WORKING WITH THE KACZYNSKI BROTHERS - GO STRAIGHT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 001721 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR A/S FRIED AND DAS PEKALA NSC FOR SENIOR DIRECTOR JUDITH ANSLEY WHITE HOUSE FOR OVP - COL JOE WOOD E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/06/2011 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR OVIP PL SUBJECT: WORKING WITH THE KACZYNSKI BROTHERS - GO STRAIGHT TO THE SOURCE Classified By: Classified By: Ambassador Victor Ashe, reasons 1.4(b) an d (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Now that PM Jarek Kaczynski has consolidated power domestically, the Polish government is starting to re-consider its position in the world. Jarek Kaczynski has very little foreign affairs experience, but he has also chosen to take foreign policy decision-making authority on himself. The best approach on bilateral relations is therefore to go straight to the Prime Minister himself. Jarek Kaczynski does not have any real foreign policy vision other than historical distrust of Germany and Russia, but he instinctively identifies with the U.S., providing an opportunity to influence his strategic vision and cement Poland's foreign policy even more closely to U.S. interests. END SUMMARY. Where things stand -------------- ¶2. (C) With President Lech Kaczynski in office eight months, and his brother Jarek Kaczynski now confirmed as Prime Minister, the Law and Justice party (PiS) has unexpectedly established dominance over the government coalition in Poland to a degree unparalleled in the post-Communist era. As twins who instinctively understand one another, they can rule with a singleness of purpose between head of state and head government perhaps never before seen in a parliamentary democracy. ¶3. (C) After his confirmation July 19, Jarek made clear quickly that he is in charge of every aspect of GOP policy and decision-making. His advisors have no real policy voice but rather simply "channel" his views. By contrast to the Kaczynskis' strong grip on domestic affairs, Poland's foreign policy is floundering. Already under Marcinkiewicz the PiS-led government lacked expertise following the May 2006 appointment of Kaczynski insider Anna Fotyga as Foreign Minister. Defense Minister Radek Sikorski is the only experienced foreign policy practitioner in the government, but he is not in the inner circle and the Kaczynskis are apparently circumscribing his autonomy more and more. What it means -------------- ¶4. (C) The concentration of power in the Kaczynski brothers, or more accurately in Jarek Kaczynski, presents challenges and opportunities. Jarek is an extremely intelligent and confident politician, but he has no experience in governance. He shares with brother Lech a very limited exposure to foreign affairs or even foreign travel in general, which has led the twins to either distrust or ignore external events. They are also thin-skinned and tend to overreact to "insults" or criticism of Poland, contributing to the clumsy decision to cancel the July 2006 Weimar Triangle meeting in apparent response to a satirical German press piece about Lech Kaczynski. This diplomatic gaffe exacerbated the already poor image of the Kaczynskis. ¶5. (C) However, Jarek Kaczynski is an extremely intelligent and gifted politician, and he learns from his mistakes. In an August 4 policy speech, he acknowledged candidly that Poland suffered from "image problems abroad" and tasked the Foreign Ministry with developing an effective public diplomacy campaign to reverse the trend. As he learns more and more about foreign affairs and comes to know the leaders and governments of key partners, one can expect Kaczynski to turn his talents and intellect to restoring Poland's foreign policy reputation. Why Poland matters -------------- ¶6. (C) While Jarek Kaczynski has not yet figured out how to deal with Europe, there is no question that partnership with the United States is at the top of his foreign policy agenda.Poland has been a staunch U.S. ally within NATO, a prominent Coalition partner, and a long-time contributor to peacekeeping missions in the Balkans and the Middle East. Poland still commands a Multinational Division in Iraq, and was one of only three nations to put troops on the ground with the U.S. at the beginning of OIF. The Poles will deploy up to 1000 troops to Afghanistan in 2007, including a Special Forces unit that will operate in the eastern mountains. Poland was a founding contributor to UNIFIL and currently has over 200 troops in Lebanon; the GOP is considering increasing its contingent for UNIFIL-plus. ¶9. (C) Poland is a key regional player, mentoring and supporting its eastern neighbors as well as emerging democracies in the Caucasus and Central Asia. The Polish perspective on "Eastern Policy" has also brought a fresh pragmatism to EU deliberations. Poland took the lead within the EU in supporting the Orange Revolution, while Polish engagement in democratization efforts in Belarus are significant. The GOP is developing a strategic partnership with Georgia following a recent visit by President Mikhail Saakashvili. ¶10. (C) Defense transformation on Polish soil has a decidedly American flavor. The first of 48 F-16 aircraft will arrive in November 2006, giving Poland the most modern fighter in Europe. American joint exercises, training and security assistance mean that Polish armed forces think more like U.S. forces than almost any other ally. The USSOCOM and USSOCEUR Commanders rate Polish special forces as premier partners for U.S. SOF. ¶11. (C) Finally, Poland is committed to hosting a U.S. missile defense (MD) site, should the President decide to deploy a "Third Site" to Europe. Despite public concerns and doubts over sovereignty and "extra-territoriality," the Polish government has consistently expressed support for MD. With the Kaczynski brothers in favor, there is no question that the Polish parliament would approve a bilateral MD agreement. How we approach the Kaczynskis -------------- ¶12. (C) The Kaczynskis are the decision-makers on foreign policy, with a few close aides who act as trusted messengers but not as policy advisors per se. Therefore, it is crucial that the USG focus its energies on the PM himself. The first opportunity will likely be Jarek Kaczynski's visit to Washington and his September 13 meetings with the Vice President and the Secretary. Lech Kaczynski's successful meeting with the President in February 2006 set the stage, but it is the Prime Minister who holds the real power. ¶13. (C) Jarek Kaczynski is more assertive and detail-oriented than his brother and can be expected to engage in depth on a wide range of issues. While deeply religious with strong views on domestic issues, Jarek Kaczynski appears to have few foreign policy preconceptions, other than his visceral distrust of Germany and Russia and instinctive affinity for the U.S. Like other successful nationalist leaders, he views foreign policy through a domestic political prism. Kaczynski is, however, a quick learner who is already recognizing that a poor image abroad can be just as damaging to his personal prestige as a domestic political gaffe. Well informed arguments appealing to both his patriotism and his intellect stand the best chance of success in helping keep Polish foreign policy vision in line with U.S. interests. ASHE