ARE THE KACZYNSKIS WOBBLY ON DEMOCRACY?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 WARSAW 001169

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2021
TAGS: PGOV ECON PL PREL
SUBJECT: ARE THE KACZYNSKIS WOBBLY ON DEMOCRACY?

REF: A. WARSAW 1074 AND PREVIOUS


B. WARSAW 1161

Classified By: Ambassador Victor Ashe for
reasons 1.5 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: One month into the political marriage of
convenience which delivered a long-sought parliamentary
majority, the Kaczynski brothers are moving forward with
their agenda to beat back the last vestiges of Polish
Communism by means that their critics charge are
anti-democratic. Their fixation with vanquishing the Polish
"Uklad," the shadowy network of post-Communists who have
benefited from sweet, if rigged, business deals resonates
with the part of the electorate that feels that they have not
benefited from the spoils of the new Poland. While democracy
is not imperiled in Poland, the coalition deal with
troublesome fringe parties and sweeping reforms that permit
open-ended investigations of businesses raise concerns that
PiS's drive to create Poland's "Fourth Republic" may cut some
corners on democratic checks and balances. End Summary.

PiS's Success Owed to Skillful Attack on Polish Elites
-------------- --------------


2. (U) Poland's Law and Justice (PiS) party pulled off twin
upsets in last fall's parliamentary and presidential
elections, on the basis of a skillful political campaign
attacking "Polska 'A'," urban and educated Poles who have
reaped enormous benefits since Communism ended in 1989. In
fact PiS itself was surprised that its message resonated so
well with "Polska 'B'," older, rural, and devoutly Catholic
Poles who still make up a majority of the population. The
PiS agenda was packed with proposals to revamp the government
-- security services, police, military -- to remove vestiges
of Poland's Communist past and to create a stronger President
under a "Fourth Republic."

Need for a Parliamentary Majority...
--------------


3. (U) PiS's efforts to move forward on its domestic agenda
was stymied by its inability to muster a parliamentary
majority in the Polish Sejm, which led to a short-lived
quasi-coalition with the ultra-Catholic League of Polish
Families (LPR) and the populist Self Defense (SO). The three
parties signed a "Stabilization Pact" in early February,
2006, in which the three parties pledged to support a package
of proposed laws. In exchange PiS agreed to hold off on
threatened early elections which SO did not want and LPR
feared would spell its political demise. No sooner than it
was announced, the Stabilization Pact began to fray, and
collapsed within six weeks. Ironically, it was these same
parties that PiS turned to in April when it decided to form a
coalition that would provide for a parliamentary majority.
The formal coalition deal between the parties led to a
reshuffle of the cabinet on May 5, 2006, and the elevation of
SO's Andrzej Lepper and LPR's Roman Giertych to positions of
prominence.

...but at What Cost?
--------------


4. (U) The new coalition has yet to deliver on President
Kaczynski's promise of a stable political situation. Many
Poles, who expected a PiS-PO center right coalition, are
dismayed by the elevation of Lepper and Giertych, who
recently polled as the country's least trusted and most
unpopular politicians, to Deputy Premierships. Giertych has
been the greater lightning rod for criticism, owing to the
prominence of his position as Minister of Education, his
efforts to bring members of the anti-Semitic youth arm of his
party to the ministry, and proposals last week to teach
patriotism -- with a heavy dose of Catholicism -- in Polish
schools. Neither Lepper nor Giertych, who rode to political
prominence by virtue of their outsider status, are ideal,
quiet junior partners. Both are already chafing at their
junior partner status. Lepper and Giertych called a press
conference June 5 in which they demanded an investigation
relating to their charge that PiS was using Special Services
police to undermine their parties. Lepper also repeated a
demand that his party be permitted to nominate its own
candidates to the government's "power" ministries -- Defense,
Foreign Affairs, Special Services and Interior -- a demand
unlikely to be met by PiS which seeks to control the excesses
(and influence) of their junior partners.

Concern Over Open-Ended, Broader Police Powers
-------------- -


5. (C) PiS officials are pleased, however, that the
coalition has provided a working majority to move forward on
legislation to dismantle what it calls the "uklad," which
roughly translates as a "shady deal," and refers to a shadowy
network of former Communists who now make up part of today's
Polish elite, and whom PiS claims wields power behind the
scenes based on corruption. The uklad was, and remains, a
favorite political target for PiS. To be sure there are
problems of corruption, but there is real concern that PiS
efforts to establish wide-ranging investigative committees
will not clean up corruption, but be used, instead, to go
after their political enemies. A case in point is the new
Central Anti-Corruption Office, the centerpiece of PiS's
domestic agenda. Legislation to create the office was
debated and approved last week in the Polish Senate and voted
by the Sejm on June 8, and signed into law by President
Kaczynski on June 13. Consultations with the international
business community led to dozens of proposed changes that
were uniformly rejected. Critics point out that under the
legislation, an anti-corruption official can be placed in
private companies -- at their expense -- to run open-ended
investigations into vaguely defined corrupt practices. The
business community was described by one official as
"apoplectic" over the lack of judicial oversight and shaky
evidentiary standards outlined in the law. Many worry that
PiS could use the body to go after critics.


6. (U) But this sort of sweeping investigative scope is not
unique. Since taking office, in addition to the
Anti-Corruption Office, PiS has proposed the creation of a
permanent standing Committee on Law and Justice, made up of
members of the Sejm, Senate and judiciary, whose broad
parliamentary mandate would be to investigate "abuse." Many,
including Poland's Constitutional Court, have questioned the
legality of what some call a "star chamber." Poland's
constitution requires that investigative commissions have a
clear mandate focused on specific issues. But the Commission
remains one of PiS's top priorities.


7. (U) The Sejm also recently voted to set up a Sejm
banking investigatory commission, also with a broad mandate
to investigate abuses in privatization deals dating back to

1989. One target is Polish National Bank President, Leszek
Balcerowicz, who is an outspoken critic of the Kaczynskis,
and who has been a favorite target of both PiS and SO for his
role in the shock economic therapy administered in the early
years of the transition from communism to a free market
economy. Another target is Hanna Grankiewicz-Waltz, a former
President of the Polish National Bank, and the opposition
Civic Platform's candidate for the upcoming mayoral race in
Warsaw. The commission has yet to begin public hearings, but
opposition parties have questioned the constitutionality of
its open-ended mandate. In addition to the commission, PiS
has said it wants to legislate changes in the banking
supervisory structure that some fear would reduce the
independence of the Central Bank.


8. (U) Of greatest concern to some critics have been PiS's
verbal attacks against the Constitutional Court, which has
struck down some pieces of legislation and the boycott by PiS
leadership, including President Lech Kaczynski, of formal
court ceremonies, such as the opening of the court sessions
or other court events historically attended by the President,
Prime Minister and Speakers of the Sejm and Senate. Despite
the war of words and ceremonies, however, PiS has promised to
appoint judges more to its liking when seats come open, but
has proposed no legislative or constitutional changes to the
court or its mandate.

Concern Over Politicization of Public Offices
--------------


9. (U) Although appointing political allies to positions of
prominence is nothing new to democracies, PiS's heavy handed
tactics to stack organizations with their cronies have come
under fire. One striking case is Ecofund (reftel B),a donor
organization made up of the United States and five Western
European partners that funds environmental projects in
Poland. European donors charge that the Ecofund's work has
been overly politicized by PiS officials at the Ministry of
Finance. The United States and other members walked out of
an Ecofund meeting in late May when the Ecofund chair forced
the removal of three independent members of the Ecofund
board. A budget impasse for six months stalled projects, and
led to the threat that several member states may withdraw
entirely.

Concern Over Controlling Public Airways
--------------


10. (U) Since taking the reins of government, the Kaczynskis
have honed a nationalist message as part of a spirited
campaign against their political foes -- lawyers, bankers,
judges, the Constitutional Court, and the "liberal" press
have all been singled out for criticism for resisting the
Kaczynskis' vision of a freer and fairer Poland. For
example, in December PiS approved changes to the composition
of the public Radio and Television Board (KRRiT) which
reduced its membership from nine to five, and then stacked
the membership so that all members were from PiS, LPR and SO.
The Constitutional Court intervened to say that the
President's appointment of his close political ally, Elzbieta
Kruk, to the KRRiT chairmanship, was unconstitutional, that
the proposed changes had been rushed through Parliament
without adherence to proper procedure, and that the
government could not use KRRiT to investigate the ethics of
journalists, as it had proposed. PiS leader Jaroslaw
Kaczynski's reaction was to criticize the Constitutional
Court's meddling, and to state that "Poland has no free
media." PiS did subsequently comply with the requirements of
the court, and Kruk was elected to the chairmanship on May 17
by fellow council members, as the court stipulated.

Concern Over Backsliding on Local Elections
--------------


11. (U) With attention drawn to next fall's local elections,
SO's Andrzej Lepper in May proposed rolling back provision of
the 2004 local election law that permitted the direct
election of mayors. Lepper's proposal would have returned
Poland to a system whereby some mayoral races would be
decided by town or city councils, and was expressly
calculated to boost SO's electoral prospects against the
Polish Peasant's Party (PSL),which has unusual strength at
the local level. PiS, always with an eye to best its primary
rival, PO, initially flirted with supporting the proposal,
despite the awkward optics of retreating from a system of
direct elections. Last week, however, PiS abandoned plans for
rolling back the electoral system, in response to widespread
criticism.

Concern Over Protecting Minorities
--------------


12. (U) As reported septels, Warsaw rabbi (and American
citizen) Michael Schudrich was physically assaulted following
the knifing of a Jewish student in Krakow. PiS officials,
including President Kaczynski and PM Marcinkiewicz responded
swiftly to decry the attack. Concern lingers, however, over
the lukewarm reaction by Roman Giertych, whose party's youth
group, All-Poland Youth (MW) is known for its anti-Semitism.
Giertych denied that LPR was anti-Semitic but added blandly
that "hooliganism can happen anywhere." His failure to
squarely rebuke the assault results in an ongoing perception
that his party quietly tolerates such views. He similarly
did not repudiate calls by MW leaders for violence against
the June 10 gay rights march. Giertych called for both MW
and the organizers of the gay rights parade to cancel their
events, noting that "emotions run high on both sides,"
suggesting mutual responsibility for what has been one-sided
violence. Moreover, Giertych added that it was a scandal
that gays and lesbians would march openly, further burnishing
his image as the protector of moral values.

Comment
--------------


13. (C) Comment: We are not afraid for the future of Polish
democracy, but the Kaczynskis have a narrow vision of
political orthodoxy, and are now formally allied with parties
that have an even narrower view. PiS efforts to create a
"Fourth Republic" free of the corruption and influence of
lingering communist-era figures, runs the risk of
constraining civil liberties and restricting business
practices. The jury is still out on the Kaczynskis' efforts
to remake Poland, but even some of their harshest critics say
privately that they are not worried about the state of
Poland's democracy. PiS efforts to put political appointees
in high level ministry positions and on government boards is
a normal democratic occurence. We will continue to watch
developments and urge caution where we have a stake (such as
in lobbying on the business implications of the
anti-corruption bill). But like PiS's critics, we have faith
in Poland's democratic institutions and the Polish
electorate. The Kaczynskis are not wobbly on democracy but
in their single-minded determination to build a Fourth
Republic, they will be tempted to cut corners -- and this
will continue raising questions in Poland and abroad. End
comment.

HILLAS