POLISH OPPOSITION RUNNING STRONG IN URBAN AREAS

UNCLAS WARSAW 002372 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PL SUBJECT: POLISH OPPOSITION RUNNING STRONG IN URBAN AREAS REF: A. WARSAW 2322 ¶B. KRAKOW 254 ¶1. In the final days before Poles vote in local and regional elections, opposition candidates are poised to capture a majority of Polish cities and are running ahead of the ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS) in regional assemblies (sejmiks). With multiple candidates running in most mayoral races, runoffs are likely in a majority of cities, most notably Warsaw. As reported in reftels, the Warsaw race is viewed locally as a referendum on the Kaczynskis, whereas in most cities local personalities and issues dominate. Latest polls in Warsaw show a tight race between former PM Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz and Civic Platform's (PO's) Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz, with the United Left polling strongly enough to force a run-off in two weeks. In that run-off, Gronkiewicz-Waltz holds a slender lead. Polska A Opts for the Opposition -------------- ¶2. Like the red-blue divide so widely discussed in American politics, Polish cities are often lumped together as "Polska A," leaning disproportionately to the centrist opposition. Except for Marcinkiewicz in Warsaw, and incumbent mayor Jerzy Kropiwnicki in Lodz (Poland's second largest city),both of whom are backed by PiS, candidates backed by PO and United Left are running ahead in every other major urban area. Of the dozen largest cities in Poland, only two candidates -- in Wroclaw in the southwest, and in Gydinia in the north -- are expected to win a majority and thus avoid a runoff. ¶3. The polarization that figures so prominently on the national political stage is much more muted in local races. In Wroclaw, incumbent mayor Rafal Dutkiewicz unusually has the endorsement of PiS, PO and the United Left, and oversees a city council with a working PiS-PO coalition that is unfathomable elsewhere. Nonetheless, the long arm of national politics can be felt in some races. In Szczecin, on the German border, former PiS Minister of Finance, Teresa Lubinska, is running third in a tough race behind PO and United Left candidates. Although widely recognized as a PiS politician, Lubinska's billboards shout "independent," in huge letters, with the PiS logo relegated to the corner. Lubinska's campaign materials feature endorsements from Marcinkiewicz (whose doctoral thesis she reviewed at the University of Szczecin) and former FM Wladyslaw Bartoszewski, who is not a member of PiS. Notably absent is PM Jaroslaw Kaczynski, in whose Chancellery Lubinska nominally works. Influence of Party Blocs is Minimal in Mayoral Races -------------- -------------- ¶4. The elections this Sunday got the final green light November 3 when the Constitutional Tribunal's ruled the new local election law constitutional. The most controversial aspect of that law permits political blocs between parties, and provides for the distribution of votes for parties that fall below the parliamentary threshold among larger parties with which they are blocked. This will likely play a role in rural areas that are historically supportive of the League of Polish Families, Samoobrona (both blocked with PiS) and the Polish Peasant's Party (blocked with PO). In urban areas, the blocking effect will be minimal. In Szczecin, for instance, Lubinska's campaign manager pointedly asked poloff to ask Samoobrona's candidate, Mateusz Piskorski, to throw his support to Lubinska in a second round. Reflecting the fragile state of the ruling coalition, when we asked Piskorski whether he would do so, he shrugged his shoulders and said "why should I do that?" He said he would likelier vote for the United Left candidate, who is a well known and highly regarded local politician, and a former member of the SLD government. ¶5. Comment: All eyes will be on Warsaw when the opposition and PiS will be poised to claim a "historic victory." If Marcinkiewicz prevails, PiS will highlight PO's unexpected losses last year and failure to win the critical race this year. If Gronkiewicz-Waltz wins, PO will claim their victory is a rebuke of the Kaczynski government. End Comment. ASHE