and received initially positive responses from both. Konzal reported that the UK has been very helpful from the beginning and that the British representative to the EU Energy Working Group has been meeting with him in Brussels to develop a set of core principles for energy security. They hope to finish developing the set of common principles the week of March 6, after the EU energy green paper is completed. ¶3. (C) Konzal stated that Deputy Minister of Economy Piotr Naimski would like to visit the U.S. in late March. In Washington, Naimski would like to meet with Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns to discuss mechanisms and articles in the NATO Treaty that could be transferred to the proposed energy security treaty. In addition, Naimski would like to meet with Secretary of Energy Bodman and representatives of the NSC, the Department of Commerce and the Trade Development Agency. Naimski would also appreciate a briefing from the Central Intelligence Agency on the current energy security situation in the region. Konzal believes that Naimski will have more detailed information on the proposed energy treaty available for his meetings, and will also be very interested in the U.S. reaction. -------------- Not all EU observers are so Optimistic -------------- ¶4. (C) The Ministry of Economy is planning a briefing for EU embassies on the proposed treaty on March 9 in preparation for the March 14 EU Energy Ministers meeting. Informal comments some of our EU colleagues in Warsaw indicate that there is considerable skepticism that the treaty fill find enough support. German Warsaw Embassy Economic Counselor Volker Berresheim (protect) told us that, while Germany still has expressed no official reaction to the proposal, it is not likely to be enthusiastic. The German Embassy in Warsaw thinks that the treaty is more a result of Polish "angst" than a practical response to a real problem. The Germans are frustrated that the GOP does not yet seem to understand that the EU would never allow an EU economy to collapse from outside pressure. Poland's energy usage is minuscule when compared to the entire EU. Poland's needs, in a crisis, could be met by relatively small diversions from other members. Furthermore, the Germans believe that Poland has considerable gas storage capacity in Western Poland, which it has not used because it has not wanted to spend the money to fill the reserve. The Germans are listening politely but are yet to be convinced of the need for a treaty. They believe that the French are similarly skeptical. In this regard, Polish MFA America's desk deputy director Jaroszynski told the DCM that he understands the French have serious problems with the proposal for two reasons: 1) it proposes a formal treaty rather than a simple government to government agreement, and 2) it uses a NATO framework rather than an EU framework. Separately, the UK DCM (protect) has also told us of HMG doubts that the proposed treaty could be negotiated in a timely manner - given the differences of opinion among EU Member States - or that it would be worth the effort. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) The new Polish government is expending considerable political capital in promoting its proposed energy treaty and views successful negotiation of the treaty as a major foreign policy goal. If the USG (and other key allies) decide that a formal treaty poses problems, it will be important to engage the Poles constructively as we explore our options for increasing energy security. Naimski's visit will be an opportunity to lay out alternative practical ways ahead. The challenge for the USG is to channel Poland's desire into effective and realistic means of achieving energy security, while making clear that this will require investments in storage of gas reserves and development of alternative sources through LNG terminals or additional pipelines. HILLAS